Global and regional assessments of unsustainable groundwater use in irrigated agriculture

Groundwater is an essential input to agriculture world-wide, but it is clear that current rates of groundwater use are unsustainable in the long term. This dissertation assesses both current use of groundwater for country- to global-scale agriculture, and looks at the future of groundwater. The focus is on 1) quantifying food directly produced as a result of groundwater use across spatially-varying agricultural systems, 2) projecting future groundwater demands with consideration of climate change and human decision-making, and 3) understanding the system dynamics of groundwater re-use through surface water systems. All three are addressed using a process-based model designed to simulate both natural and human-impacted water systems. Groundwater is an essential input to agriculture world-wide, but it is clear that current rates of groundwater use are unsustainable in the long term. This dissertation assesses both current use of groundwater for country- to global-scale agriculture, and looks at the future of groundwater. The focus is on 1) quantifying food directly produced as a result of groundwater use across spatially-varying agricultural systems, 2) projecting future groundwater demands with consideration of climate change and human decision-making, and 3) understanding the system dynamics of groundwater re-use through surface water systems. All three are addressed using a process-based model designed to simulate both natural and human-impacted water systems. Human decisions about water resource management can impact both the demand and sustainability of groundwater use. Chapter 2 takes an interdisciplinary approach to projecting India’s future (to 2050) groundwater demands, combining hydrology and econometric modeling. The econometric model projects how humans make decisions to expand or contract the irrigated land area of crops in response to climate change. Even in areas with precipitation increases, human decisions to expand irrigated areas led to increasing demands for groundwater. We additionally assessed the potential impact of a large water infrastructure project to alleviate groundwater demands in India, and found that maximum alleviation (up to 16%) was dependent upon the storage volume and location of new reservoirs. One proposed method for reducing the world’s demand for groundwater is to increase the efficiency of agricultural water use. However, these same inefficiencies cause a portion of extracted groundwater to enter surface water systems; it can then be reused, creating a complex system in which groundwater demand does not linearly decline with increased water use efficiency. Chapter 3 quantifies the amount of groundwater that enters surface water systems, the number of times this water is reused for agriculture, and the minimum amount of groundwater required by current agricultural systems in the hypothetical scenario of perfect irrigation efficiency

Future of Winter in Northeastern North America: Climate Indicators Portray Warming and Snow Loss that will Impact Ecosystems and Communities

Winters in northeastern North America have warmed faster than summers, with impacts on ecosystems and society. Global climate models (GCMs) indicate that winters will continue to warm and lose snow in the future, but uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of warming. Here, we project future trends in winter indicators under lower and higher climate-warming scenarios based on emission levels across northeastern North America at a fine spatial scale (1/16°) relevant to climate-related decision making. Under both climate scenarios, winters continue to warm with coincident increases in days above freezing, decreases in days with snow cover, and fewer nights below freezing. Deep snowpacks become increasingly short-lived, decreasing from a historical baseline of 2 months of subnivium habitat to warmer, higher-emissions climate scenario. Warmer winter temperatures allow invasive pests such as Adelges tsugae (Hemlock Woolly Adelgid) and Dendroctonus frontalis (Southern Pine Beetle) to expand their range northward due to reduced overwinter mortality. The higher elevations remain more resilient to winter warming compared to more southerly and coastal regions. Decreases in natural snowpack and warmer temperatures point toward a need for adaptation and mitigation in the multi-million-dollar winter-recreation and forest-management economies

Tracking environmental change using low-cost instruments during the winter-spring transition season

Author Posting. © University of California Press, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of University of California Press for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Burakowski, E., Sallade, S., Contosta, A., Sanders-DeMott, R., & Grogan, D. Tracking environmental change using low-cost instruments during the winter-spring transition season. American Biology Teacher, 84(4), (2022): 219–222, https://doi.org/10.1525/abt.2022.84.4.219.The winter-spring shoulder season, or vernal window, is a key period for ecosystem carbon, water, and energy cycling. Sometimes referred to as mud season, in temperate forests, this transitional season opens with the melting of snowpack in seasonally snow-covered forests and closes when the canopy fills out. Sunlight pours onto the forest floor, soils thaw and warm, and there is an uptick in soil respiration. Scientists hypothesize that this window of ecological opportunity will lengthen in the future; these changes could have implications across all levels of the ecosystem, including the availability of food and water in human systems. Yet, there remains a dearth of observations that track both winter and spring indicators at the same location. Here, we present an inquiry-based, low-cost approach for elementary to high school classrooms to track environmental changes in the winter-spring shoulder season. Engagement in hypothesis generation and the use of claim, evidence, and reasoning practices are coupled with field measurement protocols, which provides teachers and students an authentic research experience that allows for a place-based understanding of local ecosystems and their connection to climate change.This study was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF-MSB #1802726 and NSF-1920908) and the United States Forest Service CitSci Fund (#18-CS-11242307-044)

Interplay of changing irrigation technologies and water reuse: example from the upper Snake River basin, Idaho, USA

Careful allotment of water resources for irrigation is critical for ensuring the resiliency of agriculture in semiarid regions, and modernizing irrigation technology to minimize inefficient water losses is an important tool for farmers and agricultural economies. While modernizing irrigation technology can achieve reductions in the nonbeneficial use of water, such as bare soil evaporation and nonconsumptive losses, water returned to the landscape is also reduced, often eliminating flow paths that other users rely on. In basins using a combination of surface and groundwater, replenishing aquifer storage by the managed aquifer recharge (MAR) of seasonally available water can mitigate the aquifer drawdown that results from reduced recharge when irrigation efficiency is improved. We examine the effects of MAR on the system-scale efficiency of modernizing irrigation technology and the resulting changes in the reuse of nonconsumptive losses, using a macroscale hydrologic model applied to the semiarid upper Snake River basin (USRB) of western Wyoming and southern Idaho, USA. Irrigation technologies were represented explicitly in the model, and available data informed baseline parameterizations of the irrigation technology. A suite of parameterizations were simulated that updated the existing technologies to be more efficient, both with and without sufficient MAR to cause a stabilization of the aquifer at the present-day head. As expected, simulated changes in irrigation technology resulted in greater downstream export of pristine water and a higher rate of aquifer drawdown when MAR was not simulated. Under current water use and cropping patterns, we were not able to simulate aquifer stabilization and maintain discharge downstream at any level of irrigation efficiency. We found support for the hypothesis that, as efficiency improves, less MAR is required to maintain a stable aquifer than when return flows are reduced due to increased efficiency. To evaluate the hypothesis, we defined the management benefit as a metric that compared the difference between the change in irrigation\u27s net recharge and the change in MAR required as irrigation technology became more efficient. The metric generally indicated that less MAR was needed than net recharge was lost, but only for the most efficient case did the management benefit exceed the MAR needed at the baseline to stabilize the aquifer. Increasing efficiency of irrigation technology reduced the reuse of the gross irrigation derived from prior nonconsumptive losses, but simulating MAR increased reuse for a given parameterization, leading to higher effective irrigation efficiency. We find that local groundwater storage that users depend on is generally more sensitive to management decisions than downstream flows, and the drawdown of the aquifer without MAR always exceeded any decrease in discharge induced by MAR. Improving resource sufficiency in semiarid systems like the USRB will require an array of solutions that will need to balance benefits to local and downstream users

Global and regional assessments of unsustainable groundwater use in irrigated agriculture

Groundwater is an essential input to agriculture world-wide, but it is clear that current rates of groundwater use are unsustainable in the long term. This dissertation assesses both current use of groundwater for country- to global-scale agriculture, and looks at the future of groundwater. The focus is on 1) quantifying food directly produced as a result of groundwater use across spatially-varying agricultural systems, 2) projecting future groundwater demands with consideration of climate change and human decision-making, and 3) understanding the system dynamics of groundwater re-use through surface water systems. All three are addressed using a process-based model designed to simulate both natural and human-impacted water systems. Irrigation can significantly increase crop production. Chapter 1 combines a hydrology model (WBM) with a crop model to quantify current crop production that is directly attributed to groundwater irrigation in China. Unsustainably-sourced groundwater — defined as groundwater extracted in excess of recharge — accounted for a quarter of China’s crop production, and had significant spatial variability. Climate variability and groundwater demand magnified one another in hot and dry years, causing increased irrigation demand at the same time as limited surface water supplies. Human decisions about water resource management can impact both the demand and sustainability of groundwater use. Chapter 2 takes an interdisciplinary approach to projecting India’s future (to 2050) groundwater demands, combining hydrology and econometric modeling. The econometric model projects how humans make decisions to expand or contract the irrigated land area of crops in response to climate change. Even in areas with precipitation increases, human decisions to expand irrigated areas led to increasing demands for groundwater. We additionally assessed the potential impact of a large water infrastructure project to alleviate groundwater demands in India, and found that maximum alleviation (up to 16%) was dependent upon the storage volume and location of new reservoirs. One proposed method for reducing the world’s demand for groundwater is to increase the efficiency of agricultural water use. However, these same inefficiencies cause a portion of extracted groundwater to enter surface water systems; it can then be reused, creating a complex system in which groundwater demand does not linearly decline with increased water use efficiency. Chapter 3 quantifies the amount of groundwater that enters surface water systems, the number of times this water is reused for agriculture, and the minimum amount of groundwater required by current agricultural systems in the hypothetical scenario of perfect irrigation efficiency