Selection of confounding variables should not be based on observed associations with exposure

In observational studies, selection of confounding variables for adjustment is often based on observed baseline incomparability. The aim of this study was to evaluate this selection strategy. We used clinical data on the effects of inhaled long-acting beta-agonist (LABA) use on the risk of mortality among patients with obstructive pulmonary disease to illustrate the impact of selection of confounding variables for adjustment based on baseline comparisons. Among 2,394 asthma and COPD patients included in the analyses, the LABA ever-users were considerably older than never-users, but cardiovascular co-morbidity was equally prevalent (19.9% vs. 19.9%). Adjustment for cardiovascular co-morbidity status did not affect the crude risk ratio (RR) for mortality: crude RR 1.19 (95% CI 0.93–1.51) versus RR 1.19 (95% CI 0.94–1.50) after adjustment for cardiovascular co-morbidity. However, after adjustment for age (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.76–1.19), additional adjustment for cardiovascular co-morbidity status did affect the association between LABA use and mortality (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.80–1.26). Confounding variables should not be discarded based on balanced distributions among exposure groups, because residual confounding due to the omission of confounding variables from the adjustment model can be relevant

Subgroup effects despite homogeneous heterogeneity test results

Background. Statistical tests of heterogeneity are very popular in meta-analyses, as heterogeneity might indicate subgroup effects. Lack of demonstrable statistical heterogeneity, however, might obscure clinical heterogeneity, meaning clinically relevant subgroup effects. Methods. A qualitative, visual method to explore the potential for subgroup effects was provided by a modification of the forest plot, i.e., adding a vertical axis indicating the proportion of a subgroup variable in the individual trials. Such a plot was used to assess the potential for clinically relevant subgroup effects and was illustrated by a clinical example on the effects of antibiotics in children with acute otitis media. Results. Statistical tests did not indicate heterogeneity in the meta-analysis on the effects of amoxicillin on acute otitis media (Q = 3.29, p = 0.51; I2 = 0%; T2 = 0). Nevertheless, in a modified forest plot, in which the individual trials were ordered by the proportion of children with bilateral otitis, a clear relation between bilaterality and treatment effects was observed (which was also found in an individual patient data meta-analysis of the included trials: p-value for interaction 0.021). Conclusions. A modification of the forest plot, by including an additional (vertical) axis indicating the proportion of a certain subgroup variable, is a qualitative, visual, and easy-to-interpret method to explore potential subgroup effects in studies included in meta-analyse

A retrospective descriptive study of the characteristics of deliberate self-poisoning patients with single or repeat presentations to an Australian emergency medicine network in a one year period

Background - A proportion of deliberate self-poisoning (DSP) patients present repeatedly to the emergency department (ED). Understanding the characteristics of frequent DSP patients and their presentation is a first step to implementing interventions that are designed to prevent repeated self-poisoning. Methods - All DSP presentations to three networked Australian ED’s were retrospectively identified from the ED electronic medical record and hospital scanned medical records for 2011. Demographics, types of drugs ingested, emergency department length of stay and disposition for the repeat DSP presenters were extracted and compared to those who presented once with DSP in a one year period. Logistic regression was used to analyse repeat versus single DSP data. Results - The study determined 755 single presenters and 93 repeat DSP presenters. The repeat presenters contributed to 321 DSP presentations. They were more likely to be unemployed (61.0% versus 39.9%, p = 0.008) and have a psychiatric illness compared to single presenters (36.6% versus 15.5%, p < 0.001). Repeat presenters were less likely to receive a toxicology consultation (11.5% versus 27.3%, p < 0.001) and were more likely to abscond from the ED (7.5% versus 3.4%, p = 0.004). Repeat presenters were more likely to ingest paracetamol and antipsychotics than single presenters. The defined daily dose for the most common antipsychotic ingested, quetiapine, was less in the repeat presenter group (median 1.9 [IQR: 1.3-3.5]) compared with the single presenter group (4 [1.4-9.5]), (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.99). Conclusion - Patients who present repeatedly to the ED with DSP have pre-existing disadvantages, with increased likelihood of being unemployed and having a mental illness. These patients are also more likely to have health service inequities given the greater likelihood to abscond from the ED and lower likelihood of receiving toxicology consultation for their DSP. Early recognition of repeat DSP patients in the ED may facilitate the development of individualised care plans with the aim to reduce repeat episodes of self-poisoning and subsequent risk of successful suicide

Instrumental variable meta-analysis of individual patient data: application to adjust for treatment non-compliance

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intention-to-treat (ITT) is the standard data analysis method which includes all patients regardless of receiving treatment. Although the aim of ITT analysis is to prevent bias due to prognostic dissimilarity, it is also a counter-intuitive type of analysis as it counts patients who did not receive treatment, and may lead to "bias toward the null." As treated (AT) method analyzes patients according to the treatment actually received rather than intended, but is affected by the selection bias. Both ITT and AT analyses can produce biased estimates of treatment effect, so instrumental variable (IV) analysis has been proposed as a technique to control for bias when using AT data. Our objective is to correct for bias in non-experimental data from previously published individual patient data meta-analysis by applying IV methods</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Center prescribing preference was used as an IV to assess the effects of methotrexate (MTX) in preventing debilitating complications of chronic graft-versus-host-disease (cGVHD) in patients who received peripheral blood stem cell (PBSCT) or bone marrow transplant (BMT) in nine randomized controlled trials (1107 patients). IV methods are applied using 2-stage logistic, 2-stage probit and generalized method of moments models.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>ITT analysis showed a statistically significant detrimental effect with the use of day 11 MTX, resulting in cGVHD odds ratio (OR) of 1.34 (95% CI 1.02-1.76). AT results showed no difference in the odds of cGVHD with the use of MTX [OR 1.31 (95%CI 0.99-1.73)]. IV analysis further corrected the results toward no difference in the odds of cGVHD between PBSCT vs. BMT, allowing for a possibility of beneficial effects of MTX in preventing cGVHD in PBSCT recipients (OR 1.14; 95%CI 0.83-1.56).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>All instrumental variable models produce similar results. IV estimates correct for bias and do not exclude the possibility that MTX may be beneficial, contradicting the ITT analysis.</p

Association Between Nutritional Status and the Immune response in HIV + Patients under HAART: Protocol for a Systematic Review.

Over 850 million people worldwide and 200 million adults in Sub-Saharan Africa suffer from malnutrition. Countries most affected by HIV are also stricken by elevated rates of food insecurity and malnutrition. HIV infection and insufficient nutritional intake are part of a vicious cycle that contributes to immunodeficiency and negative health outcomes. However, the effect of the overlap between HIV infection and undernutrition on the immune response following antiretroviral initiation remains unclear. A possible explanation could be the lack of consensus concerning the definition and assessment of nutritional status. Our objectives are to investigate the existence of an association between undernutrition and immune response at antiretroviral treatment initiation and the following year in low- and middle-income countries where malnutrition is most prevalent. Our systematic review will identify studies originating from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) published from 1996 onwards, through searches in MEDLINE (PubMed interface), EMBASE (OVID interface), Cochrane Central (OVID interface) and grey literature. No language restrictions will be applied. We will seek out studies of any design investigating the association between the nutritional status (for example, undernourished versus well nourished) and the immune response, either in terms of CD4 count or immune failure, in seropositive patients initiating antiretroviral therapy or in their first year of treatment. Two reviewers will independently screen articles, extract data and assess scientific quality using standardized forms and published quality assessment tools tailored for each study design. Where feasible, pooled measures of association will be obtained through meta-analyses. Results will be reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) Statement. This protocol has been registered in the PROSPERO database (registration number: CRD42014005961). Undernutrition and weight loss are prevalent amongst highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)-treated patients in LMICs and contribute to excess early mortality. A possible intermediate pathway could be poor immune reconstitution secondary to deficient nutritional status. In the face of limited access to second line treatments, raising HIV resistance and cut backs to HIV programs, it is crucial to identify the factors associated with suboptimal response and therapeutic failure in order to better customize the care strategies employed in LMICs

Increasingly strong reduction in breast cancer mortality due to screening

Item does not contain fulltextBACKGROUND: Favourable outcomes of breast cancer screening trials in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in the launch of population-based service screening programmes in many Western countries. We investigated whether improvements in mammography and treatment modalities have had an influence on the effectiveness of breast cancer screening from 1975 to 2008. METHODS: In Nijmegen, the Netherlands, 55,529 women received an invitation for screening between 1975 and 2008. We designed a case-referent study to evaluate the impact of mammographic screening on breast cancer mortality over time from 1975 to 2008. A total number of 282 breast cancer deaths were identified, and 1410 referents aged 50-69 were sampled from the population invited for screening. We estimated the effectiveness by calculating the odds ratio (OR) indicating the breast cancer death rate for screened vs unscreened women. RESULTS: The breast cancer death rate in the screened group over the complete period was 35% lower than in the unscreened group (OR=0.65; 95% CI=0.49-0.87). Analysis by calendar year showed an increasing effectiveness from a 28% reduction in breast cancer mortality in the period 1975-1991 (OR=0.72; 95% CI=0.47-1.09) to 65% in the period 1992-2008 (OR=0.35; 95% CI=0.19-0.64). CONCLUSION: Our results show an increasingly strong reduction in breast cancer mortality over time because of mammographic screening

Effect of weight loss, with or without exercise, on body composition and sex hormones in postmenopausal women: the SHAPE-2 trial

Introduction Physical inactivity and overweight are risk factors for postmenopausal breast cancer. The effect of physical activity may be partially mediated by concordant weight loss. We studied the effect on serum sex hormones, which are known to be associated with postmenopausal breast cancer risk, that is attributable to exercise by comparing randomly obtained equivalent weight loss by following a hypocaloric diet only or mainly by exercise. Methods Overweight, insufficiently active women were randomised to a diet (N = 97), mainly exercise (N = 98) or control group (N = 48). The goal of both interventions was to achieve 5–6 kg of weight loss by following a calorie-restricted diet or an intensive exercise programme combined with only a small caloric restriction. Primary outcomes after 16 weeks were serum sex hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG). Body fat and lean mass were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Results Both the diet (−4.9 kg) and mainly exercise (−5.5 kg) groups achieved the target weight loss. Loss of body fat was significantly greater with exercise versus diet (difference −1.4 kg, P < 0.001). In the mainly exercise arm, the reduction in free testosterone was statistically significantly greater than that of the diet arm (treatment effect ratio [TER] 0.92, P = 0.043), and the results were suggestive of a difference for androstenedione (TER 0.90, P = 0.064) and SHBG (TER 1.05, P = 0.070). Compared with the control arm, beneficial effects were seen with both interventions, diet and mainly exercise, respectively, on oestradiol (TER 0.86, P = 0.025; TER 0.83, P = 0.007), free oestradiol (TER 0.80, P = 0.002; TER 0.77, P < 0.001), SHBG (TER 1.14; TER 1.21, both P < 0.001) and free testosterone (TER 0.91, P = 0.069; TER = 0.84, P = 0.001). After adjustment for changes in body fat, intervention effects attenuated or disappeared. Conclusions Weight loss with both interventions resulted in favourable effects on serum sex hormones, which have been shown to be associated with a decrease in postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Weight loss induced mainly by exercise additionally resulted in maintenance of lean mass, greater fitness, greater fat loss and a larger effect on (some) sex hormones. The greater fat loss likely explains the observed larger effects on sex hormone

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in the Elderly Based on Administrative Databases: Change in Immunization Habit as a Marker for Bias

Administrative databases provide efficient methods to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) against severe outcomes in the elderly but are prone to intractable bias. This study returns to one of the linked population databases by which IVE against hospitalization and death in the elderly was first assessed. We explore IVE across six more recent influenza seasons, including periods before, during, and after peak activity to identify potential markers for bias.Acute respiratory hospitalization and all-cause mortality were compared between immunized/non-immunized community-dwelling seniors ≥65 years through administrative databases in Manitoba, Canada between 2000-01 and 2005-06. IVE was compared during pre-season/influenza/post-season periods through logistic regression with multivariable adjustment (age/sex/income/residence/prior influenza or pneumococcal immunization/medical visits/comorbidity), stratification based on prior influenza immunization history, and propensity scores. Analysis during pre-season periods assessed baseline differences between immunized and unimmunized groups. The study population included ∼140,000 seniors, of whom 50-60% were immunized annually. Adjustment for key covariates and use of propensity scores consistently increased IVE. Estimates were paradoxically higher pre-season and for all-cause mortality vs. acute respiratory hospitalization. Stratified analysis showed that those twice consecutively and currently immunized were always at significantly lower hospitalization/mortality risk with odds ratios (OR) of 0.60 [95%CI0.48-0.75] and 0.58 [0.53-0.64] pre-season and 0.77 [0.69-0.86] and 0.71 [0.66-0.77] during influenza circulation, relative to the consistently unimmunized. Conversely, those forgoing immunization when twice previously immunized were always at significantly higher hospitalization/mortality risk with OR of 1.41 [1.14-1.73] and 2.45 [2.21-2.72] pre-season and 1.21 [1.03-1.43] and 1.78 [1.61-1.96] during influenza circulation.The most pronounced IVE estimates were paradoxically observed pre-season, indicating bias tending to over-estimate vaccine protection. Change in immunization habit from that of the prior two years may be a marker for this bias in administrative data sets; however, no analytic technique explored could adjust for its influence. Improved methods to achieve valid interpretation of protection in the elderly are needed

Predictors of Visceral Leishmaniasis Relapse in HIV-Infected Patients: A Systematic Review

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the most serious form of an insect-transmitted parasitic disease prevalent in 70 countries. The disease is caused by species of the L. donovani complex found in different geographical regions. These parasites have substantially different clinical, drug susceptibility and epidemiological characteristics. According to data from the World Health Organization, the areas where HIV-Leishmania co-infection is distributed are extensive. HIV infection increases the risk of developing VL, reduces the likelihood of a therapeutic response, and greatly increases the probability of relapse. A better understanding of the factors promoting relapses is essential; therefore we performed a systematic review of articles involving all articles assessing the predictors of VL relapse in HIV-infected individuals older than 14 years of age. Out of 178 relevant articles, 18 met the inclusion criteria and in total, data from 1017 patients were analyzed. We identified previous episodes of VL relapse, CD4+ lymphocyte count fewer than 100 cells/mL at VL diagnosis, and the absence of an increase in CD4+ counts at follow-up as major factors associated with VL relapse. Knowledge of relapse predictors can help to identify patients with different degrees of risk, facilitate and direct prophylaxis choices, and aid in patient counseling