Market Reform, Regional Energy and Popular Representation: Evidence from Post-Soviet Russia

This article investigates the relative impact of regional energy production on the energy voting choices of State Duma deputies between 1994 and 2003, controlling for other factors such as party affiliation, electoral mandate, committee membership and socio-demographic parameters. We apply Poole’s optimal classification method of roll call votes using an ordered probit model to explain energy market reform in the first decade of Russia’s democratic transition. Our main finding is that the gas production factor is inter temporally important in the formation of the deputies’ legislative choices and shows Gazprom’s strategic position in the post-Soviet Russian economy. The oil production factor is variably significant in the two first Dumas, when the main legislative debates on oil privatization occur. The energy committee membership tends to consistently explain pro-reform voting choices. The pro-and anti-reform poles observed in our Poole-based single dimensional scale are not necessarily connected with liberal and state-oriented policies respectively.energy regulation, market reform, energy resources, roll call votes, legislative politics, State Duma, Russia

Energy Regulation, Roll Call Votes and Regional Resources: Evidence from Russia

This paper investigates the relative impact of regional energy production on the legislative choices of Russian Duma deputies on energy regulation between 1994 and 2003. We apply Poole’s optimal classification method of roll call votes using an ordered probit model to explain energy law reform in the first decade of Russia’s democratic transition. Our goal is to analyze the relative importance of home energy on deputies’ behavior, controlling for other factors such as party affiliation, electoral mandate, committee membership and socio-demographic parameters. We observe that energy resource factors have a considerable effect on deputies’ voting behavior. On the other hand, we concurrently find that regional economic preferences are constrained by the public policy priorities of the federal center that continue to set the tone in energy law reform in post-Soviet Russia.Energy Regulation, Energy Roll Law Reform, Energy Resources, Roll Call Votes, Legislative Politics, State Duma, Russia

Energy Restructuring and Social Distribution in the Transition Economies of East Germany and Poland

В статье анализируются политические и экономические аспекты реструктуризации энергетического сектора в Восточной Германии и Польше с точки зрения социального распределения. Ее цель двояка: с одной стороны, она обеспечивает аналитическую дихотомию между регулирующей и процедурной реструктуризацией, с другой - между горизонтальной и иерархической. Таким образом, можно объяснить различные пути реформирования энергетических отраслей Восточной Германии и Польши. Замена центрального и законного правительства Тройхандом в Восточной Германии, а также центральная координирующая роль правительства в случае Польши являются ключевыми показателями этих концептуальных отличий. Постсоциалистические энергетические компании рассматриваются как механизмы социального распределения, реструктуризация которых определяется минимумом общественной собственности. Вопреки Тройханду, который стал институциональной основой для передачи энергетического сектора бывшей ГДР на множество дочерних западногерманских корпораций, польское министерство приватизации предпочло поддерживать экономическую справедливость, а не разрешить проведение полной приватизации в энергетической отрасли страны. Кажется, частные организации или государственные институты, которые связаны с корпоративными интересами, имеют меньше стимулов для сохранения этого минимума общественной собственности, чем центральное правительство. В энергетических секторах переходных экономик, сохранение минимума общественной собственности, а не полная приватизация является необходимым условием социального распределения.This article analyzes the politicаl economy of energy restructuring in East Germany and Poland from the perspective of social distribution. Its purpose is two-fold: on the one hand, it provides analytical dichotomies between regulatory vs. procedural and horizontal vs. hierarchical restructuring to explain the different paths in the liberal transformation of the energy industry in East Germany and Poland. The substitution of a central and legitimate government by Treuhand in the East German case as well as the central coordinating role of the government in the Polish case constitute the key indicators for these conceptual distinctions. On the other hand, post-socialist energy firms are treated as social distribution mechanisms, whose restructuring is defined by a public ownership minimum. Contrary to Treuhand, which functioned as an institutional sponsor for an ethnically-driven transfer of the East German energy sector to a set of subsidiaries of West German corporations, the Polish Ministry of Privatization preferred to adopt the equity constraint rather than regulate its energy policy preferences through the private sector. Private organizations or semi-legitimate public agencies captured by corporate interests have no incentive to maintain the public ownership minimum as the central government can. The existence of distributive energy firms implies distributive energy bureaucracies; the preservation of a public ownership minimum rather than inter-elite privatization contracts is a prerequisite for energy-driven distribution in post-socialism

Arctic Conflicts & Russian Foreign Policy

In this paper, we analyze the intersections of legal and political dispute resolution methods in Arctic territorial disputes involving Russia and several Western governments, including Canada and the United States. There are two current disputes. The first dispute concentrates on the Lomonosov Ridge, a geological feature that runs near the North Pole and has been used by three states to claim the North Pole as part of their continental shelf. The second dispute deals with the legal status of the Northern Sea Route. Our paper evaluates the tradeoffs between the legal and political constraints in these disputes between Russia and the West, and considers the possible methods of dispute settlement. In the paper, we suggest that the resolution of Arctic conflicts is likely to include a set of legal-political equilibria, such as international adjudication, voluntary mediation, and intergovernmental regulation. The Lomonosov Ridge dispute is likely to be resolved by voluntary mediation through a voluntary conciliation procedure coupled with the political support of Russia, Denmark, and Canada. However, the Northern Sea Route dispute is likely to be addressed by intergovernmental regulation because Russia’s argument on coastal jurisdiction is opposed by that of the United States on international waters and the right to free navigation

The Regional Origins of the Libyan Conflict

We explore the effects of Libya's administrative division into Tripolitania, Cyrenaica, and Fezzan on the onset of the Libyan conflict. We argue that Tripolitania and Cyrenaica, in particular, followed two different and distinct paths of political development and socioeconomic transformation. While Tripolitania and its elites are connected to the core of Libyan statehood and the legacies of Italian colonization, Cyrenaica is defined by localized political autonomy and economic autarky with respect to natural resources. Furthermore, the Qadhafi regime marginalized Cyrenaica politically, despite its major significance for the Libyan economy, because of its strong royalist inclinations. By offering an overview of Libya's political evolution and socioeconomic development, we indicate that the current conflict has largely been due to the asymmetric and artificial dominance of Tripolitania over the other two regions, particularly Cyrenaica

Monetary policy transmission to Russia & Eastern Europe

In this paper, we argue that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy announcements have generated significant spillover effects in Russia and Eastern Europe. The hypothesis is tested using OLS estimations of event-based regressions on monetary policy event dummies and seven financial variables in eleven East European countries including Russia. Overall, the empirical results associate the ECB’s unconventional policy announcements with the appreciation of East European currencies, rising stock market indices as well as falling long-term government bond yields and lower sovereign CDS spreads in Eastern Europe and Russia. Notably, bilateral integration with the eurozone is a key determinant of the strength of spillovers, with spillovers strongest in non-euro EU countries and weakest in non-EU East European countries. Interestingly, we find differentiated strength of spillovers to Russia compared to other non-EU East European countries, which we attribute to its fixed exchange rate regime. Lastly, we test for the presence of the portfolio rebalancing and confidence transmission channels

Antiquity, capitalism & development: The finance-growth perspective

This paper explores the impact of state antiquity (the length of established statehood) on capitalism. We argue that extractive institutions may prevail in societies with ancient roots and offer the in-depth analysis of one particular channel through which these institutions may impair economic growth: the finance-growth nexus. We propose that in countries with ancient statehood, the financial sector might be captured by powerful economic and political elites leading to a distorted finance-growth relationship. We build a model in which the equilibrium relationship between companies and banks depends on elites' entrenchment and the length of established statehood. To validate our argument, we run panel-threshold regressions on a global sample between 1975 and 2014. The results show that financial development—measured by the amount of credit—is indeed negative for growth in states with ancient institutional origins, while it is positive in relatively younger ones. Based on firm-level data, we also find that corruption in lending increases with antiquity

A Political Theory of Russian Orthodoxy: Evidence from Public Goods Experiments

In this paper, I test the effects of religious norms on the provision of public goods. My evidence is drawn from public goods experiments that I ran with regional bureaucrats in Tomsk and Novosibirsk, Russia. I introduce three treatments, which I define as degrees of Eastern Orthodox collectivist enforcement: 1. Solidarity, 2. Obedience, and 3. Universal discipline. I argue for the existence of an Eastern Orthodox hierarchy in the Russian bureaucracy that facilitates the delivery of public goods under conditions of universal discipline and the principal´s overfulfillment. Eastern Orthodox hierarchy is enforced through universal disciplinary monitoring, which induces collective punishment when the public good is not delivered. Contrary to conventional wisdom about freeriding in administrative institutions, higher ranks in Russian bureaucracies are associated with less freeriding

Nuclear Energy Governance and the Politics of Social Justice: Technology, Public Goods, and Redistribution in Russia and France

The paper analyzes the political economy of nuclear power in Russia and France from a social justice perspective. While Russia prioritizes national security over environmental safety, France follows the inverse order of policy priorities. Nuclear innovation defines the ability of any state to provide efficiently public goods and implement redistributive policies, based on its nuclear potential. The distinction between hierarchical and multilevel regulation of the nuclear sector in Russia and France is critical for my argument; because hierarchical regulation is less likely to facilitate innovation, emerging nuclear-intensive economies are less inclined to approximate energy-induced redistributive justice. Explaining the four possible outcomes of the French-Russian nuclear cooperation, I maintain a high degree of optimism that technology can serve the needs of the poor without hampering global sustainability, growth and international investment relations

Aid effectiveness and the soft budget constraint: EU development aid to the former Soviet Union

Aid effectiveness is defined as contractual completeness. EU development aid constitutes the new soft budget constraint in the former Soviet Union. Transnational sovereignty means that development policy is decided by the post-Soviet planner and financed by the European Commission.Aid effectiveness Soft budget constraint Transnational sovereignty Distributive planners Developmental entrepreneurs