Impact of deprivation and comorbidity on outcomes in emergency general surgery: an epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: The impact of socioeconomic deprivation and comorbidities on the outcome of patients who require emergency general surgery (EGS) admission is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to examine the effect of deprivation and comorbidity on mortality, discharge destination and length of hospital stay (LOS) in patients undergoing EGS in Scotland. METHODS: Prospectively collected data from all Scottish adult patients (aged >15 years) requiring EGS admitted between 1997 and 2016 were obtained from the Scottish Government. Data included age, sex, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD), 5-year Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), whether an operation took place and outcomes including mortality, discharge destination and LOS. Logistic regression was used for the analysis of mortality and discharge destination and Poisson regression was used for LOS. RESULTS: 1 477 810 EGS admissions were analyzed. 16.2% were in the most deprived SIMD decile and 5.6% in the least deprived SIMD decile. 75.6% had no comorbidity, 20.3% had mild comorbidity, 2.5% had moderate comorbidity and 1.6% had severe comorbidity. 78.6% were discharged directly home. Inpatient, 30-day, 90-day and 1-year crude mortality was 1.7%, 3.7%, 7.2% and 12.4%, respectively. Logistic regression showed that severe comorbidity was associated with not being discharged directly to home (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.39) and higher inpatient mortality (OR 13.74, 95% CI 13.09 to 14.42). Compared with the most affluent population, the most deprived population were less likely to be discharged directly to home (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.95 to 0.99) and had higher inpatient mortality (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.8 to 1.46). Poisson analysis showed that severe comorbidity (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.68 to 1.69) and socioeconomic deprivation (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.12) were associated with longer LOS. DISCUSSION: Increased levels of comorbidity and, to a lesser extent, socioeconomic deprivation are key drivers of mortality, discharge destination and LOS following admission to an EGS service. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III (prospective/retrospective with up to two negative criteria). STUDY TYPE: Epidemiological/prognostic

On the relationship between fundamental measurements in TCP flows

This paper considers fundamental measurements which drive TCP flows: throughput, RTT and loss. It is clear that throughput is, in some sense, a function of both RTT and loss. In their seminal paper Padyhe et al [1] begin with a mathematical model of the TCP sliding window evolution process and come up with an equation showing that TCP throughput is (roughly) proportional to 1/RTT√p where p is the probability of packet loss. Their equation is shown to be consistent with data gathered on several links. This paper takes the opposite approach and analyses a large number of packet traces from well-known sources in order to create a data-driven estimate of the functions which relate TCP, loss and RTT. Regression analysis is used to fit models to connect the quantities. The fitted models show different behaviour from that expected in [1]

Measuring the Relationships between Internet Geography and RTT

When designing distributed systems and Internet protocols, designers can benefit from statistical models of the Internet that can be used to estimate their performance. However, it is frequently impossible for these models to include every property of interest. In these cases, model builders have to select a reduced subset of network properties, and the rest will have to be estimated from those available. In this paper we present a technique for the analysis of Internet round trip times (RTT) and its relationship with other geographic and network properties. This technique is applied on a novel dataset comprising ∼19 million RTT measurements derived from ∼200 million RTT samples between ∼54 thousand DNS servers. Our main contribution is an information-theoretical analysis that allows us to determine the amount of information that a given subset of geographic or network variables (such as RTT or great circle distance between geolocated hosts) gives about other variables of interest. We then provide bounds on the error that can be expected when using statistical estimators for the variables of interest based on subsets of other variables

The inter-rater reliability of the diagnosis of surgical site infection in the context of a clinical trial.

ObjectivesThe diagnosis of surgical site infection following endoprosthetic reconstruction for bone tumours is frequently a subjective diagnosis. Large clinical trials use blinded Central Adjudication Committees (CACs) to minimise the variability and bias associated with assessing a clinical outcome. The aim of this study was to determine the level of inter-rater and intra-rater agreement in the diagnosis of surgical site infection in the context of a clinical trial.Materials and methodsThe Prophylactic Antibiotic Regimens in Tumour Surgery (PARITY) trial CAC adjudicated 29 non-PARITY cases of lower extremity endoprosthetic reconstruction. The CAC members classified each case according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) criteria for surgical site infection (superficial, deep, or organ space). Combinatorial analysis was used to calculate the smallest CAC panel size required to maximise agreement. A final meeting was held to establish a consensus.ResultsFull or near consensus was reached in 20 of the 29 cases. The Fleiss kappa value was calculated as 0.44 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.35 to 0.53), or moderate agreement. The greatest statistical agreement was observed in the outcome of no infection, 0.61 (95% CI 0.49 to 0.72, substantial agreement). Panelists reached a full consensus in 12 of 29 cases and near consensus in five of 29 cases when CDC criteria were used (superficial, deep or organ space). A stable maximum Fleiss kappa of 0.46 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.35) at CAC sizes greater than three members was obtained.ConclusionsThere is substantial agreement among the members of the PARITY CAC regarding the presence or absence of surgical site infection. Agreement on the level of infection, however, is more challenging. Additional clinical information routinely collected by the prospective PARITY trial may improve the discriminatory capacity of the CAC in the parent study for the diagnosis of infection.Cite this article: J. Nuttall, N. Evaniew, P. Thornley, A. Griffin, B. Deheshi, T. O'Shea, J. Wunder, P. Ferguson, R. L. Randall, R. Turcotte, P. Schneider, P. McKay, M. Bhandari, M. Ghert. The inter-rater reliability of the diagnosis of surgical site infection in the context of a clinical trial. Bone Joint Res 2016;5:347-352. DOI: 10.1302/2046-3758.58.BJR-2016-0036.R1

Target product profiles for protecting against outdoor malaria transmission.

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual sprays (IRS) have decimated malaria transmission by killing indoor-feeding mosquitoes. However, complete elimination of malaria transmission with these proven methods is confounded by vectors that evade pesticide contact by feeding outdoors.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud For any assumed level of indoor coverage and personal protective efficacy with insecticidal products, process-explicit malaria transmission models suggest that insecticides that repel mosquitoes will achieve less impact upon transmission than those that kill them outright. Here such models are extended to explore how outdoor use of products containing either contact toxins or spatial repellents might augment or attenuate impact of high indoor coverage of LLINs relying primarily upon contact toxicity.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud LLIN impact could be dramatically enhanced by high coverage with spatial repellents conferring near-complete personal protection, but only if combined indoor use of both measures can be avoided where vectors persist that prefer feeding indoors upon humans. While very high levels of coverage and efficacy will be required for spatial repellents to substantially augment the impact of LLINs or IRS, these ambitious targets may well be at least as practically achievable as the lower requirements for equivalent impact using contact insecticides.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS\ud \ud Vapour-phase repellents may be more acceptable, practical and effective than contact insecticides for preventing outdoor malaria transmission because they need not be applied to skin or clothing and may protect multiple occupants of spaces outside of treatable structures such as nets or houses

Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation.Comment: 26 pages, 6 figure

Evaluation of range of motion restriction within the hip joint

In Total Hip Arthroplasty, determining the impingement free range of motion requirement is a complex task. This is because in the native hip, motion is restricted by both impingement as well as soft tissue restraint. The aim of this study is to determine a range of motion benchmark which can identify motions which are at risk from impingement and those which are constrained due to soft tissue. Two experimental methodologies were used to determine motions which were limited by impingement and those motions which were limited by both impingement and soft tissue restraint. By comparing these two experimental results, motions which were limited by impingement were able to be separated from those motions which were limited by soft tissue restraint. The results show motions in extension as well as flexion combined with adduction are limited by soft tissue restraint. Motions in flexion, flexion combined with abduction and adduction are at risk from osseous impingement. Consequently, these motions represent where the maximum likely damage will occur in femoroacetabular impingement or at most risk of prosthetic impingement in Total Hip Arthroplasty

A new concept for the combination of optical interferometers and high-resolution spectrographs

The combination of high spatial and spectral resolution in optical astronomy enables new observational approaches to many open problems in stellar and circumstellar astrophysics. However, constructing a high-resolution spectrograph for an interferometer is a costly and time-intensive undertaking. Our aim is to show that, by coupling existing high-resolution spectrographs to existing interferometers, one could observe in the domain of high spectral and spatial resolution, and avoid the construction of a new complex and expensive instrument. We investigate in this article the different challenges which arise from combining an interferometer with a high-resolution spectrograph. The requirements for the different sub-systems are determined, with special attention given to the problems of fringe tracking and dispersion. A concept study for the combination of the VLTI (Very Large Telescope Interferometer) with UVES (UV-Visual Echelle Spectrograph) is carried out, and several other specific instrument pairings are discussed. We show that the proposed combination of an interferometer with a high-resolution spectrograph is indeed feasible with current technology, for a fraction of the cost of building a whole new spectrograph. The impact on the existing instruments and their ongoing programs would be minimal.Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures, Experimental Astronomy; v2: accepted versio

Comparative Field Evaluation of Combinations of Long-Lasting Insecticide Treated Nets and Indoor Residual Spraying, Relative to Either Method Alone, for Malaria Prevention in an Area where the main Vector is Anopheles Arabiensis.

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) are commonly used together in the same households to improve malaria control despite inconsistent evidence on whether such combinations actually offer better protection than nets alone or IRS alone. Comparative tests were conducted using experimental huts fitted with LLINs, untreated nets, IRS plus untreated nets, or combinations of LLINs and IRS, in an area where Anopheles arabiensis is the predominant malaria vector species. Three LLIN types, Olyset®, PermaNet 2.0® and Icon Life® nets and three IRS treatments, pirimiphos-methyl, DDT, and lambda cyhalothrin, were used singly or in combinations. We compared, number of mosquitoes entering huts, proportion and number killed, proportions prevented from blood-feeding, time when mosquitoes exited the huts, and proportions caught exiting. The tests were done for four months in dry season and another six months in wet season, each time using new intact nets. All the net types, used with or without IRS, prevented >99% of indoor mosquito bites. Adding PermaNet 2.0® and Icon Life®, but not Olyset® nets into huts with any IRS increased mortality of malaria vectors relative to IRS alone. However, of all IRS treatments, only pirimiphos-methyl significantly increased vector mortality relative to LLINs alone, though this increase was modest. Overall, median mortality of An. arabiensis caught in huts with any of the treatments did not exceed 29%. No treatment reduced entry of the vectors into huts, except for marginal reductions due to PermaNet 2.0® nets and DDT. More than 95% of all mosquitoes were caught in exit traps rather than inside huts. Where the main malaria vector is An. arabiensis, adding IRS into houses with intact pyrethroid LLINs does not enhance house-hold level protection except where the IRS employs non-pyrethroid insecticides such as pirimiphos-methyl, which can confer modest enhancements. In contrast, adding intact bednets onto IRS enhances protection by preventing mosquito blood-feeding (even if the nets are non-insecticidal) and by slightly increasing mosquito mortality (in case of LLINs). The primary mode of action of intact LLINs against An. arabiensis is clearly bite prevention rather than insecticidal activity. Therefore, where resources are limited, priority should be to ensure that everyone at risk consistently uses LLINs and that the nets are regularly replaced before being excessively torn. Measures that maximize bite prevention (e.g. proper net sizes to effectively cover sleeping spaces, stronger net fibres that resist tears and burns and net use practices that preserve net longevity), should be emphasized