Estimating the upper limit of prehistoric peak ground acceleration using an in situ, intact and vulnerable stalagmite from Plavecka priepast cave (Detrekoi-zsomboly), Little Carpathians, Slovakia-first results

Earthquakes hit urban centres in Europe infrequently, but occasionally with disastrous effects. Obtaining an unbiased view of seismic hazard (and risk) is therefore very important. In principle, the best way to test probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHAs) is to compare them with observations that are entirely independent of the procedure used to produce PSHA models. Arguably, the most valuable information in this context should be information on long-term hazard, namely maximum intensities (or magnitudes) occurring over time intervals that are at least as long as a seismic cycle. The new observations can provide information of maximum intensity (or magnitude) for long timescale as an input data for PSHA studies as well. Long-term information can be gained from intact stalagmites in natural caves. These formations survived all earthquakes that have occurred over thousands of years, depending on the age of the stalagmite. Their 'survival' requires that the horizontal ground acceleration (HGA) has never exceeded a certain critical value within that time period. Here, we present such a stalagmite-based case study from the Little Carpathians of Slovakia. A specially shaped, intact and vulnerable stalagmite in the Plavecka priepast cave was examined in 2013. This stalagmite is suitable for estimating the upper limit of horizontal peak ground acceleration generated by prehistoric earthquakes. The critical HGA values as a function of time going back into the past determined from the stalagmite that we investigated are presented. For example, at the time of Joko event (1906), the critical HGA value cannot have been higher than 1 and 1.3 m/s(2) at the time of the assumed Carnuntum event (similar to 340 AD), and 3000 years ago, it must have been lower than 1.7 m/s(2). We claimed that the effect of Joko earthquake (1906) on the location of the Plavecka priepast cave is consistent with the critical HGA value provided by the stalagmite we investigated. The approach used in this study yields significant new constraints on the seismic hazard, as tectonic structures close to Plavecka priepast cave did not generate strong earthquakes in the last few thousand years. The results of this study are highly relevant given that the two capitals, Vienna and Bratislava, are located within 40 and 70 km of the cave, respectively.Web of Science2151130111

Seismic Ground Motion and Site Effect Modelling Along Two Profiles in the City of Debrecen, Hungary

The aim of our study is to determine the disign ground acceleration values at different parts of Debrecen along two profiles crossing the city. This technique consists of the modal summation method, followed by finite difference modelling. Two independent computations have been performed using two different seismic sources and profiles. In both computations the seismic sources have been located in the so called "Mobile Zone". The Mobile Zone is a seismically active fault system between the villages of Hosszupalyi and Galospetri. the focal mechanism and the homogeneous and heterogeneous parts of the profile are known from gephysical and geological data of the investigated area. The maximum responge spectra ratio values of the horizontal component are found below 1 Hz all along the profile and the frequencies below 1 Hz are in good agreement with the natural frequencies of the multi-storeyed buildings. Computed effective than 6 MSK macroseismic intensity values estimated from the assessment records of damages wrought by the 1834 Ermellek earthquake

Investigation of earthquakes' geo-surroundings in the Pannonian Basin by using GIS tools

The mechanism of earthquake occurrence in the Pannonian Basin is not clear in most cases (in other words, it is often not possible to find a relationship between the location of epicenters and the elements of the maps of recent tectonic movements), hence a GIS has been created in order to clarify the origin of these events.  The special seismological GIS includes all relevant information (maps and joint database) concerned with earthquakes covering the whole territory of Hungary. GIS contains the following maps: special macro- and microseismic epicenters and their parameters; different active tectonic fault maps; digital terrain model of the recent relief; digital terrain models of different geological basements; appropriate geophysical anomaly maps; Quaternary sediment thickness; recent rivers, water streams and settlements. GIS enables us to carry out special operations between different layers by applying its tools in order to reveal the recent tectonic movements and to throw light upon the generation of possible earthquake occurrences.  Results of the present investigation in GIS revealed that significant relation exists between the earthquake foci and recent tectonic lines. Some foci, however, can not be related to fracture lines. One part of earthquakes showed agreement with Pre-Tertiary basement areas of considerable slope, with the  recent tectonic elements of Geomorphological maps and with the piedmonts of the North Hungarian Range. Some traces of recent movements have been found with the help of the multiplication map of Quaternary sediment thickness map and Recent relief (Digital Elevation Model)

Seismic ground motion and site effect modelling along two profiles in the city of Debrecen, Hungary

The aim of our study is to determine the design ground acceleration values at different parts of Debrecen along two profiles crossing the city. Synthetic seismograms are computed by the so called “hybrid technique”. This technique consists of the modal summation method, followed by finite difference modelling. Two independent computations have been performed using two different seismic sources and profiles. In both computations the seismic sources have been located in the so called “Mobile Zone”. The Mobile Zone is a seismically active fault system between the villages of Hosszúpályi and Gálospetri. The focal mechanism and the homogeneous and heterogeneous parts of the profile are known from geophysical and geological data of the investigated area. The maximum response spectra ratio values of the horizontal component are found below 1 Hz all along the profile and the frequencies below 1 Hz are in good agreement with the natural frequencies of the multi-storeyed buildings. Computed effective peak acceleration (EPA) values are found to be in good agreement also with the higher than 6° MSK macroseismic intensity values estimated from the assessment records of damages wrought by the 1834 Érmellék earthquake

Seismic microzonation with the use of GIS - Case study for Debrecen, Hungary

The aim of our study is to determine the design ground acceleration values at the whole territory of Debrecen and to accomplish the seismic risk map of Debrecen using synthetic seismograms. Synthetic seismograms are computed by the so called ``hybrid technique" along 11 different profiles crossing the city. The hybrid technique consists of the modal summation method, followed by finite difference modelling. 11 independent computations have been performed using the same seismic source but different profiles. The seismic source has been located in the so called “Mobile Zone”, which is a seismically active fault system in Érmellék region. The focal mechanism and the homogeneous and heterogeneous parts of the profiles are  known from geophysical and geological data of the investigated area. As the results of the computations PGA grid maps of Debrecen for the 3 different components and the spectral  acceleration (response spectra, SA) charts of the synthetic seismograms for the transversal components came  into existence. The seismic risk map of the city has been completed from the SA charts created from the synthetic seismograms and from the grid map of the buildings in Debrecen with different number of floors by applying GIS tools

Focal depths of earthquakes in the Carpathian Basin

Analysing the areal distribution of earthquakes produced in the Carpathian Basin the conclusion can be drawn that only certain parts can be considered active along fracture lines, namely those parts which separate individually moving blocks. Generally accepted working theory states that if one fracture line ever generated an M-magnitude earthquake then at any point of the same line a similar or larger tremor may happen again. However, this principle is not supported by domestic experiences. In accordance with focal depths analysis we are going to verify that earthquakes were produced within more or less consolidated layers inside subsiding basins. Our analysis is aimed to explain the possible origin of earthquakes within small depth range and to point out the practical benefit of these investigations. We present also an analysis on the possible origin of „basin tremors” not taken so far into consideration and we offer a plausible explanation. Uncertainties of focal depth (hypocenter) determinations will also be given and we define relations between the focal depth (h), the magnitude (M), and the epicentral intensity (Io). The result will be presented in tables and comparison will be given between the focal depth data determined by us and by others. Finally viewpoints will be presented to help the recognition of earthquake foci and to set earthquake hazard determination on a real basis

Deterministic seismic hazard assessment of the inner town of Budapest

Deterministic seismic hazard computations were performed along four different profiles across the downtown of Budapest. Synthetic seismograms were computed by the so called “hybrid technique”. By applying the hybrid technique it is possible to take into account the focal source, the path and the site effect together. Four independent computations have been performed using the same seismic source but different profiles. The parameters of the seismic source were adopted from the parameters of the well-known 1956 Dunaharaszti earthquake. The focal mechanism and the homogeneous and heterogeneous parts of the profiles are known from geophysical and geological data of the investigated area. As the results of the computations PGA (peak ground acceleration) grid maps of the downtown of Budapest for the three different components came into existence. Furthermore spectral acceleration (response spectra, SA) and RSR charts of the synthetic seismograms for the four different profiles were created. The PGA grid maps show that the maximal PGA values are situated at the eastern (Pest) part of the downtown, and their values are 50–200 cm/s2. For the downtown of Budapest a special seismic risk map have been prepared. This special seismic risk map were created on the basis of the difference between the maximal amplitude frequencies of SA of synthetic seismograms and the building’s eigenfrequencies at every 0.1 km2 of the downtown. In order to determine the building’s eigenfrequencies microseismic noise measurement were performed at 6 different buildings in the downtown. The special seismic risk map shows that the buildings situated at the hilly western section of the downtown have higher seismic risk than the ones at the flat eastern part

Research for seismogenic zones in the Pannonian Basin - A deterministic seismic hazard estimation for Budapest

In this paper, a theory describing the possible origin of shallow depth earthquakes occurring within the sedimentary depressions of the Pannonian Basin is presented. In addition, the seismicity of Budapest is re-evaluated by synthetic seismogram based deterministic seismic hazard estimation

Seismic Vulnerability of a Slender Stalagmite

Seismic vulnerability of speleothems may serve long-term seismic risk studies. For this reason, the seismic response of stalagmite is computed using a robust FEM model calibrated from free vibration records by Hilbert–Huang modal extraction. It is demonstrated that the stalagmite vibrations consist of pairs of closely coupled flexural natural modes with a negligible role of vertical excitations. The location of the breaking point of the stalagmite is a result of a balance between the overturning bending moment and variations of horizontal cross-sections with height. Safety margins are investigated, and the ultimate peak velocity of excitations equaling 3.4 mm/s is estimated