An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior

Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is ~40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities). Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Four-Parameter white blood cell differential counting based on light scattering measurements

Measurement of the depolarized orthogonal light scattering in flow cytometry enables one to discriminate human eosinephilic granulocytes from neutrophilic granulocytes. We use this method to perform a four-parameter differential white blood cell analysis. \ud A simple flow cytometer was built equipped with a 5-mW helium neon laser that measures simultaneously four light scattering parameters. Lymphocytes, monocytes, and granulocytes were identified by simultaneously measuring the light scattering intensity at angles between 1.0° and 2.6° and angles between 3.0° and 11.0°. Eosinophilic granulocytes were distinguished from neutrophilic granulocytes by simultaneous measurement of the orthogonal and depolarized orthogonal light scattering. \ud Comparison of a white blood cell differentiation of 45 donors obtained by the Technicon H-6000 and our instrument revealed good correlations. The correlation coefficients (r2) found were: 0.99 for lymphocytes, 0.76 for monocytes, 0.99 for neutrophilic granulocytes, and 0.98 for eosinophilic granulocytes. The results demonstrate that reliable white blood cell differentiation of the four most clinically relevant leukocytes can be obtained by measurement of light scattering properties of unstained leukocytes

Mass loss out of close binaries. II

Liberal evolution of interacting binaries has been proposed previously by several authors in order to meet various observed binary characteristics better than conservative evolution does. Since Algols are eclipsing binaries the distribution of their orbital periods is precisely known. The distribution of their mass ratios contains however more uncertainties. We try to reproduce these two distributions theoretically using a liberal scenario in which the gainer star can lose mass into interstellar space as a consequence of its rapid rotation and the energy of a hot spot. In a recent paper (Van Rensbergen et al. 2010, A&A) we calculated the liberal evolution of binaries with a B-type primary at birth where mass transfer starts during core hydrogen burning of the donor. In this paper we include the cases where mass transfer starts during hydrogen shell burning and it is our aim to reproduce the observed distributions of the system parameters of Algol-type semi-detached systems. Our calculations reveal the amount of time that an Algol binary lives with a well defined value of mass ratio and orbital period. We use these data to simulate the distribution of mass ratios and orbital periods of Algols. Binaries with a late B-type initial primary hardly lose any mass whereas those with an early B primary evolve in a non-conservative way. Conservative binary evolution predicts only ~ 12 % of Algols with a mass ratio q above 0.4. This value is raised up to ~ 17 % using our scenario of liberal evolution, which is still far below the ~ 45 % that is observed. Observed orbital periods of Algol binaries larger than one day are faithfully reproduced by our liberal scenario. Mass ratios are reproduced better than with conservative evolution, but the resemblance is still poor.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in A&A; accepted versio

The application of GIS based decision-tree models for generating the spatial distribution of hydromorphic organic landscapes in relation to digital terrain data

Accurate information about organic/mineral soil occurrence is a prerequisite for many land resources management applications (including climate change mitigation). This paper aims at investigating the potential of using geomorphometrical analysis and decision tree modeling to predict the geographic distribution of hydromorphic organic landscapes in unsampled area in Denmark. Nine primary (elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, plan curvature, profile curvature, tangent curvature, flow direction, flow accumulation, and specific catchment area) and one secondary (steady-state topographic wetness index) topographic parameters were generated from Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) acquired using airborne LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) systems. They were used along with existing digital data collected from other sources (soil type, geological substrate and landscape type) to explain organic/mineral field measurements in hydromorphic landscapes of the Danish area chosen. A large number of tree-based classification models (186) were developed using (1) all of the parameters, (2) the primary DEM-derived topographic (morphological/hydrological) parameters only, (3) selected pairs of parameters and (4) excluding each parameter one at a time from the potential pool of predictor parameters. The best classification tree model (with the lowest misclassification error and the smallest number of terminal nodes and predictor parameters) combined the steady-state topographic wetness index and soil type, and explained 68% of the variability in organic/mineral field measurements. The overall accuracy of the predictive organic/inorganic landscapes' map produced (at 1:50 000 cartographic scale) using the best tree was estimated to be ca. 75%. The proposed classification-tree model is relatively simple, quick, realistic and practical, and it can be applied to other areas, thereby providing a tool to facilitate the implementation of pedological/hydrological plans for conservation and sustainable management. It is particularly useful when information about soil properties from conventional field surveys is limited

Eperythrozoonosis in 4-week-old Pigs

Eperythrozoon suis is considered to be the major cause of icteroanemia in swine. Knowledge concerning the mode of transmission of eperythrozoonosis is incomplete. Because most cases of eperythrozoonosis occur during the warm months of the year, it has been assumed that dissemination of the blood parasite could be most easily accomplished by bloodsucking arthropod vectors

The paradox of being a woman teacher

In this article I follow genealogical lines of analysis in an attempt to map the different discourses and practices that interweave women’s position in education today. I have theorised education as a nexus of created paradoxical spaces, where the female self has attempted to surpass closed boundaries and to question the dichotomy of the feminised private and/or the masculine public. I have also considered the importance of time restrictions upon women’s lives and have paid attention to the multifarious ways these lives are highly structured by specific space/time regulations. The genealogical cartography I have drawn, depicts various positions, where the female self has created parodic unities and temporary coalitions. Finally in tracing exit points that education has offered women, I have considered some of the implications of feminist theories for the subversion of the various dilemmas and dichotomies the female subject has lived through