Galactic cosmic rays on extrasolar Earth-like planets I. Cosmic ray flux

(abridged abstract) Theoretical arguments indicate that close-in terrestial exoplanets may have weak magnetic fields, especially in the case of planets more massive than Earth (super-Earths). Planetary magnetic fields, however, constitute one of the shielding layers that protect the planet against cosmic-ray particles. In particular, a weak magnetic field results in a high flux of Galactic cosmic rays that extends to the top of the planetary atmosphere. We wish to quantify the flux of Galactic cosmic rays to an exoplanetary atmosphere as a function of the particle energy and of the planetary magnetic moment. We numerically analyzed the propagation of Galactic cosmic-ray particles through planetary magnetospheres. We evaluated the efficiency of magnetospheric shielding as a function of the particle energy (in the range 16 MeV $\le$ E $\le$ 524 GeV) and as a function of the planetary magnetic field strength (in the range 0 ${M}_\oplus$ $\le$ {M} $\le$ 10 ${M}_\oplus$). Combined with the flux outside the planetary magnetosphere, this gives the cosmic-ray energy spectrum at the top of the planetary atmosphere as a function of the planetary magnetic moment. We find that the particle flux to the planetary atmosphere can be increased by more than three orders of magnitude in the absence of a protecting magnetic field. For a weakly magnetized planet (${M}=0.05\,{M}_{\oplus}$), only particles with energies below 512 MeV are at least partially shielded. For a planet with a magnetic moment similar to Earth, this limit increases to 32 GeV, whereas for a strongly magnetized planet ($M=10.0\,{M}_{\oplus}$), partial shielding extends up to 200 GeV. We find that magnetic shielding strongly controls the number of cosmic-ray particles reaching the planetary atmosphere. The implications of this increased particle flux are discussed in a companion article.Comment: 10 pages, 9 figures; accepted in A&

Galactic cosmic rays on extrasolar Earth-like planets: II. Atmospheric implications

(abridged abstract) Theoretical arguments indicate that close-in terrestial exoplanets may have weak magnetic fields. As described in the companion article (Paper I), a weak magnetic field results in a high flux of galactic cosmic rays to the top of the planetary atmosphere. We investigate effects that may result from a high flux of galactic cosmic rays both throughout the atmosphere and at the planetary surface. Using an air shower approach, we calculate how the atmospheric chemistry and temperature change under the influence of galactic cosmic rays for Earth-like (N_2-O_2 dominated) atmospheres. We evaluate the production and destruction rate of atmospheric biosignature molecules. We derive planetary emission and transmission spectra to study the influence of galactic cosmic rays on biosignature detectability. We then calculate the resulting surface UV flux, the surface particle flux, and the associated equivalent biological dose rates. We find that up to 20% of stratospheric ozone is destroyed by cosmic-ray protons. The reduction of the planetary ozone layer leads to an increase in the weighted surface UV flux by two orders of magnitude under stellar UV flare conditions. The resulting biological effective dose rate is, however, too low to strongly affect surface life. We also examine the surface particle flux: For a planet with a terrestrial atmosphere, a reduction of the magnetic shielding efficiency can increase the biological radiation dose rate by a factor of two. For a planet with a weaker atmosphere (with a surface pressure of 97.8 hPa), the planetary magnetic field has a much stronger influence on the biological radiation dose, changing it by up to two orders of magnitude.Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, published in A&

Urban Cholera transmission hotspots and their implications for Reactive Vaccination: evidence from Bissau city, Guinea Bissau

Use of cholera vaccines in response to epidemics (reactive vaccination) may provide an effective supplement to traditional control measures. In Haiti, reactive vaccination was considered but, until recently, rejected in part due to limited global supply of vaccine. Using Bissau City, Guinea-Bissau as a case study, we explore neighborhood-level transmission dynamics to understand if, with limited vaccine and likely delays, reactive vaccination can significantly change the course of a cholera epidemic

Estimating precipitation on early Mars using a radiative-convective model of the atmosphere and comparison with inferred runoff from geomorphology

We compare estimates of atmospheric precipitation during the Martian Noachian-Hesperian boundary 3.8 Gyr ago as calculated in a radiative-convective column model of the atmosphere with runoff values estimated from a geomorphological analysis of dendritic valley network discharge rates. In the atmospheric model, we assume CO2-H2O-N2 atmospheres with surface pressures varying from 20 mb to 3 bar with input solar luminosity reduced to 75% the modern value. Results from the valley network analysis are of the order of a few mm d-1 liquid water precipitation (1.5-10.6 mm d-1, with a median of 3.1 mm d-1). Atmospheric model results are much lower, from about 0.001-1 mm d-1 of snowfall (depending on CO2 partial pressure). Hence, the atmospheric model predicts a significantly lower amount of precipitated water than estimated from the geomorphological analysis. Furthermore, global mean surface temperatures are below freezing, i.e. runoff is most likely not directly linked to precipitation. Therefore, our results strongly favor a cold early Mars with episodic snowmelt as a source for runoff. Our approach is challenged by mostly unconstrained parameters, e.g. greenhouse gas abundance, global meteorology (for example, clouds) and planetary parameters such as obliquity- which affect the atmospheric result - as as well as by inherent problems in estimating discharge and runoff on ancient Mars, such as a lack of knowledge on infiltration and evaporation rates and on flooding timescales, which affect the geomorphological data. Nevertheless, our work represents a first step in combining and interpreting quantitative tools applied in early Mars atmospheric and geomorphological studies.Comment: accepted in Planetary and Space Science, 37 pages, 14 figures, 2 table

The habitability of a stagnant-lid Earth

Plate tectonics is a fundamental component for the habitability of the Earth. Yet whether it is a recurrent feature of terrestrial bodies orbiting other stars or unique to the Earth is unknown. The stagnant lid may rather be the most common tectonic expression on such bodies. To understand whether a stagnant-lid planet can be habitable, i.e. host liquid water at its surface, we model the thermal evolution of the mantle, volcanic outgassing of H$_2$O and CO$_2$, and resulting climate of an Earth-like planet lacking plate tectonics. We used a 1D model of parameterized convection to simulate the evolution of melt generation and the build-up of an atmosphere of H$_2$O and CO$_2$ over 4.5 Gyr. We then employed a 1D radiative-convective atmosphere model to calculate the global mean atmospheric temperature and the boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ). The evolution of the interior is characterized by the initial production of a large amount of partial melt accompanied by a rapid outgassing of H$_2$O and CO$_2$. At 1 au, the obtained temperatures generally allow for liquid water on the surface nearly over the entire evolution. While the outer edge of the HZ is mostly influenced by the amount of outgassed CO$_2$, the inner edge presents a more complex behaviour that is dependent on the partial pressures of both gases. At 1 au, the stagnant-lid planet considered would be regarded as habitable. The width of the HZ at the end of the evolution, albeit influenced by the amount of outgassed CO$_2$, can vary in a non-monotonic way depending on the extent of the outgassed H$_2$O reservoir. Our results suggest that stagnant-lid planets can be habitable over geological timescales and that joint modelling of interior evolution, volcanic outgassing, and accompanying climate is necessary to robustly characterize planetary habitability

Clouds in the atmospheres of extrasolar planets. I. Climatic effects of multi-layered clouds for Earth-like planets and implications for habitable zones

The effects of multi-layered clouds in the atmospheres of Earth-like planets orbiting different types of stars are studied. The radiative effects of cloud particles are directly correlated with their wavelength-dependent optical properties. Therefore the incident stellar spectra may play an important role for the climatic effect of clouds. We discuss the influence of clouds with mean properties measured in the Earth's atmosphere on the surface temperatures and Bond albedos of Earth-like planets orbiting different types of main sequence dwarf stars.Comment: accepted for publication in A&

Detectability of atmospheric features of Earth-like planets in the habitable zone around M dwarfs

We investigate the detectability of atmospheric spectral features of Earth-like planets in the habitable zone (HZ) around M dwarfs with the future James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). We use a coupled 1D climate-chemistry-model to simulate the influence of a range of observed and modelled M-dwarf spectra on Earth-like planets. The simulated atmospheres served as input for the calculation of the transmission spectra of the hypothetical planets, using a line-by-line spectral radiative transfer model. To investigate the spectroscopic detectability of absorption bands with JWST we further developed a signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) model and applied it to our transmission spectra. High abundances of CH$_4$ and H$_2$O in the atmosphere of Earth-like planets around mid to late M dwarfs increase the detectability of the corresponding spectral features compared to early M-dwarf planets. Increased temperatures in the middle atmosphere of mid- to late-type M-dwarf planets expand the atmosphere and further increase the detectability of absorption bands. To detect CH$_4$, H$_2$O, and CO$_2$ in the atmosphere of an Earth-like planet around a mid to late M dwarf observing only one transit with JWST could be enough up to a distance of 4 pc and less than ten transits up to a distance of 10 pc. As a consequence of saturation limits of JWST and less pronounced absorption bands, the detection of spectral features of hypothetical Earth-like planets around most early M dwarfs would require more than ten transits. We identify 276 existing M dwarfs (including GJ 1132, TRAPPIST-1, GJ 1214, and LHS 1140) around which atmospheric absorption features of hypothetical Earth-like planets could be detected by co-adding just a few transits. We show that using transmission spectroscopy, JWST could provide enough precision to be able to partly characterise the atmosphere of Earth-like TESS planets around mid to late M dwarfs.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figure

The dynamics of measles in sub-Saharan Africa.

Although vaccination has almost eliminated measles in parts of the world, the disease remains a major killer in some high birth rate countries of the Sahel. On the basis of measles dynamics for industrialized countries, high birth rate regions should experience regular annual epidemics. Here, however, we show that measles epidemics in Niger are highly episodic, particularly in the capital Niamey. Models demonstrate that this variability arises from powerful seasonality in transmission-generating high amplitude epidemics-within the chaotic domain of deterministic dynamics. In practice, this leads to frequent stochastic fadeouts, interspersed with irregular, large epidemics. A metapopulation model illustrates how increased vaccine coverage, but still below the local elimination threshold, could lead to increasingly variable major outbreaks in highly seasonally forced contexts. Such erratic dynamics emphasize the importance both of control strategies that address build-up of susceptible individuals and efforts to mitigate the impact of large outbreaks when they occur

The extrasolar planet Gliese 581 d: a potentially habitable planet? (Corrigendum to arXiv:1009.5814)

We report here that the equation for H2O Rayleigh scattering was incorrectly stated in the original paper [arXiv:1009.5814]. Instead of a quadratic dependence on refractivity r, we accidentally quoted an r^4 dependence. Since the correct form of the equation was implemented into the model, scientific results are not affected.Comment: accepted to Astronomy&Astrophysic