Foreign Policy Evaluation and the Utility of Intervention

This dissertation identifies and explains the factors contributing to the presence and severity of U.S. foreign-policy blunders, or gross errors in strategic judgment resulting in significant harm to the national interest, since the Second World War. It hypothesizes that the grand strategy of preponderance and the overestimation of military power to transform the politics of other states have precipitated U.S. foreign-policy blunders since 1945. Examining the Vietnam War and Iraq War as case studies, it focuses on underlying conditions in the American national identity and the problematic foreign policy decision-making (FPDM) that corresponds to this bifurcated hypothesis, termed the overestimation/preponderance theoretical model (OPM). Four indicators operationalize the OPM: (1) how U.S. foreign policymakers estimated the capacity of military power to transform the political dynamics of the target state through intervention; (2) and (3) how U.S. actors and institutions affected the capacity of the partner state and hostile state and nonstate actors; and (4) how the foreign policy was justified and rationalized within the leadership of government and to the general public as it encountered disconfirming information. In each case, the grand strategy of preponderance instituted a bounded rationality of mission in the FPDM stage and the operationalization stage that precluded the inclusion of an unfavorable outcome. In each case, U.S. foreign policymakers greatly overestimated the capacity of the partner state to establish security and legitimacy and underestimated the capacity of hostile actors to mobilize and threaten the partner state. However, these preference-confirmation biases diametrically contradicted the assessment that victory would be easy to achieve; U.S. foreign policymakers promulgated this corresponding overestimation/underestimation even while inflating the threat far beyond what the actual threat to the national-security element of the national interest represented. The subsequent implementing of this inverted calculation created a national-security national interest where none was extant, then significantly harmed that new interest via intervention. This tactical application of the grand strategy of preponderance facilitated the strategic-tactical gap in U.S. foreign policy by creating monsters in order to have monsters to slay, consistent with the ideological tradition of the imperative of crusade in the modern history of American foreign relations

Framing "reality" : an exploration of how events become news items on television : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Media Studies at Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand

"CD is unreadable"Television news does not reflect all that happened on any particular day. It is a selection and reconstruction of some of the available and more newsworthy occurrences. Drawing on the influential work of Herbert Gans this thesis explores and attempts to identify the relevant factors in news selection and the typical influences affecting the final content and form that a television news item takes in representing a news event. Using the method of participant observation ten news events were followed from their initial selection, through the news production process to the final broadcast. This was undertaken over a two week period. The analysis and examination of the institutional and professional forces affecting a news item were supported by interviews, notes and video records. The findings confirm many of the claims made by Gans and others that a television news item is a highly constructed event. Amongst the factors shown to be most significant in this process were conventional criteria of news worthiness, professional production codes and practices, gatekeeping decisions, institutional organisational routines, time constraints and cost benefit considerations

PlantID – DNA-based identification of multiple medicinal plants in complex mixtures

Background An efficient method for the identification of medicinal plant products is now a priority as the global demand increases. This study aims to develop a DNA-based method for the identification and authentication of plant species that can be implemented in the industry to aid compliance with regulations, based upon the economically important Hypericum perforatum L. (St John’s Wort or Guan ye Lian Qiao). Methods The ITS regions of several Hypericum species were analysed to identify the most divergent regions and PCR primers were designed to anneal specifically to these regions in the different Hypericum species. Candidate primers were selected such that the amplicon produced by each species-specific reaction differed in size. The use of fluorescently labelled primers enabled these products to be resolved by capillary electrophoresis. Results Four closely related Hypericum species were detected simultaneously and independently in one reaction. Each species could be identified individually and in any combination. The introduction of three more closely related species to the test had no effect on the results. Highly processed commercial plant material was identified, despite the potential complications of DNA degradation in such samples. Conclusion This technique can detect the presence of an expected plant material and adulterant materials in one reaction. The method could be simply applied to other medicinal plants and their problem adulterants

Evaluation of binomial double sums involving absolute values

We show that double sums of the form $$\sum_{i,j=-n} ^{n} |i^sj^t(i^k-j^k)^\beta| \binom {2n} {n+i} \binom {2n} {n+j}$$ can always be expressed in terms of a linear combination of just four functions, namely $\binom {4n}{2n}$, ${\binom {2n}n}^2$, $4^n\binom {2n}n$, and $16^n$, with coefficients that are rational in $n$. We provide two different proofs: one is algorithmic and uses the second author's computer algebra package Sigma; the second is based on complex contour integrals. In many instances, these results are extended to double sums of the above form where $\binom {2n}{n+j}$ is replaced by $\binom {2m}{m+j}$ with independent parameter $m$.Comment: AmS-LaTeX, 42 pages; substantial revision: several additional and more general results, see Proposition 11 and Theorems 15-1

Biomechanical Consequences of Rapid Evolution in the Polar Bear Lineage

The polar bear is the only living ursid with a fully carnivorous diet. Despite a number of well-documented craniodental adaptations for a diet of seal flesh and blubber, molecular and paleontological data indicate that this morphologically distinct species evolved less than a million years ago from the omnivorous brown bear. To better understand the evolution of this dietary specialization, we used phylogenetic tests to estimate the rate of morphological specialization in polar bears. We then used finite element analysis (FEA) to compare the limits of feeding performance in the polar bear skull to that of the phylogenetically and geographically close brown bear. Results indicate that extremely rapid evolution of semi-aquatic adaptations and dietary specialization in the polar bear lineage produced a cranial morphology that is weaker than that of brown bears and less suited to processing tough omnivorous or herbivorous diets. Our results suggest that continuation of current climate trends could affect polar bears by not only eliminating their primary food source, but also through competition with northward advancing, generalized brown populations for resources that they are ill-equipped to utilize

Implications of predatory specialization for cranial form and function in canids.

Abstract The shape of the cranium varies widely among members of the order Carnivora, but the factors that drive the evolution of differences in shape remain unclear. Selection for increased bite force, bite speed or skull strength may all affect cranial morphology. We investigated the relationship between cranial form and function in the trophically diverse dog family, Canidae, using linear morphometrics and finite element (FE) analyses that simulated the internal and external forces that act on the skull during the act of prey capture and killing. In contrast to previous FE-based studies, we compared models using a newly developed method that removes the effects of size and highlights the relationship between shape and performance. Cranial shape varies among canids based on diet, and different selective forces presumably drove evolution of these phenotypes. The long, narrow jaws of small prey specialists appear to reflect selection for fast jaw closure at the expense of bite force. Generalists have intermediate jaw dimensions and produce moderate bite forces, but their crania are comparable in strength to those of small prey specialists. Canids that take large prey have short, broad jaws, produce the largest bite forces and possess very strong crania. Our FE simulations suggest that the remarkable strength of skulls of large prey specialists reflect the additional ability to resist extrinsic loads that may be encountered while struggling with large prey items

Food-Level Analysis to Identify Dietary Choices With the Highest Nutritional Quality and Lowest Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Price

FUNDING This research was funded by the Scottish Government’s Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS) and responsive opportunity funding from the Scottish Environment, Food and Agriculture Research Institutes (SEFARI).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Nutritional Quality, Environmental Impact and Cost of Ultra-Processed Foods : A UK Food-Based Analysis

This research was funded by the Scottish Government’s Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS) and responsive opportunity funding from the Scottish Environment, Food and Agriculture Research Institutes (SEFARI).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

The interaction of a gap with a free boundary in a two dimensional dimer system

Let $\ell$ be a fixed vertical lattice line of the unit triangular lattice in the plane, and let \Cal H be the half plane to the left of $\ell$. We consider lozenge tilings of \Cal H that have a triangular gap of side-length two and in which $\ell$ is a free boundary - i.e., tiles are allowed to protrude out half-way across $\ell$. We prove that the correlation function of this gap near the free boundary has asymptotics $\frac{1}{4\pi r}$, $r\to\infty$, where $r$ is the distance from the gap to the free boundary. This parallels the electrostatic phenomenon by which the field of an electric charge near a conductor can be obtained by the method of images.Comment: 34 pages, AmS-Te