Associations between neighbourhood environmental factors and the uptake and effectiveness of a brief intervention to increase physical activity

Background Evidence suggests behavioural interventions may exacerbate health inequalities, potentially due to differences in uptake or effectiveness. We used a physical activity intervention targeting deprived communities to identify neighbourhood-level factors that might explain differences in programme impact. Methods Individuals aged 40–65 were sent a postal invitation offering a brief intervention to increase physical activity. We used postcodes linkage to determine whether neighbourhood indicators of deprivation, housing, crime and proximity to green spaces and leisure facilities predicted uptake of the initial invitation or an increase in physical activity level in those receiving the brief intervention. Results A total of 4134 (6.8%) individuals responded to the initial invitation and of those receiving the intervention and contactable after 3 months, 486 (51.6%) reported an increase in physical activity. Area deprivation scores linked to postcodes predicted intervention uptake, but not intervention effectiveness. Neighbourhood indicators did not predict either uptake or intervention effectiveness. Conclusions The main barrier to using brief intervention invitations to increase physical activity in deprived, middle-aged populations was the low uptake of an intervention requiring significant time and motivation from participants. Once individuals have taken up the intervention offer, neighbourhood characteristics did not appear to be significant barriers to successful lifestyle change

The impact of a local sugar sweetened beverage health promotion and price increase on sales in public leisure centre facilities

BACKGROUND: We aimed to evaluate the impact of a local sugar sweetened beverages (SSB) health promotion and 20p price increase in leisure centre venues and estimate the impact on consumption. METHOD: Monthly cold drinks sales data and attendance at leisure centres across the city of Sheffield were analysed over the period January 2015-July 2017. Interrupted time-series methods were employed to estimate changes in consumption per attendance of SSB and non-SSB cold drinks following the introduction of the SSB policy from August 2016 adjusting for seasonal variation and autocorrelation. SSB price elasticities were estimated with fixed effects log-log models by SSB product type (soda can, soda bottle, soda post mix, energy drinks, juice from concentrate). FINDINGS: We estimated a 31% (95% CI 4%, 59%) reduction in units of SSB sold per attendance in the year since the policy was introduced. We did not observe substitution effects to fruit juice or water but found sales of other artificially sweetened non-SSB products increased by 27% (95% CI 6%, 47%) after the introduction of the tax. Price elasticity analysis identified that a 1% increase in price alongside health promotion leads to a 3.8% (95% CI 3.1% 4.4%) decrease in demand for SSB's. Price elasticity of demand was highest for child friendly and high caffeine energy drinks. INTERPRETATION: Demand for SSB drinks at leisure centre venues is highly responsive to the policy, particularly for child-friendly and high caffeine energy drinks, compared with other SSB tax policy evaluations. The policy also increased purchases of carbonated non-SSB

Regioselective Dehydration of Sugar Thioacetals under Mild Conditions

Sugars are abundant in waste biomass, making them sustainable chiral building blocks for organic synthesis. The demand for chiral saturated heterocyclic rings for pharmaceutical applications is increasing as they provide well-defined three-dimensional frameworks that show increased metabolic resistance. A range of sugar thioacetals can be dehydrated selectively at C-2 under mild basic conditions, and the resulting ketene thioacetals can be applied to the production of useful chiral building blocks via further selective dehydration reactions

The lack of variability of the iron line in MCG-6-30-15: general relativistic effects

The spectrum and variability of the Seyfert galaxy MCG-6-30-15 can be decomposed into two apparently disconnected components: a highly variable power law and an almost constant component which contains a broad and strong iron line. We explore a possible explanation of the puzzling lack of variability of the iron line, by assuming that the variations of the power law component are due to changes in the height of the primary source in the near vicinity of a rotating black hole. Due to the bending of light in the strong field of the central black hole, the apparent brightness of the power-law component can vary by about a factor 4 according to its position, while the total iron line flux variability is less than 20 percent. This behaviour is obtained if the primary source is located within 3-4 gravitational radii ($r_{\rm g}$) from the rotation axis with a variable height of between $\sim$ 3 and 8 $r_{\rm g}$. These results revive the possibility that future X-ray observations of MCG-6-30-15 can map out the strong gravity regime of accreting black holes.Comment: accepted for publication in MNRAS Letter

A comparison of the World Health Organisation's HEAT model results using a non-linear physical activity dose response function with results from the existing tool [under peer review]

Introduction The WHO-Europe’s Health Economic Assessment Tool is a tool used to estimate the costs and benefits of changes in walking and cycling. Due to data limitations the tool’s physical activity module assumes a linear dose response relationship be-tween physical activity and mortality. Methods This study estimates baseline population physical activity distributions for 44 countries included in the HEAT. It then compares, for three different scenarios, the results generated by the current method, using a linear dose-response relationship, with results generated using a non-linear dose-response relationship. Results The study finds that estimated deaths averted are relatively higher (lower) using the non-linear effect in countries with less (more) active populations. This difference is largest for interventions which affect the activity levels of the least active the most. Since more active populations, e.g. in Eastern Europe, also tend to have lower Value of a Statistical Life estimates the net monetary benefit estimated by the scenarios are much higher in western-Europe than eastern-Europe. Conclusions Using a non-linear dose response function results in materially different estimates where populations are particularly inactive or particularly active. Estimating base-line distributions is possible with limited additional data requirements, although the method has yet to be validated. Given the significant role of the physical activity module within the HEAT tool it is likely that in the evaluation of many interventions the monetary benefit estimates will be sensitive to the choice of the physical activity dose response function

Determining when a hospital admission of an older person can be avoided in a subacute setting: a systematic review and concept analysis

Objective To conduct a systematic review of the evidence for when a hospital admission for an older person can be avoided in subacute settings. We examined the definition of admission avoidance and the evidence for the factors that are required to avoid admission to hospital in this setting. Methods Using defined PICOD criteria, we conducted searches in three databases (Medline, Embase and Cinahl) from January 2006 to February 2018. References were screened by title and abstract followed by full paper screening by two reviewers. Additional studies were searched from the grey literature, experts in the field and forward and backward referencing. Data were narratively described, and concept analysis was used to investigate the definition of admission avoidance. Results A total of 17 studies were considered eligible for review; eight provided a definition of admission avoidance and 10 described admission avoidance criteria. We identified three factors which play a key role in admission avoidance in the subacute setting: (1) ambulatory care sensitive conditions and common medical scenarios for the older person, which included respiratory infections or pneumonia, urinary tract infections and catheter care, dehydration and associated symptoms, falls and behavioural management, and managing ongoing chronic conditions; (2) criteria/tools, referring to interventions that have used clinical expertise in conjunction with a range of general and geriatric triage tools; in condition-specific interventions, the decision whether to admit or not was based on level of risk determined by defined clinical tools; and (3) personnel and resources, referring to the need for experts to make the initial decision to avoid an admission. Supervision by nurses or physicians was still needed at subacute level, requiring resources such as short-stay beds, intravenous antibiotic treatment or fluids for rehydration and rapid access to laboratory tests. Conclusion<jats:p/> The review identified a set of criteria for ambulatory care sensitive conditions and common medical scenarios for the older person that can be treated in the subacute setting with appropriate tools and resources. This information can help commissioners and care providers to take on these important elements and deliver them in a locally designed way

A comparison of the World Health Organisation's HEAT model results using a non-linear physical activity dose response function with results from the existing tool

Introduction: The WHO-Europe’s Health Economic Assessment Tool is a tool used to estimate the costs and benefits of changes in walking and cycling. Due to data limitations the tool’s physical activity module assumes a linear dose response relationship be-tween physical activity and mortality. Methods: This study estimates baseline population physical activity distributions for 44 countries included in the HEAT. It then compares, for three different scenarios, the results generated by the current method, using a linear dose-response relationship, with results generated using a non-linear dose-response relationship. Results: The study finds that estimated deaths averted are relatively higher (lower) using the non-linear effect in countries with less (more) active populations. This difference is largest for interventions which affect the activity levels of the least active the most. Since more active populations, e.g. in Eastern Europe, also tend to have lower Value of a Statistical Life estimates the net monetary benefit estimated by the scenarios are much higher in western-Europe than eastern-Europe. Conclusions: Using a non-linear dose response function results in materially different estimates where populations are particularly inactive or particularly active. Estimating base-line distributions is possible with limited additional data requirements, although the method has yet to be validated. Given the significant role of the physical activity module within the HEAT tool it is likely that in the evaluation of many interventions the monetary benefit estimates will be sensitive to the choice of the physical activity dose response function

The Sun's position in the sky

We express the position of the Sun in the sky as a function of time and the observer's geographic coordinates. Our method is based on applying rotation matrices to vectors describing points on the celestial sphere. We also derive direct expressions, as functions of date of the year and geographic latitude, for the duration of daylight, the maximum and minimum altitudes of the Sun, and the cardinal directions to sunrise and sunset. We discuss how to account for the eccentricity of the earth's orbit, the precessions of the equinoxes and the perihelion, the size of the solar disk, and atmospheric refraction. We illustrate these results by computing the dates of "Manhattanhenge" (when sunset aligns with the east-west streets on the main traffic grid for Manhattan, in New York City), by plotting the altitude of the Sun over representative cities as a function of time, and by showing plots ("analemmas") for the position of the Sun in the sky at a given hour of the day.Comment: 19 pages, 16 figures. v3: Replaced to match published version and to re-package Mathematica notebook as an ancillary fil

Screening for type 2 diabetes : literature review and economic modelling

Objectives: To reconsider the aims of screening for undiagnosed diabetes, and whether screening should be for other abnormalities of glucose metabolism such as impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), or the ‘metabolic syndrome’. Also to update the previous review for the National Screening Committee (NSC) on screening for diabetes, including reviewing choice of screening test; to consider what measures would be taken if IGT and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) were identified by screening, and in particular to examine evidence on treatment to prevent progression to diabetes in these groups; to examine the cost-effectiveness of screening; and to consider groups at higher risk at which screening might be targeted. Data sources: Electronic databases were searched up to the end of June 2005. Review methods: Literature searches and review concentrated on evidence published since the last review of screening, both reviews and primary studies. The review of economic studies included only those models that covered screening. The new modelling extended an existing diabetes treatment model by developing a screening module. The NSC has a set of criteria, which it applies to new screening proposals. These criteria cover the condition, the screening test or tests, treatment and the screening programme. Screening for diabetes was considered using these criteria. Results: Detection of lesser degrees of glucose intolerance such as IGT is worthwhile, partly because the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) can be reduced by treatment aimed at reducing cholesterol level and blood pressure, and partly because some diabetes can be prevented. Several trials have shown that both lifestyle measures and pharmacological treatment can reduce the proportion of people with IGT who would otherwise develop diabetes. Screening could be two-stage, starting with the selection of people at higher risk. The second-stage choice of test for blood glucose remains a problem, as in the last review for NSC. The best test is the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT), but it is the most expensive, is inconvenient and has weak reproducibility. Fasting plasma glucose would miss people with IGT. Glycatedhaemoglobin does not require fasting, and may be the best compromise. It may be that more people would be tested and diagnosed if the more convenient test was used, rather than the OGTT. Five economic studies assessed the costs and short-term outcomes of using different screening tests. None examined the long-term impact of different proportions of false negatives. All considered the costs that would be incurred and the numbers identified by different tests, or different cut-offs. Results differed depending on different assumptions. They did not give a clear guide as to which test would be the best in any UK screening programme, but all recognised that the choice of cut-off would be a compromise between sensitivity and specificity; there is no perfect test. The modelling exercise concluded that screening for diabetes appears to be cost-effective for the 40–70-year age band, more so for the older age bands, but even in the 40–49-year age group, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for screening versus no screening is only £10,216 per quality-adjusted life-year. Screening is more cost-effective for people in the hypertensive and obese subgroups and the costs of screening are offset in many groups by lower future treatment costs. The cost-effectiveness of screening is determined as much by, if not more than, assumptions about the degree of control of blood glucose and future treatment protocols than by assumptions relating to the screening programme. The very low cost now of statins is also an important factor. Although the prevalence of diabetes increases with age, the relative risk of CVD falls, reducing the benefits of screening. Screening for diabetes meets most of the NSC criteria, but probably fails on three: criterion 12, on optimisation of existing management of the condition; criterion 13, which requires that there should be evidence from high-quality randomised controlled trials (RCTs) showing that a screening programme would reduce mortality or morbidity; and criterion 18, that there should be adequate staffing and facilities for all aspects of the programme. It is uncertain whether criterion 19, that all other options, including prevention, should have been considered, is met. The issue here is whether all methods of improving lifestyles in order to reduce obesity and increase exercise have been sufficiently tried. The rise in overweight and obesity suggests that health promotion interventions have not so far been effective. Conclusions: The case for screening for undiagnosed diabetes is probably somewhat stronger than it was at the last review, because of the greater options for reduction of CVD, principally through the use of statins, and because of the rising prevalence of obesity and hence type 2 diabetes. However, there is also a good case for screening for IGT, with the aim of preventing some future diabetes and reducing CVD. Further research is needed into the duration of undiagnosed diabetes, and whether the rise in blood glucose levels is linear throughout or whether there may be a slower initial phase followed by an acceleration around the time of clinical diagnosis. This has implications for the interval after which screening would be repeated. Further research is also needed into the natural history of IGT, and in particular what determines progression to diabetes. An RCT of the type required by NSC criterion 13 is under way but will not report for about 7 years

The price of precision: trade-offs between usability and validity in the World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment Tool for walking and cycling

Objectives The widely used World Health Organization (WHO) Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) for walking and cycling quantifies health impacts in terms of premature deaths avoided or caused as a result of changes in active transport. This article attempts to assess the effect of incorporating ‘life-years’ as an impact measure to increase the precision of the model and assess the effect on the tool's usability. Study design This article is a methods paper, using simulation to estimate the effect of a methodological change to the HEAT 4.2 physical activity module. Methods We use the widely used WHO HEAT for walking and cycling as a case study. HEAT currently quantifies health impacts in terms of premature deaths avoided or caused as a result of changes in active transport. We assess the effect of incorporating “duration of life gained” as an impact measure to increase the precision of the model without substantially affecting usability or increasing data requirements. Results Compared with the existing tool (HEAT version 4.2), which values premature deaths avoided, estimates derived by valuing life-years gained are more sensitive to the age of the population affected by an intervention, with results for older and younger age groups being markedly different between the two methods. This is likely to improve the precision of the tool, especially where it is applied to interventions that affect age groups differentially. The life-years method requires additional background data (obtained and used in this analysis) and minimal additional user inputs; however, this may also make the tool harder to explain to users. Conclusions Methodological improvements in the precision of widely used tools, such as the HEAT, may also inadvertently reduce their practical usability. It is therefore important to consider the overall impact on the tool's value to stakeholders and explore ways of mitigating potential reductions in usability