A CRISP-DM-based Methodology for Assessing Agent-based Simulation Models using Process Mining

Agent-based simulation (ABS) models are potent tools for analyzing complex systems. However, understanding and validating ABS models can be a significant challenge. To address this challenge, cutting-edge data-driven techniques offer sophisticated capabilities for analyzing the outcomes of ABS models. One such technique is process mining, which encompasses a range of methods for discovering, monitoring, and enhancing processes by extracting knowledge from event logs. However, applying process mining to event logs derived from ABSs is not trivial, and deriving meaningful insights from the resulting process models adds an additional layer of complexity. Although process mining is invaluable in extracting insights from ABS models, there is a lack of comprehensive methodological guidance for its application in ABS evaluation in the research landscape. In this paper, we propose a methodology, based on the CRoss-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) methodology, to assess ABS models using process mining techniques. We incorporate process mining techniques into the stages of the CRISP-DM methodology, facilitating the analysis of ABS model behaviors and their underlying processes. We demonstrate our methodology using an established agent-based model, Schelling model of segregation. Our results show that our proposed methodology can effectively assess ABS models through produced event logs, potentially paving the way for enhanced agent-based model validity and more insightful decision-making

A CRISP-DM-based methodology for assessing agent-based simulation models using process mining

Agent-based simulation (ABS) models are powerful tools for analyzing complex systems. However, understanding and validating ABS models can be challenging. Data-driven techniques, such as process mining, offer promising capabilities for addressing these challenges. Process mining enables the discovery, monitoring, and enhancement of processes by extracting insights from event logs. However, applying process mining to ABS-generated logs and interpreting the results is not trivial. Despite its potential, limited methodological guidance exists for using process mining in ABS evaluation. This paper proposes a methodology, grounded in the CRoss-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM), to assess ABS models via process mining. By integrating process mining techniques into the phases of CRISP-DM, we support the analysis of ABS behaviors and their underlying processes. We demonstrate our methodology using Schelling’s segregation model. Our results indicate that our proposed methodology effectively evaluates ABS models using event logs, enhancing model validity and supporting more informed decision-making.</p

A CRISP-DM-based Methodology for Assessing Agent-based Simulation Models using Process Mining

Agent-based simulation (ABS) models are potent tools for analyzing complex systems. However, understanding and validating ABS models can be a significant challenge. To address this challenge, cutting-edge data-driven techniques offer sophisticated capabilities for analyzing the outcomes of ABS models. One such technique is process mining, which encompasses a range of methods for discovering, monitoring, and enhancing processes by extracting knowledge from event logs. However, applying process mining to event logs derived from ABSs is not trivial, and deriving meaningful insights from the resulting process models adds an additional layer of complexity. Although process mining is invaluable in extracting insights from ABS models, there is a lack of comprehensive methodological guidance for its application in ABS evaluation in the research landscape. In this paper, we propose a methodology, based on the CRoss-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) methodology, to assess ABS models using process mining techniques. We incorporate process mining techniques into the stages of the CRISP-DM methodology, facilitating the analysis of ABS model behaviors and their underlying processes. We demonstrate our methodology using an established agent-based model, Schelling model of segregation. Our results show that our proposed methodology can effectively assess ABS models through produced event logs, potentially paving the way for enhanced agent-based model validity and more insightful decision-making

Advancing presence and changes in body size of brown shrimp <i>Crangon crangon</i> on intertidal flats in the western Dutch Wadden Sea, 1984–2018

Upon settlement after a pelagic larval phase, brown shrimp Crangon crangon depend on intertidal flats. During low as well as high tide the young brown shrimp play roles as predators of meiofauna and as prey for fish and birds. Unlike the biol- ogy of the commercially important adults, knowledge on these juveniles remains sketchy. Here we provide an analysis of 35 years (1984–2018) of brown shrimp monitoring in May–June on intertidal flats in the westernmost Dutch Wadden Sea. Intertidal shrimp densities were sampled bi-weekly at three stations during low tide, using sampling corers. We show that over this 35-year period the appearance of shrimp on mudflats advanced by 12 days (− 0.34 days yr−1). Simultaneously, densities on 7 May increased by more than 2.4 times, from 28 shrimp m−2 in 1984 to 69 shrimp m−2 in 2018. Across years, mean shrimp length decreased from 12.6 to 10.7 mm, but length in early May did not change. The advancement in settle- ment and the increasing shrimp densities correlated with increases in the seawater temperatures in April more than during earlier times of the year. We propose four interpretations of these changes: (1) shrimp settle on the mudflat when they reach a certain ‘threshold’ length, (2) settlement of shrimp is controlled by a critical period of ‘threshold’ temperature sensitivity, (3) timing of shrimp settlement is a response to food availability on mudflats or (4) a direct response to inferred predation pressure. The different interpretations will lead to different scenarios of change in a warming world

Offshore Landward Motion Shortly After a Subduction Earthquake Implies Rapid Relocking of the Shallow Megathrust

Geodetic observations after large subduction earthquakes reflect multiple postseismic processes, including megathrust relocking. The timing of relocking and the observational constraints on it are unclear. Relocking was inferred to explain some observed landward motion that occurs within months. It was also considered unable to explain other, greater landward motion, including that off the coast of Japan beginning weeks after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, attributed to postseismic relaxation. We use generic, 3D numerical models to show that relocking, particularly of the shallow interface, is needed for postseismic relaxation to produce landward motion on the tip of the overriding plate. We argue that this finding is consistent with previous simulations that implicitly relock the megathrust where afterslip is not included. We conclude that the Tohoku megathrust relocked within less than 2 months of the earthquake. This suggests that the shallow megathrust probably behaves as a true, unstably sliding asperity

Growth, maturity, and diet of the pearl whipray (<i>Fontitrygon margaritella</i>) from the Bijagós Archipelago, Guinea-Bissau

The pearl whipray Fontitrygon margaritella (Compagno & Roberts, 1984) is a common elasmobranch in coastal western African waters. However, knowledge on their life-history and trophic ecology remains limited. Therefore, we aimed to determine the growth, maturity and diet of F. margaritella from the Bijagós Archipelago in Guinea-Bissau. Growth was modelled with: von Bertalanffy, Gompertz and logistic functions. Model selection revealed no model significantly outperformed another. The sampled age ranged from less than 1 to 7 years (1.8 ± 1.9 cm, mean ± standard deviation) and size (disc width) ranged from 12.2 to 30.6 cm (18.7 ± 5.2 cm). Size-at-maturity was estimated at 20.3 cm (95% CI [18.8–21.8 cm]) for males and 24.3 cm for females (95% CI [21.9–26.5 cm]), corresponding ages of 2.2 and 3.9 years. The diet differed significantly among young-of-the-year (YOY), juveniles and adults (p = 0.001). Diet of all life stages consisted mainly of crustaceans (27.4%, 28.5%, 33.3%) and polychaetes (12.5%, 26.7%, 20.3%), for YOY, juveniles and adults respectively. This study shows that F. margaritella is relatively fast-growing, matures early and experiences ontogenetic diet shifts. These results contribute to status assessments and conservation efforts of F. margaritella and closely related species

Dynamics of the African Plate 75 Ma: From Plate Kinematic Reconstructions to Intraplate Paleo-Stresses

Plate reconstruction studies show that the Neotethys Ocean was closing due to the convergence of Africa and Eurasia toward the end of the Cretaceous. The period around 75 Ma reflects the onset of continental collision between the two plates as convergence continued to be taken up mostly by subduction of the Neotethys slab beneath Eurasia. The Owen transform plate boundary in the northeast accommodated the fast northward motion of the Indian plate relative to the African plate. The rest of the plate was surrounded by mid-ocean ridges. Africa was experiencing continent-wide rifting related to northeast-southwest extension. We aim to quantify the forces and paleostresses that may have driven this continental extension. We use the latest plate kinematic reconstructions in a grid search to estimate horizontal gravitational stresses (HGSs), plate boundary forces, and the plate's interaction with the asthenosphere. The contribution of dynamic topography to HGSs is based on recent mantle convection studies. We model intraplate stresses and compare them with the strain observations. The fit to observations favors models where dynamic topography amplitudes are smaller than 300 m. The results also indicate that the net pull transmitted from slab to the surface African plate was low. To put this into context, we notice that available tectonic reconstructions show fragmented subduction zones and various colliding micro-continents along the northern margin of the African plate around this time. We therefore interpret a low net pull as resulting from either a small average slab length or from the micro-continents' resistance to subduction

Estimating geodynamic model parameters from geodetic observations using a particle method

Bayesian-based data assimilation methods integrate observational data into geophysical forward models to obtain the temporal evolution of an improved state vector, including its uncertainties. We explore the potential of a variant, a particle method, to estimate mechanical parameters of the overriding plate during the interseismic period. Here we assimilate vertical surface displacements into an elementary flexural model to estimate the elastic thickness of the overriding plate, and the locations and magnitudes of line loads acting on the overriding plate to produce flexure. Assimilation of synthetic observations sampled from a different forward model than is used in the particle method, reveal that synthetic seafloor data within 150 km from the trench are required to properly constrain parameters for long wavelength solutions of the upper plate (i.e. wavelength ∼500 km). Assimilation of synthetic observations sampled from the same flexural model used in the particle method shows remarkable convergence towards the true parameters with synthetic on-land data only for short to intermediate wavelength solutions (i.e. wavelengths between ∼100 and 300 km). In real-data assimilation experiments we assign representation errors due to discrepancies between our incorrect or incomplete physical model and the data. When assimilating continental data prior to the 2011 Mw Tohoku-Oki earthquake (1997–2000), an unrealistically low effective elastic plate thickness for Tohoku of ∼5–7 km is estimated. Our synthetic experiments suggest that improvements to the physical forward model, such as the inclusion of a slab, a megathrust interface and viscoelasticity of the mantle, including accurate seafloor data, and additional geodetic observations, may refine our estimates of the effective elastic plate thickness. Overall, we demonstrate the potential of using the particle method to constrain geodynamic parameters by providing constraints on parameters and corresponding uncertainty values. Using the particle method, we provide insights into the data network sensitivity and identify parameter trade-offs

Reconciling the conflicting extent of overriding plate deformation before and during megathrust earthquakes in South America, Sunda and northeast Japan

We aim to better understand the overriding plate deformation during the megathrust earthquake cycle. We estimate the spatial patterns of interseismic GNSS velocities in South America, Southeast Asia and northern Japan and the associated uncertainties due to variations in network density and observation uncertainties. Interseismic velocities with respect to the overriding plate generally decrease with distance from the trench with a steep gradient up to a 'hurdle', beyond which the gradient is distinctly lower and velocities are small. The hurdle is located 500-1000 km away from the trench for the trench-perpendicular velocity component, and either at the same distance or closer for the trench-parallel component. Significant coseismic displacements were observed beyond these hurdles during the 2010 Maule, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman, and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes. We hypothesize that both the interseismic hurdle and the coseismic response result from a mechanical contrast in the overriding plate. We test our hypothesis using physically consistent, generic, 3-D finite element models of the earthquake cycle. Our models show a response similar to the interseismic and coseismic observations for a compliant near-trench overriding plate and an at least five times stiffer overriding plate beyond the contrast. The model results suggest that hurdles are more prominently expressed in observations near strongly locked megathrusts. Previous studies inferred major tectonic or geological boundaries and seismological contrasts located close to the observed hurdles in the studied overriding plates. The compliance contrast probably results from thermal, compositional and thickness contrasts and might cause the observed focusing of smaller-scale deformation like backthrusting

Artilysation' of endolysin λSa2lys strongly improves its enzymatic and antibacterial activity against streptococci

Endolysins constitute a promising class of antibacterials against Gram-positive bacteria. Recently, endolysins have been engineered with selected peptides to obtain a new generation of lytic proteins, Artilysins, with specific activity against Gram-negative bacteria. Here, we demonstrate that artilysation can also be used to enhance the antibacterial activity of endolysins against Gram-positive bacteria and to reduce the dependence on external conditions. Art-240, a chimeric protein of the anti-streptococcal endolysin λSa2lys and the polycationic peptide PCNP, shows a similar species specificity as the parental endolysin, but the bactericidal activity against streptococci increases and is less affected by elevated NaCl concentrations and pH variations. Time-kill experiments and time-lapse microscopy demonstrate that the killing rate of Art-240 is approximately two-fold higher compared to wildtype endolysin λSa2lys, with a reduction in viable bacteria of 3 log units after 10min. In addition, lower doses of Art240 are required to achieve the same bactericidal effect