A Seismologically Consistent Surface Rupture Length Model for Unbounded and Width-Limited Event

A new surface-rupture-length ($SRL$) relationship as a function of magnitude ($\mathbf{M}$), fault thickness, and fault dip angle is presented in this paper. The objective of this study is to model the change in scaling between unbounded and width-limited ruptures. This is achieved through the use of seismological-theory-based relationships for the average displacement scaling and the aid of dynamic fault rupture simulations to constrain the rupture width scaling. The empirical dataset used in the development of this relationship is composed of $123$ events ranging from $\mathbf{M}~5$ to $8.1$ and $SRL~1.1$ to $432~km$. The dynamic rupture simulations dataset includes $554$ events ranging from $\mathbf{M}~4.9$ to $8.2$ and $SRL~1$ to $655~km$. For the average displacement ($\bar{D}$) scaling, three simple models and two composite models were evaluated. The simple average displacement models were: a square root of the rupture area ($\sqrt{A}$), a down-dip width ($W$), and a rupture length ($L$) proportional model. The two composite models followed a $\sqrt{A}$ scaling for unbounded ruptures and transitioned to $W$ and $L$ scaling for width-limited events, respectively. The empirical data favors a $\bar{D} \sim \sqrt{A}$ scaling for both unbounded and width-limited ruptures. The proposed model exhibits better predictive performance compared to linear $\log(SLR)\sim\mathbf{M}$ type models, especially in the large magnitude range, which is dominated by width-limited events. A comparison with existing $SRL$ models shows consistent scaling at different magnitude ranges that is believed to be the result of the different magnitude ranges in the empirical dataset of the published relationships.Comment: 21 pages, 11 figure

An Assessment to Benchmark the Seismic Performance of a Code-Conforming Reinforced-Concrete Moment-Frame Building

This report describes a state-of-the-art performance-based earthquake engineering methodology that is used to assess the seismic performance of a four-story reinforced concrete (RC) office building that is generally representative of low-rise office buildings constructed in highly seismic regions of California. This “benchmark” building is considered to be located at a site in the Los Angeles basin, and it was designed with a ductile RC special moment-resisting frame as its seismic lateral system that was designed according to modern building codes and standards. The building’s performance is quantified in terms of structural behavior up to collapse, structural and nonstructural damage and associated repair costs, and the risk of fatalities and their associated economic costs. To account for different building configurations that may be designed in practice to meet requirements of building size and use, eight structural design alternatives are used in the performance assessments. Our performance assessments account for important sources of uncertainty in the ground motion hazard, the structural response, structural and nonstructural damage, repair costs, and life-safety risk. The ground motion hazard characterization employs a site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the evaluation of controlling seismic sources (through disaggregation) at seven ground motion levels (encompassing return periods ranging from 7 to 2475 years). Innovative procedures for ground motion selection and scaling are used to develop acceleration time history suites corresponding to each of the seven ground motion levels. Structural modeling utilizes both “fiber” models and “plastic hinge” models. Structural modeling uncertainties are investigated through comparison of these two modeling approaches, and through variations in structural component modeling parameters (stiffness, deformation capacity, degradation, etc.). Structural and nonstructural damage (fragility) models are based on a combination of test data, observations from post-earthquake reconnaissance, and expert opinion. Structural damage and repair costs are modeled for the RC beams, columns, and slabcolumn connections. Damage and associated repair costs are considered for some nonstructural building components, including wallboard partitions, interior paint, exterior glazing, ceilings, sprinkler systems, and elevators. The risk of casualties and the associated economic costs are evaluated based on the risk of structural collapse, combined with recent models on earthquake fatalities in collapsed buildings and accepted economic modeling guidelines for the value of human life in loss and cost-benefit studies. The principal results of this work pertain to the building collapse risk, damage and repair cost, and life-safety risk. These are discussed successively as follows. When accounting for uncertainties in structural modeling and record-to-record variability (i.e., conditional on a specified ground shaking intensity), the structural collapse probabilities of the various designs range from 2% to 7% for earthquake ground motions that have a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (2475 years return period). When integrated with the ground motion hazard for the southern California site, the collapse probabilities result in mean annual frequencies of collapse in the range of [0.4 to 1.4]x10 -4 for the various benchmark building designs. In the development of these results, we made the following observations that are expected to be broadly applicable: (1) The ground motions selected for performance simulations must consider spectral shape (e.g., through use of the epsilon parameter) and should appropriately account for correlations between motions in both horizontal directions; (2) Lower-bound component models, which are commonly used in performance-based assessment procedures such as FEMA 356, can significantly bias collapse analysis results; it is more appropriate to use median component behavior, including all aspects of the component model (strength, stiffness, deformation capacity, cyclic deterioration, etc.); (3) Structural modeling uncertainties related to component deformation capacity and post-peak degrading stiffness can impact the variability of calculated collapse probabilities and mean annual rates to a similar degree as record-to-record variability of ground motions. Therefore, including the effects of such structural modeling uncertainties significantly increases the mean annual collapse rates. We found this increase to be roughly four to eight times relative to rates evaluated for the median structural model; (4) Nonlinear response analyses revealed at least six distinct collapse mechanisms, the most common of which was a story mechanism in the third story (differing from the multi-story mechanism predicted by nonlinear static pushover analysis); (5) Soil-foundation-structure interaction effects did not significantly affect the structural response, which was expected given the relatively flexible superstructure and stiff soils. The potential for financial loss is considerable. Overall, the calculated expected annual losses (EAL) are in the range of $52,000 to$97,000 for the various code-conforming benchmark building designs, or roughly 1% of the replacement cost of the building ($8.8M). These losses are dominated by the expected repair costs of the wallboard partitions (including interior paint) and by the structural members. Loss estimates are sensitive to details of the structural models, especially the initial stiffness of the structural elements. Losses are also found to be sensitive to structural modeling choices, such as ignoring the tensile strength of the concrete (40 EAL) or the contribution of the gravity frames to overall building stiffness and strength (15 change in EAL). Although there are a number of factors identified in the literature as likely to affect the risk of human injury during seismic events, the casualty modeling in this study focuses on those factors (building collapse, building occupancy, and spatial location of building occupants) that directly inform the building design process. The expected annual number of fatalities is calculated for the benchmark building, assuming that an earthquake can occur at any time of any day with equal probability and using fatality probabilities conditioned on structural collapse and based on empirical data. The expected annual number of fatalities for the code-conforming buildings ranges between 0.05*10 -2 and 0.21*10 -2 , and is equal to 2.30*10 -2 for a non-code conforming design. The expected loss of life during a seismic event is perhaps the decision variable that owners and policy makers will be most interested in mitigating. The fatality estimation carried out for the benchmark building provides a methodology for comparing this important value for various building designs, and enables informed decision making during the design process. The expected annual loss associated with fatalities caused by building earthquake damage is estimated by converting the expected annual number of fatalities into economic terms. Assuming the value of a human life is$3.5M, the fatality rate translates to an EAL due to fatalities of $3,500 to$5,600 for the code-conforming designs, and $79,800 for the non-code conforming design. Compared to the EAL due to repair costs of the code-conforming designs, which are on the order of$66,000, the monetary value associated with life loss is small, suggesting that the governing factor in this respect will be the maximum permissible life-safety risk deemed by the public (or its representative government) to be appropriate for buildings. Although the focus of this report is on one specific building, it can be used as a reference for other types of structures. This report is organized in such a way that the individual core chapters (4, 5, and 6) can be read independently. Chapter 1 provides background on the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) approach. Chapter 2 presents the implementation of the PBEE methodology of the PEER framework, as applied to the benchmark building. Chapter 3 sets the stage for the choices of location and basic structural design. The subsequent core chapters focus on the hazard analysis (Chapter 4), the structural analysis (Chapter 5), and the damage and loss analyses (Chapter 6). Although the report is self-contained, readers interested in additional details can find them in the appendices

Toward a Resilient Global Society: Air, Sea Level, Earthquakes, and Weather

Society’s progress along the four corners of prepare, absorb, respond and adapt resilience square is uneven, in spite of our understanding of the foundational science and a growing sense that urgent action is needed. The resilience vignettes describe the meaning and impact of current and near‐term change in four major domains: human health impacts from air pollution, coastal inundation from sea‐level rise, damaging earthquakes in populated areas, and impacts from extreme precipitation. Given our understanding of the scientific principles, societal action, from preparation to adaption, will be critical in minimizing the negative impacts of change. The unprecedented rates of change in today’s Earth system argue for urgent action in support of a resilient global society.Key PointsUnprecedented rates of change in the Earth system argue for more urgent action in support of a resilient global societyExperts describe the meaning and impact of current and near‐term change in four major domainsWe take an ensemble approach to highlight the similarities for actionable decision‐makingPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151889/1/eft2547_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/151889/2/eft2547.pd

Syndromic (phenotypic) diarrhea in early infancy

Syndromic diarrhea (SD), also known as phenotypic diarrhea (PD) or tricho-hepato-enteric syndrome (THE), is a congenital enteropathy presenting with early-onset of severe diarrhea requiring parenteral nutrition (PN). To date, no epidemiological data are available. The estimated prevalence is approximately 1/300,000–400,000 live births in Western Europe. Ethnic origin does not appear to be associated with SD. Infants are born small for gestational age and present with facial dysmorphism including prominent forehead and cheeks, broad nasal root and hypertelorism. Hairs are woolly, easily removed and poorly pigmented. Severe and persistent diarrhea starts within the first 6 months of life (≤ 1 month in most cases) and is accompanied by severe malabsorption leading to early and relentless protein energy malnutrition with failure to thrive. Liver disease affects about half of patients with extensive fibrosis or cirrhosis. There is currently no specific biochemical profile, though a functional T-cell immune deficiency with defective antibody production was reported. Microscopic analysis of the hair show twisted hair (pili torti), aniso- and poilkilotrichosis, and trichorrhexis nodosa. Histopathological analysis of small intestine biopsy shows non-specific villous atrophy with low or no mononuclear cell infiltration of the lamina propria, and no specific histological abnormalities involving the epithelium. The etiology remains unknown. The frequent association of the disorder with parental consanguinity and/or affected siblings suggests a genetic origin with an autosomal recessive mode of transmission. Early management consists of total PN. Some infants have a rather milder phenotype with partial PN dependency or require only enteral feeding. Prognosis of this syndrome is poor, but most patients now survive, and about half of the patients may be weaned from PN at adolescence, but experience failure to thrive and final short stature

Liquefaction and Related Ground Failure from July 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

The 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence produced a 4 July M 6.5 foreshock and a 5 July M 7.1 mainshock, along with 23 events with magnitudes greater than 4.5 in the 24 hr period following the mainshock. The epicenters of the two principal events were located in the Indian Wells Valley, northwest of Searles Valley near the towns of Ridgecrest, Trona, and Argus. We describe observed liquefaction manifestations including sand boils, fissures, and lateral spreading features, as well as proximate non‐ground failure zones that resulted from the sequence. Expanding upon results initially presented in a report of the Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance Association, we synthesize results of field mapping, aerial imagery, and inferences of ground deformations from Synthetic Aperture Radar‐based damage proxy maps (DPMs). We document incidents of liquefaction, settlement, and lateral spreading in the Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake US military base and compare locations of these observations to pre‐ and postevent mapping of liquefaction hazards. We describe liquefaction and ground‐failure features in Trona and Argus, which produced lateral deformations and impacts on several single‐story masonry and wood frame buildings. Detailed maps showing zones with and without ground failure are provided for these towns, along with mapped ground deformations along transects. Finally, we describe incidents of massive liquefaction with related ground failures and proximate areas of similar geologic origin without ground failure in the Searles Lakebed. Observations in this region are consistent with surface change predicted by the DPM. In the same region, geospatial liquefaction hazard maps are effective at identifying broad percentages of land with liquefaction‐related damage. We anticipate that data presented in this article will be useful for future liquefaction susceptibility, triggering, and consequence studies being undertaken as part of the Next Generation Liquefaction project

Liquefaction and Related Ground Failure from July 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

The 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence produced a 4 July M 6.5 foreshock and a 5 July M 7.1 mainshock, along with 23 events with magnitudes greater than 4.5 in the 24 hr period following the mainshock. The epicenters of the two principal events were located in the Indian Wells Valley, northwest of Searles Valley near the towns of Ridgecrest, Trona, and Argus. We describe observed liquefaction manifestations including sand boils, fissures, and lateral spreading features, as well as proximate non‐ground failure zones that resulted from the sequence. Expanding upon results initially presented in a report of the Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance Association, we synthesize results of field mapping, aerial imagery, and inferences of ground deformations from Synthetic Aperture Radar‐based damage proxy maps (DPMs). We document incidents of liquefaction, settlement, and lateral spreading in the Naval Air Weapons Station China Lake US military base and compare locations of these observations to pre‐ and postevent mapping of liquefaction hazards. We describe liquefaction and ground‐failure features in Trona and Argus, which produced lateral deformations and impacts on several single‐story masonry and wood frame buildings. Detailed maps showing zones with and without ground failure are provided for these towns, along with mapped ground deformations along transects. Finally, we describe incidents of massive liquefaction with related ground failures and proximate areas of similar geologic origin without ground failure in the Searles Lakebed. Observations in this region are consistent with surface change predicted by the DPM. In the same region, geospatial liquefaction hazard maps are effective at identifying broad percentages of land with liquefaction‐related damage. We anticipate that data presented in this article will be useful for future liquefaction susceptibility, triggering, and consequence studies being undertaken as part of the Next Generation Liquefaction project

Clinical, Biological and Genetic Analysis of Prepubertal Isolated Ovarian Cyst in 11 Girls

BACKGROUND: The cause of isolated gonadotropin-independent precocious puberty (PP) with an ovarian cyst is unknown in the majority of cases. Here, we describe 11 new cases of peripheral PP and, based on phenotypes observed in mouse models, we tested the hypothesis that mutations in the GNAS1, NR5A1, LHCGR, FSHR, NR5A1, StAR, DMRT4 and NOBOX may be associated with this phenotype. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 11 girls with gonadotropin-independent PP were included in this study. Three girls were seen for a history of prenatal ovarian cyst, 6 girls for breast development, and 2 girls for vaginal bleeding. With one exception, all girls were seen before 8 years of age. In 8 cases, an ovarian cyst was detected, and in one case, suspected. One other case has polycystic ovaries, and the remaining case was referred for vaginal bleeding. Four patients had a familial history of ovarian anomalies and/or infertility. Mutations in the coding sequences of the candidate genes GNAS1, NR5A1, LHCGR, FSHR, NR5A1, StAR, DMRT4 and NOBOX were not observed. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Ovarian PP shows markedly different clinical features from central PP. Our data suggest that mutations in the GNAS1, NR5A1, LHCGR, FSHR StAR, DMRT4 and NOBOX genes are not responsible for ovarian PP. Further research, including the identification of familial cases, is needed to understand the etiology of ovarian PP

Impacting Children’s Physical and Mental Health through Kinesiology Support in Clinical Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial Protocol

Objectives To enhance the confidence of children and adolescents with medical conditions and disabilities to engage in healthy, active lifestyles. Children with medical conditions and disabilities often exhibit more sedentary lifestyles relative to peers and are at increased risk of poor health outcomes. Clinical experience suggests physical activity confidence is an important factor influencing physical activity participation. Methods This randomized controlled trial evaluates an evidence-based intervention targeting physical activity confidence among children and adolescents with medical conditions and disabilities. Potential participants, 8 to 18 years of age diagnosed with a medical condition or disability, will be screened for adequate physical activity motivation but a lack confidence. Consenting participants (n=128) will be randomized 1:1 to a 12-week in-person or virtual physical activity intervention (24 hours/week total) led by a Registered Kinesiologist or control (assessments only). The intervention will combine physical activity participation with education about physical activity knowledge, goal setting, motivation and self-management. Primary outcomes are self-reported physical activity confidence and motivation at baseline, post-intervention and three months following intervention completion. A secondary outcome will be daily physical activity minutes assessed by accelerometry. A repeated measures mixed model will be used to compare outcomes between the in-person intervention, virtual intervention, and control groups (alpha=0.05). Conclusions This trial aims to assess the impact of a novel application of behaviour change theory on physical activity confidence among children and adolescents living with medical conditions or disabilities. Increased physical activity confidence, knowledge and skills could enable these youth to lead a more active lifestyle

A new anisotropy index on trabecular bone radiographic images using the fast Fourier transform

BACKGROUND: The degree of anisotropy (DA) on radiographs is related to bone structure, we present a new index to assess DA. METHODS: In a region of interest from calcaneus radiographs, we applied a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). All the FFT spectra involve the horizontal and vertical components corresponding respectively to longitudinal and transversal trabeculae. By visual inspection, we measured the spreading angles: Dispersion Longitudinal Index (DLI) and Dispersion Transverse Index (DTI) and calculated DA = 180/(DLI+DTI). To test the reliability of DA assessment, we synthesized images simulating radiological projections of periodic structures with elements more or less disoriented. RESULTS: Firstly, we tested synthetic images which comprised a large variety of structures from highly anisotropic structure to the almost isotropic, DA was ranging from 1.3 to 3.8 respectively. The analysis of the FFT spectra was performed by two observers, the Coefficients of Variation were 1.5% and 3.1 % for intra-and inter-observer reproducibility, respectively. In 22 post-menopausal women with osteoporotic fracture cases and 44 age-matched controls, DA values were respectively 1.87 ± 0.15 versus 1.72 ± 0.18 (p = 0.001). From the ROC analysis, the Area Under Curve (AUC) were respectively 0.65, 0.62, 0.64, 0.77 for lumbar spine, femoral neck, total femoral BMD and DA. CONCLUSION: The highest DA values in fracture cases suggest that the structure is more anisotropic in osteoporosis due to preferential deletion of trabeculae in some directions