Structuring expert input for a knowledge-based approach to watershed condition assessment for the Northwest Forest Plan, USA

Assessments of watershed condition for aquatic and riparian species often have to rely on expert opinion because of the complexity of establishing statistical relationships among the many factors involved. Such expert-based assessments can be difficult to document and apply consistently over time and space. We describe and reflect on the process of developing a computer-based decision support application from expert judgments for assessing aquatic and riparian conditions over the 100,000 km2 managed by the US federal government under the Northwest Forest Plan. The decision support system helped structure and document the assessment process and provided consistency and transparency to the evaluation methodology. However, many decisions and trade-offs were required in the expert engagement and model-building processes. Knowledge elicitation in an interactive group had a number of benefits over nominal group or Delphi processes, but efficient knowledge capture required considerable planning and expertise in the subject matter and modeling process. Communicating model results for validation was problematic and only effectively accomplished via in-person workshops. The choice to use different expert groups for each biophysical province provided more opportunities for participation and promoted greater ownership in the assessment, but it also led to increased variation among the resulting model structures. We propose three possible approaches for better managing the consistency of assessment models when multiple expert groups are involved

Decision support systems for forest biodiversity management : a review of tools and an analytical-deliberative framework for understanding their successful application

The complexity of forest management has increased with the scope of resources of concern and the level of scrutiny from stakeholders. The design and use of specialized computer software, often referred to as “decision support systems” (DSS), is one method for helping managers deal with this complexity. DSS have proven helpful in a wide range of fields, including business planning, medical diagnosis, and transportation. In the forestry sector, they have been used intensively for timber supply modeling, but their application to the more diverse and nebulous goals of ecosystem management and sustainable forestry has not been as straightforward. This study investigates the availability and utility of such DSS in relation to questions about forest biodiversity. Part one of this research was based on a written survey of the capabilities of existing decision support systems relevant to forest biodiversity issues (FBDSS). The primary objectives of the survey were to (1) help potential FBDSS users find systems which meet their needs and (2) help FBDSS designers and funders identify unmet needs. Thirty systems met the screening criteria from a pool of over 100 tools generated from previous reviews and other sources. These systems were reviewed against three themes: (1) classes of forest biodiversity indicators used, (2) major forest influences addressed, and (3) abilities to tackle complex political decisions. The results show only one system appears to address the full suite of biodiversity indicator classes based on the Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators. While there are a number of forest modeling tools that evaluate the influences of fire and biological threats on forest ecosystems, these systems do not generally deal with related biodiversity effects, and only one system was found which attempts to integrate the influence of climate change. Very few FBDSS appear to have capabilities explicitly designed to address the often value-based, political nature of forest biodiversity decisions. Part two comprises four in depth case studies on how FBDSS were actually used in different problem solving situations. Participant interviews and available documentation were reviewed using a four-part, qualitative framework. First, participants’ were asked how they judged success of the efforts (success measures) and what factors contributed the most to the outcome (success factors). Contrary to the analytical view of FBDSS, social measures of “stakeholder evaluations” and “contribution to consensus building” were found to be the most popular measures of success. The second part of the framework compared and contrasted the applicability of success factors taken from existing analytical and social theories on these cases. Three analytical factors were drawn from information systems theory (system quality, information quality, and service quality), and four social factors were taken from the environmental assessment literature (participation, communication, translation, and mediation). These factors covered participants’ explanations well and helped reveal additional aspects of the cases not directly expressed. Third, the cases were examined for a “mutual and recursive” pattern of analysis and deliberation. The least successful case also had the most difficulty in realizing this pattern. Fourth, it was hypothesized that participants in less conflicted situations would use fewer social indicators of success, and that as social complexity increased, simpler tools would be more successful. Neither of these expectations were supported by this group of cases. Part three of the study brought together information from the written survey, four in depth case studies, ten more cursory cases, and the literature to construct a framework help practicioners think about the “why, when, what, how, and who” of adoption and use of FBDSS. Important threads through these considerations include the question(s) of interest, the decision context, and the available capacity and time. The social and political uses of FBDSS should be explicitly considered because, as shown in the Part II case studies, these uses can be as important as the more traditionally recognized analytical benefits. A number of authors have suggested guidelines for choosing decision making methods (e.g. computation, expert judgment, stakeholder negotiation, integrated deliberation) best suited to different types of decision contexts. Lack of value agreement on and a dearth of knowledge about biodiversity means that these guidelines will rarely recommend a purely analytical approach. Therefore, I argue that if a DSS is used, it should be explicitly structured to serve the more preferred decision method. Reviewing the cases in this study has also provided some more specific suggestions on DSS use, such as understanding the (not necessarily scientific) information credibility demands of decision makers, the importance of incorporating local information, and how DSS can help structure group work and accumulate results. Finally, further research is suggested in the taxonomy of biodiversity decisions, the ability of DSS to address the more unique aspects of ecosystem management, and ways to gauge compatibility between different analytic and deliberative methods

Northwest Forest Plan The First 15 Years (1994-2008): Watershed Condition Status and Trend

We used two data sets to evaluate stream and watershed condition for sixth-field watersheds in each aquatic province within the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) area: stream data and upslope data. The stream evaluation was based on inchannel data (e.g., substrate, pieces of large wood, water temperature, pool frequency, and macroinvertebrates) we sampled from 2002 to 2009 (193 watersheds) as part of a repeating sample design. We just completed our first round of sampling, so only current condition was calculated for this data set. When condition scores for the inchannel data were grouped into categories, relatively few fell into the low (10 percent) and very low (1 percent) categories. The majority of inchannel attribute scores fell into the moderate (35 percent) and high (41 percent) condition ranges, with relatively few (12 percent) in the very high category. For low-scoring watersheds, water temperature was often the most influential factor. Aquatic invertebrate scores also appeared influential in producing the low scores. An evaluation of upslope and riparian (watershed-wide) conditions for all 1,379 sixth-field watersheds in the NWFP area with significant federal ownership was based on mapped data, including road metrics from U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management geographic information system road layers and vegetation metrics derived from satellite imagery. Watershed-wide condition scores were calculated for 1994 and 2008, and the difference between these scores was used to represent trend. Regarding status, the overall condition scores of the 1,379 watersheds mostly fell into the low (21 percent), moderate (27 percent), high (26 percent), and very high (22 percent) categories; relatively few watersheds scored in the very low (4 percent) category. The majority of watersheds (69 percent) had a positive change in condition scores (trend). Of those with larger positive changes, most were driven by both improvements in road (decommissioning) and vegetation (natural growth) scores. The greatest negative score changes were caused by the Biscuit Fire and other fires along the eastern side of the Cascades. Half of the fire-affected watersheds were in congressional reserves, 35 percent in late-successional reserves, and 15 percent in matrix (lands identified for timber production)

How Well has Land-Use Planning Worked Under Different Governance Regimes? A Case Study in the Portland, OR-Vancouver, WA Metropolitan Area, USA

We examine land use planning outcomes over a 30-year period in the Portland, OR-Vancouver, WA (USA) metropolitan area. The four-county study region enables comparisons between three Oregon counties subject to Oregon’s 1973 Land Use Act (Senate Bill 100) and Clark County, WA which implemented land use planning under Washington’s 1990 Growth Management Act. We describe county-level historical land uses from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s, including low-density residential and urban development, both outside and inside of current urban growth boundaries. We use difference-in-differences models to test whether differences in the proportions of developed land resulting from implementation of urban growth boundaries are statistically significant and whether they vary between Oregon and Washington. Our results suggest that land use planning and urban growth boundaries now mandated both in Oregon and Washington portions of the study area have had a measurable and statistically significant effect in containing development and conserving forest and agricultural lands in the Portland-Vancouver metropolitan area. Our results also suggest, however, that these effects differ across the four study-area counties, likely owing in part to differences in counties’ initial levels of development, distinctly different land use planning histories, and how restrictive their urban growth boundaries were drawn

Differences in genotype and virulence among four multidrug-resistant <i>Streptococcus pneumoniae</i> isolates belonging to the PMEN1 clone

We report on the comparative genomics and characterization of the virulence phenotypes of four &lt;i&gt;S. pneumoniae&lt;/i&gt; strains that belong to the multidrug resistant clone PMEN1 (Spain&lt;sup&gt;23F&lt;/sup&gt; ST81). Strains SV35-T23 and SV36-T3 were recovered in 1996 from the nasopharynx of patients at an AIDS hospice in New York. Strain SV36-T3 expressed capsule type 3 which is unusual for this clone and represents the product of an in vivo capsular switch event. A third PMEN1 isolate - PN4595-T23 - was recovered in 1996 from the nasopharynx of a child attending day care in Portugal, and a fourth strain - ATCC700669 - was originally isolated from a patient with pneumococcal disease in Spain in 1984. We compared the genomes among four PMEN1 strains and 47 previously sequenced pneumococcal isolates for gene possession differences and allelic variations within core genes. In contrast to the 47 strains - representing a variety of clonal types - the four PMEN1 strains grouped closely together, demonstrating high genomic conservation within this lineage relative to the rest of the species. In the four PMEN1 strains allelic and gene possession differences were clustered into 18 genomic regions including the capsule, the blp bacteriocins, erythromycin resistance, the MM1-2008 prophage and multiple cell wall anchored proteins. In spite of their genomic similarity, the high resolution chinchilla model was able to detect variations in virulence properties of the PMEN1 strains highlighting how small genic or allelic variation can lead to significant changes in pathogenicity and making this set of strains ideal for the identification of novel virulence determinant

An Evaluation of 10 Percent and 20 Percent Benzocaine Gels in Patients With Acute Toothaches: Efficacy, Tolerability and Compliance With Label Dose Administration Directions

Background The authors evaluated the efficacy and tolerability of 10 percent and 20 percent benzocaine gels compared with those of a vehicle (placebo) gel for the temporary relief of toothache pain. They also assessed the compliance with the label dose administration directions on the part of participants with toothache pain. Methods Under double-masked conditions, 576 participants self-applied study gel to an open tooth cavity and surrounding oral tissues. Participants evaluated their pain intensity and pain relief for 120 minutes. The authors determined the amount of gel the participants applied. Results The responders’ rates (the primary efficacy parameter), defined as the percentage of participants who had an improvement in pain intensity as exhibited by a pain score reduction of at least one unit on the dental pain scale from baseline for two consecutive assessments any time between the five- and 20-minute points, were 87.3 percent, 80.7 percent and 70.4 percent, respectively, for 20 percent benzocaine gel, 10 percent benzocaine gel and vehicle gel. Both benzocaine gels were significantly (P ≤ .05) better than vehicle gel; the 20 percent benzocaine gel also was significantly (P ≤ .05) better than the 10 percent benzocaine gel. The mean amount of gel applied was 235.6 milligrams, with 88.2 percent of participants applying 400 mg or less. Conclusions Both 10 percent and 20 percent benzocaine gels were more efficacious than the vehicle gel, and the 20 percent benzocaine gel was more efficacious than the 10 percent benzocaine gel. All treatments were well tolerated by participants. Practical Implications Patients can use 10 percent and 20 percent benzocaine gels to temporarily treat toothache pain safely

Quantifying white matter hyperintensity and brain volumes in heterogeneous clinical and low-field portable MRI

Brain atrophy and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) are critical neuroimaging features for ascertaining brain injury in cerebrovascular disease and multiple sclerosis. Automated segmentation and quantification is desirable but existing methods require high-resolution MRI with good signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). This precludes application to clinical and low-field portable MRI (pMRI) scans, thus hampering large-scale tracking of atrophy and WMH progression, especially in underserved areas where pMRI has huge potential. Here we present a method that segments white matter hyperintensity and 36 brain regions from scans of any resolution and contrast (including pMRI) without retraining. We show results on eight public datasets and on a private dataset with paired high- and low-field scans (3T and 64mT), where we attain strong correlation between the WMH ($\rho$=.85) and hippocampal volumes (r=.89) estimated at both fields. Our method is publicly available as part of FreeSurfer, at: http://surfer.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/fswiki/WMH-SynthSeg

Social media and protest mobilization: evidence from the Tunisian revolution

This article explores how social media acted as a catalyst for protest mobilization during the Tunisian revolution in late 2010 and early 2011. Using evidence from protests we argue that social media acted as an important resource for popular mobilization against the Ben Ali regime. Drawing on insights from “resource mobilization theory”, we show that social media (1) allowed a “digital elite” to break the national media blackout through brokering information for mainstream media; (2) provided a basis for intergroup collaboration for a large “cycle of protest”; (3) reported event magnitudes that raised the perception of success for potential free riders, and (4) provided additional “emotional mobilization” through depicting the worst atrocities associated with the regime’s response to the protests. These findings are based on background talks with Tunisian bloggers and digital activists and a revealed preference survey conducted among a sample of Tunisian internet users (February–May 2012)

Measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum above 4×10184{\times}10^{18} eV using inclined events detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

A measurement of the cosmic-ray spectrum for energies exceeding $4{\times}10^{18}$ eV is presented, which is based on the analysis of showers with zenith angles greater than $60^{\circ}$ detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. The measured spectrum confirms a flux suppression at the highest energies. Above $5.3{\times}10^{18}$ eV, the "ankle", the flux can be described by a power law $E^{-\gamma}$ with index $\gamma=2.70 \pm 0.02 \,\text{(stat)} \pm 0.1\,\text{(sys)}$ followed by a smooth suppression region. For the energy ($E_\text{s}$) at which the spectral flux has fallen to one-half of its extrapolated value in the absence of suppression, we find $E_\text{s}=(5.12\pm0.25\,\text{(stat)}^{+1.0}_{-1.2}\,\text{(sys)}){\times}10^{19}$ eV.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO