Money in monetary policy design: monetary cross-checking in the New-Keynesian model

In the New-Keynesian model, optimal interest rate policy under uncertainty is formulated without reference to monetary aggregates as long as certain standard assumptions on the distributions of unobservables are satisfied. The model has been criticized for failing to explain common trends in money growth and inflation, and that therefore money should be used as a cross-check in policy formulation (see Lucas (2007)). We show that the New-Keynesian model can explain such trends if one allows for the possibility of persistent central bank misperceptions. Such misperceptions motivate the search for policies that include additional robustness checks. In earlier work, we proposed an interest rate rule that is near-optimal in normal times but includes a cross-check with monetary information. In case of unusual monetary trends, interest rates are adjusted. In this paper, we show in detail how to derive the appropriate magnitude of the interest rate adjustment following a significant cross-check with monetary information, when the New-Keynesian model is the central bank’s preferred model. The cross-check is shown to be effective in offsetting persistent deviations of inflation due to central bank misperceptions. Keywords: Monetary Policy, New-Keynesian Model, Money, Quantity Theory, European Central Bank, Policy Under Uncertaint

Predicting protein decomposition: the case of aspartic-acid racemization kinetics

The increase in proportion of the non-biological (D-) isomer of aspartic acid (Asp) relative to the L- isomer has been widely used in archaeology and geochemistry as a tool for dating. The method has proved controversial, particularly when used for bones. The non-linear kinetics of Asp racemization have prompted a number of suggestions as to the underlying mechanism(s) and have led to the use of mathe- matical transformations which linearize the increase in D-Asp with respect to time. Using one example, a suggestion that the initial rapid phase of Asp racemization is due to a contribution from asparagine (Asn), we demonstrate how a simple model of the degradation and racemization of Asn can be used to predict the observed kinetics. A more complex model of peptide bound Asx (Asn+Asp) racemization, which occurs via the formation of a cyclic succinimide (Asu), can be used to correctly predict Asx racemi- zation kinetics in proteins at high temperatures (95-140 °C). The model fails to predict racemization kinetics in dentine collagen at 37 °C. The reason for this is that Asu formation is highly conformation dependent and is predicted to occur extremely slowly in triple helical collagen. As conformation strongly in£uences the rate of Asu formation and hence Asx racemization, the use of extrapolation from high temperatures to estimate racemization kinetics of Asx in proteins below their denaturation temperature is called into question. In the case of archaeological bone, we argue that the D:L ratio of Asx re£ects the proportion of non- helical to helical collagen, overlain by the e¡ects of leaching of more soluble (and conformationally unconstrained) peptides. Thus, racemization kinetics in bone are potentially unpredictable, and the proposed use of Asx racemization to estimate the extent of DNA depurination in archaeological bones is challenged