Advancing climate services for the European renewable energy sector through capacity building and user engagement

The development of successful climate services faces a number of challenges, including the identification of the target audience and their needs and requirements, and the effective communication of complex climate information, through engagement with a range of stakeholders. This paper describes how these challenges were tackled during the European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) project, part of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), in order to deliver a pre-operational, proof-of-concept climate service for the European renewable energy sector. The process of iterative user engagement adopted in ECEM is described, from the initial presentation of the team's first vision for such a service to support external stakeholders, through to evaluation of the final interactive tool for visualisation, data download and supporting documentation (the C3S ECEM Demonstrator). The outcomes of this evaluation are outlined, together with a retrospective reflection on the engagement and development process. The extent to which co-production and co-design were achieved in practice is assessed. The paper also highlights the distance travelled from the start to end of ECEM in terms of building capacity, developing a community of practice, and raising the Technology Readiness Level. The relevance of ECEM for the European climate services market is briefly considered, including the development of downstream commercial services which build upon the public C3S services.European Commission | Ref. 2015/C3S_441_Lot2_UE

Perturbing a Weather Generator using change factors derived from Regional Climate Model simulations

The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for perturbing Weather Generators (WGs) for future decades and to assess its effectiveness. Here the procedure is applied to the WG implemented within the UKCP09 package and assessed using data from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulation which provides a significant "climate change" between a control run period and a distant future. The WG is normally calibrated on observed data. For this study, data from an RCM control period (1961-1990) was used, then perturbed using the procedure. Because only monthly differences between the RCM control and scenario periods are used to perturb the WG, the direct daily RCM scenario may be considered as unseen data to assess how well the perturbation procedure reproduces the direct RCM simulations for the future

Representing Climate and Extreme Weather Events in Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Existing Methods and Options for Development

The lack of information about future changes in extreme weather is a major constraint of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of climate change. The generation of descriptions of future climate in current IAMs is assessed.We also review recent work on scenario development methods for weather extremes, focusing on those issues which are most relevant to the needs of IAMs. Finally, some options for implementing scenarios of weather extremes in IAMs are considered

UK extreme rainfall estimation based on weather pattern approach

International audienc

Climate scenarios and decision making under uncertainty

Climate scenarios provide an essential foundation for research on the impacts of climate change on the built environment and for the identification of appropriate adaptation measures. They are, however, subject to uncertainties in the underlying greenhouse gas emissions and concentration scenarios as well as a range of scientific uncertainties associated with climate modelling and the natural variability of climate. These uncertainties provide a major motive for the current move towards probabilistic climate scenarios a move which is also supported from the decision-making perspective. Examples of probabilistic scenarios constructed for variables and UK locations of interest for built environment research are presented here. The need to consider other uncertainties potentially important sub-grid scale processes such as the urban heat island effect and the influence of natural variability in non-stationary series of weather extremes is demonstrated. Consideration is also given to aspects of decision making under uncertainty focusing on the timing of upgrade of the Thames tidal defences and the extent to which managers integrate climate change information into long-term projects in the built environment. A major recommendation from the case-study examples presented here is the need for improved communication between climate scenario developers, and scenario users and decision makers in the built environment sector