Comparison of the WRF and HARMONIE models ability for mountain wave warnings

Mountain lee waves usually involve aircraft icing and turbulence events. These weather phenomena, in turn, are a threat to aviation safety. For this reason, mountain lee waves are an interesting subject of study for the scientific community. This paper analyses several mountain lee waves events in the south-east of the Guadarrama mountain range, near the Adolfo Suarez Madrid-Barajas airport (Spain), using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and the HARMONIE-AROME high-resolution numerical models. For this work, simulated brightness temperature from the optimum WRF parametrization schemes and from the HARMONIE are validated using satellite observations to evaluate the performance of the models in reproducing the lenticular clouds associated to mountain lee waves. The brightness temperature probability density shows interesting differences between both models. Following, a mountain wave characterization is performed simulating some atmospheric variables (wind direction, wind speed, atmospheric stability, liquid water content and temperature) in several grid points located in the leeward, windward and over the summit of the mountains. The characterization results are compared for both numerical models and a decision tree is developed for each to forecast and warn the mountain lee waves, lenticular clouds and icing events with a 24 to 48 h lead time. These warnings are validated using several skill scores, revealing similar results for both models

The European Solar Telescope

The European Solar Telescope (EST) is a project aimed at studying the magnetic connectivity of the solar atmosphere, from the deep photosphere to the upper chromosphere. Its design combines the knowledge and expertise gathered by the European solar physics community during the construction and operation of state-of-the-art solar telescopes operating in visible and near-infrared wavelengths: the Swedish 1m Solar Telescope, the German Vacuum Tower Telescope and GREGOR, the French Télescope Héliographique pour l'Étude du Magnétisme et des Instabilités Solaires, and the Dutch Open Telescope. With its 4.2 m primary mirror and an open configuration, EST will become the most powerful European ground-based facility to study the Sun in the coming decades in the visible and near-infrared bands. EST uses the most innovative technological advances: the first adaptive secondary mirror ever used in a solar telescope, a complex multi-conjugate adaptive optics with deformable mirrors that form part of the optical design in a natural way, a polarimetrically compensated telescope design that eliminates the complex temporal variation and wavelength dependence of the telescope Mueller matrix, and an instrument suite containing several (etalon-based) tunable imaging spectropolarimeters and several integral field unit spectropolarimeters. This publication summarises some fundamental science questions that can be addressed with the telescope, together with a complete description of its major subsystems

Prediction of long-term outcomes of HIV-infected patients developing non-AIDS events using a multistate approach

Outcomes of people living with HIV (PLWH) developing non-AIDS events (NAEs) remain poorly defined. We aimed to classify NAEs according to severity, and to describe clinical outcomes and prognostic factors after NAE occurrence using data from CoRIS, a large Spanish HIV cohort from 2004 to 2013. Prospective multicenter cohort study. Using a multistate approach we estimated 3 transition probabilities: from alive and NAE-free to alive and NAE-experienced ("NAE development"); from alive and NAE-experienced to death ("Death after NAE"); and from alive and NAE-free to death ("Death without NAE"). We analyzed the effect of different covariates, including demographic, immunologic and virologic data, on death or NAE development, based on estimates of hazard ratios (HR). We focused on the transition "Death after NAE". 8,789 PLWH were followed-up until death, cohort censoring or loss to follow-up. 792 first incident NAEs occurred in 9.01% PLWH (incidence rate 28.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 26.80-30.84, per 1000 patient-years). 112 (14.14%) NAE-experienced PLWH and 240 (2.73%) NAE-free PLWH died. Adjusted HR for the transition "Death after NAE" was 12.1 (95%CI, 4.90-29.89). There was a graded increase in the adjusted HRs for mortality according to NAE severity category: HR (95%CI), 4.02 (2.45-6.57) for intermediate-severity; and 9.85 (5.45-17.81) for serious NAEs compared to low-severity NAEs. Male sex (HR 2.04; 95% CI, 1.11-3.84), ag