Bridging the short-term and long-term dynamics of economic structural change

In the short-term, economies shift preferentially into new activities that are related to ones they currently do. Such a tendency should have implications for the nature of an economy's long-term development as well. We explore these implications using a dynamical network model of an economy's movement into new activities. First, we theoretically derive a pair of coordinates that summarize long-term structural change. One coordinate captures overall ability across activities, the other captures an economy's composition. Second, we show empirically how these two measures intuitively summarize a variety of facts of long-term economic development. Third, we observe that our measures resemble complexity metrics, though our route to these metrics differs significantly from previous ones. In total, our framework represents a dynamical approach that bridges short- and long-term descriptions of structural change, and suggests how different branches of economic complexity analysis could potentially fit together in one framework.Comment: 11 pages + 21 pages supplementary text, 10 figure

An information-theoretic approach to the analysis of location and colocation patterns

The study of location and colocation of economic activities lies at the heart of economic geography and related disciplines, but the indices used to quantify these patterns are often defined ad hoc and lack a clear statistical foundation. We propose a statistical framework to quantify location and colocation associations of economic activities using information-theoretic measures. We relate the resulting measures to existing measures of revealed comparative advantage, localization, specialization, and coagglomeration and show how different measures derive from the same general framework. To support the use of these measures in hypothesis testing and statistical inference, we develop a Bayesian estimation approach to provide measures of uncertainty and statistical significance of the estimated quantities. We illustrate this framework in an application to an analysis of location and colocation patterns of occupations in US cities

Unveiling relationships between crime and property in England and Wales via density scale-adjusted metrics and network tools

Scale-adjusted metrics (SAMs) are a significant achievement of the urban scaling hypothesis. SAMs remove the inherent biases of per capita measures computed in the absence of isometric allometries. However, this approach is limited to urban areas, while a large portion of the world’s population still lives outside cities and rural areas dominate land use worldwide. Here, we extend the concept of SAMs to population density scale-adjusted metrics (DSAMs) to reveal relationships among different types of crime and property metrics. Our approach allows all human environments to be considered, avoids problems in the definition of urban areas, and accounts for the heterogeneity of population distributions within urban regions. By combining DSAMs, cross-correlation, and complex network analysis, we find that crime and property types have intricate and hierarchically organized relationships leading to some striking conclusions. Drugs and burglary had uncorrelated DSAMs and, to the extent property transaction values are indicators of affluence, twelve out of fourteen crime metrics showed no evidence of specifically targeting affluence. Burglary and robbery were the most connected in our network analysis and the modular structures suggest an alternative to "zero-tolerance" policies by unveiling the crime and/or property types most likely to affect each other