A hybrid multi-criteria decision-making approach to order natural gas consuming countries

Societies worldwide are committed to moving towards a low carbon economy, and natural gas is considered a transition fuel between fossil (such as gasoline and diesel) and renewable fuels. Based on the relevance of natural gas in this economic transition, this paper demonstrates the application of a hybrid multi-criteria decision-making approach to order the natural gas consuming countries. The aim is to support decision-making in the natural gas market, offering elements to prioritize the trade worldwide. The study observed three criteria: consumption variation for years 2014 to 2016; the volume of production in the same period; and proven natural gas reserves in 2016. The data to demonstrate the countries’ performance was obtained from a yearly statistic publication of the Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Biofuels (ANP), released in 2017. Finally, the decision-making methods adopted to assess the criteria were, first, the WINGS method, applied to generate the weights of each criterion. Second, the study adopted the TOPSIS method to pre-select the countries closest to becoming a global consumer of natural gas. After applying the TOPSIS method, a pre-analysis of dominance among alternatives (pre-selected countries) was conducted, excluding the dominated ones from the list obtained. Third, the PROMÉTHÉE II method was applied to establish the order of the natural gas-consuming countries

MARKETING DE INFORMAÇÕES PARA O VAREJO: O MÉTODO ZAPROS-LM

Este artigo mostra, através de um caso real, como o uso de um método formal de apoio à tomada de decisão pode tornar mais efetiva a administração de marketing para o varejo. A organização objeto do estudo foi numa entidade tradicional da cidade do Rio de Janeiro, que atua como um grande banco de dados do varejo, utilizado por empresas comerciais da região. Utilizou-se aqui o método ZAPROS-LM, da Análise Verbal de Decisões. Os resultados globais deste estudo mostram que a adoção de tal método pode enriquecer significativamente o processo de administração em marketing de uma organização que armazena e dissemina informações do setor de varejo

Project portfolio prioritization strategy to extend the service life of offshore platforms – a Prométhée V approach

This study puts forward the implementation of Multi-Criteria Decision Aid, through the PROMÉTHÉE V method, to support a decision on prioritizing a modification project portfolio on offshore oil and gas platforms. The chosen method supports, in a structured manner, the prioritization of a project portfolio which is necessary to leverage the oil production in offshore facilities, especially when they have already surpassed the plateau phase and presents production decline. Although the most relevant issues for investors are related to return on investments and the risks involved, the study suggests that other criteria are considered in specific settings. The research used data from 12 main projects of an oil and gas company and the criteria evaluations were made based on documents retrieved from the organization's database. This implementation represents a very important improvement for a well-known problem, in which the result is found based on criteria and their respective weights selected through a consensus. The results reinforce that any organization, with a constraint similar to the one presented in this study, may obtain relevant gains with the use of methods that clearly reflect the decision process and its criteria, assisting the decision maker's job significantly

Robustness analysis in a TODIM-based multicriteria evaluation model of rental properties

A new robustness analysis framework is proposed where robustness of a solution in a decision aiding process is measured as the distance from that solution to an expected outcome, chosen by the decision-aiding analyst. The framework is explained by the application of the TODIM method of multicriteria decision aiding to the problem of predicting rental ranges for properties in a Chilean city. Therefore, the robustness concern concentrates on changes in criteria weights as well as in trade-off rates, as they are defined in the method. Two main contributions are introduced: a local robustness measure, defined in terms of a distance among rankings; and a global robustness measure, as an adaptation of the minimax-regret rule to select a global robust solution, i.e. a ranking produced by TODIM

A fuzzy system to stimulate the planting of beans in Brazil

Beans are traditional elements on the table of the Brazilian population. In spite of this, the production of beans has been falling in Brazil in the last years. This article tries to identify the causes for the lack of motivation for growing beans in Brazil. It also aims to point out which factors are the most relevant for obtaining an expressive plantation and bean harvest. Given this, we were able to develop a system based on fuzzy logic that can be useful for measuring the expected loss until the bean harvest. With the output from such system the farmer can be provided incentives to start planting once that loss is considered acceptable.  In order to generate the rules of the system the multicriteria TOPSIS method is used. The prototype fuzzy system explained and proposed in this article can be further expanded by agricultural experts thus leading to a large scale planting of beans

MARKETING PARA O VAREJO: O MÉTODO ZAPROS-LM

Este artigo mostra, através de um caso real, como o uso de um método formal de apoio à tomada de decisão pode tornar mais eficiente a administração de marketing para o varejo. A organização, objeto do estudo, é numa entidade tradicional da cidade do Rio de Janeiro, fundada em 1955, que atua como um grande banco de dados utilizado por empresas comerciais da região. É utilizado o método ZAPROSLM da Análise Verbal de Decisões e os resultados globais deste estudo mostram que a adoção de tal método enriquece significativamente o processo de administração na área de marketing de uma organização do setor varejista

A dematel-topsis-wings approach to the classification of multimarket investment funds

This paper analyzes the performance of 20 multimarket investment funds in the Brazilian market from May/2015 to April/2017 in order to categorize them into 4 performance levels. The cumulative rate and the funds' volatility are calculated in 2 periods among the total periods studied, in order to generate a mutual degree of influence among the funds of each group. Next, the WINGS method is applied. This method splits each group into 2 subgroups, generating the 4 levels of classification. The use of the methodology classified 5 funds in each subgroup. The data analysis compared the obtained classification with the classification established by the cumulative rate of the funds throughout the entire period and presented 4 ways to prioritize the decision for the funds ranked higher. These 4 ways of prioritizing the decision aim at assisting investors with different points of view

A Eficiência da Gestão Estratégica no Brasil: O Caso do Sistema Bancário

This article examines the efficiency of the 50 largest financial conglomerates in the Brazilian retail banking system by total volume of assets, among those with at least 50 branches in the country, based on figures from their published annual reports for 2004. After providing a brief historical background, we use data envelopment analysis (DEA) together with the I-O stepwise technique for variable selection. We introduce into the analysis the creation and simulation of artificial or unobserved productive units (artificial decision making units). At the end we analyze the financial institutions according to the results presented by the nonparametric DEA method, using the artificial DMUs, to observe the units considered as efficient and the variables that the inefficient units need to work on to improve their performance.Este artigo tem como objetivo a análise de eficiência dos 50 maiores conglomerados financeiros do mercado bancário de varejo brasileiro, de acordo com seu volume de ativos totais, com uma quantidade mínima de 50 agências localizadas no território nacional, com referência aos balanços patrimoniais publicados no ano de 2004. Após breve histórico, utiliza-se a metodologia da Análise Envoltória de Dados (DEA), em conjunto com a técnica de I-O Stepwise para seleção de variáveis. Introduz-se na análise a criação e a simulação de unidades produtivas artificiais ou não observadas (DMU Artificiais). Ao final, efetua-se uma análise das instituições financeiras, de acordo com os resultados apresentados pelo método não-paramétrico da DEA, utilizando DMU Artificiais, com o intuito de observarmos as unidades consideradas eficientes e quais as variáveis que as unidades ineficientes precisam atuar para melhorar sua performance

Port capacity expansion under real options approach: a case study in Brazil

Investments in port container terminals are sensitive to uncertainties. Public investments in infrastructure have been significantly reduced in the last decade in developing countries. The Brazilian government infrastructure investment was only 1.85 % of GDP in 2019, representing the lowest level in the last fifty years. Nonetheless, the regulatory framework of the port sector in Brazil has undergone significant changes over time, increasing the number of private port container terminal leases. The expansion capacity of the private port facilities is strongly linked to the demand uncertainty, which impacts the financial return to the long run. In this scenario, the uncertainty of global cargo transportation can discourage infrastructure investments in this class of project in Brazil. To overcome these issues, the financial modelling applying real options approach is better suited than the traditional valuation methods based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis. The present study aims to value flexibilities of anticipating, or postponing, or interrupting investments of an existing operational port terminal in Brazil with expansion capacity under the demand uncertainty. The financial decision to invest in a port expansion is modeled by an American option. The results demonstrate that the investor adds significant value to the project by having the possibility to postpone investments. The proposed model presents the contribution of optimizing the decision of sequential expansions of capacity in port terminals, at any time and according to scenarios' revelation. In addition, the model allows the government authorities to review lease contracts, considering the relevance of timing to invest in project expansion decisions. The proposed model can also be extended to other infrastructure projects in emerging economies

Ballast water management: technology choice comparing TODIM and THOR 2

This paper approaches the problem of ballast water treatment in ships. This has been identified as one of the four greatest threats to the world’s oceans. Solutions that have been considered for solving the problem are alternative water treatment technologies. In the case study reported in this paper three major water treatment technologies have been evaluated with the help of twenty-six criteria, quantitative as well as qualitative by using two discrete multicriteria methods, TODIM and THOR 2. The THOR 2 consists of the axiomatic evolution of the THOR method and both THOR 2 and THOR are made available through the THOR Web platform. Five groups of evaluation criteria are then considered: practicality; biological effectiveness; cost/benefit ratio; time frame for the implementation of standards; and environmental impact of the process' sub-products. In this paper a case study on choosing a ballast water treatment technology is presented. Three alternative ballast water management technologies are proposed by experts in the field and are evaluated with the help of twenty-six criteria, quantitative as well as qualitative. Each ballast water management method is described by a list of twenty-six attributes or criteria. After setting the problem in a clear way and consulting different experts, the two separate applications of both TODIM and THOR 2 are performed. What is denoted as Management Method #1 is indeed chosen as the best alternative according to both methods. The conclusion is that those two methods, although conceptually and analytically quite different, lead essentially to the same main results.  Two other applications of both TODIM and THOR have indeed confirmed the convergence of results in spite of the conceptual and technical differences between the two methods. This suggests that formulating a decision problem in a correct, clear-cut way can be at least as important as the technical characteristics of the method per se