Monetary Policy in a Currency Union with National Price Asymmetries

We investigate the importance of the behaviour of the monetary authority for the dynamics of a currency union where cross-country asymmetries are not necessarily reflected in differences in economic size. We construct a stylised two-country general equilibrium model with sticky-prices to serve as laboratory for studying the operating characteristics of Taylor-type interest rate rules. We consider that the two countries in the union are different in terms of the price-setting practices of firms, and inspect the implications of alternative policy rules for the dynamics of the economy. The experiments carried out show, in general, that the way shocks propagate in the monetary union is linked to the systematic behaviour of the monetary authority. The reaction of the central bank to economic developments is important both at the union level and at the country level, namely to explain cross-country differences in economic behaviour. On the other hand, in our model the policy that stabilizes inflation is not necessarily the same that makes the output in the union less volatile. Also, the policy that reduces aggregate volatility does not necessarily imply the same for each country individually.

The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area

Building on the New Area Wide Model, we develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions belonging to the euro area and between euro area regions and the world economy. Simulation analysis shows the transmission mechanism of region-specific or common shocks, originating in the euro area and abroad.

The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area

Building on the New Area Wide Model, we develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and GLobal Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions belonging to the euro area and between euro area regions and the world economy. Simulation analysis shows the transmission mechanism of region-specific or common shocks, originating in the euro area and abroad.Open-economy macroeconomics, DSGE models, econometric models, policy analysis

Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model

The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether fiscal policies can alleviate the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates and if they should be coordinated internationally. The analysis is carried out using EAGLE, a DSGE model of the global economy. We consider that the fiscal shocks are temporary and that fiscal policy retains full credibility at all times. In this setup we find significant non-linearities in a ZLB situation that amplify the effects of fiscal shocks compared to the non-ZLB case. International coordination is helpful but does not play a major role in the results. JEL Classification: E40, E62, E63, F42DSGE Models, Fiscal Moultipliers, monetary policy, zero lower bound

Structural reforms and macroeconomic performance in the euro area countries: a model-based assessment

We quantitatively assess the macroeconomic effects of country-specific supply-side reforms in the euro area by simulating EAGLE, a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. We consider reforms in the labor and services markets of Germany (or, alternatively, Portugal) and the rest of the euro area. Our main results are as follows. First, there are benefits from implementing unilateral structural reforms. A reduction of markup by 15 percentage points in the German (Portuguese) labor and services market would induce an increase in the long-run German (Portuguese) output equal to 8.8 (7.8) percent. As reforms are implemented gradually over a period of five years, output would smoothly reach its new long-run level in seven years. Second, cross-country coordination of reforms would add extra benefits to each region in the euro area, by limiting the deterioration of relative prices and purchasing power that a country faces when implementing reforms unilaterally. This is true in particular for a small and open economy such as Portugal. Specifically, in the long run German output would increase by 9.2 percent, Portuguese output by 8.6 percent. Third, cross-country coordination would make the macroeconomic performance of the different regions belonging to the euro area more homogeneous, both in terms of price competitiveness and real activity. Overall, our results suggest that reforms implemented apart by each country in the euro area produce positive effects, cross-country coordination produces larger and more evenly distributed (positive) effects. JEL Classification: C53, E52, F47competition, dynamic general equilibrium modeling, Economic policy, Markups, monetary policy, structural reforms

ASPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW ANTI-LEISHMANIA DRUGS: FROM CONTROL OF NEGLECTED INFECTIONS TO PARASITE-HOST INTERACTIONS AND DRUG-RESISTANT PARASITES

Leishmaniasis is a neglected disease caused by parasites of the genus Leishmania. The disease leads to different clinical manifestations determined by parasite features like heterogeneity in the virulence of distinct species-zymodemes and host parameters such as genetic characteristics and immunological status./nVisceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the most severe disease form and is potentially fatal if untreated. Drugs in use against VL present several drawbacks including high toxicity, relevant contraindications and complicated administration regimens. In addition, 90% of world´s VL cases are concentrated in poorest locations like the Indian sub-continent where a number of factors contribute to an ineffective disease control including access to medicines and its relatively expensive price and the development of resistant Leishmania strains, not only to the classical antimonials drugs but also to miltefosine, the only oral drug available./nTherefore, the development of new drugs against VL is urgent and must have in consideration several aspects in order to achieve and be effective to most of the disease cases. Indeed, treatment outcomes vary substantially between different geographic regions and depend on the drug(s) used, drug exposure, severity of disease, host immunity, and the presence of coinfections.  /nSo, in order to improve the drug discovery process for anti-leishmanials the drug screening should involve recent clinical isolates of the L. donovani complex, with different susceptibility profiles to existing drugs and from different geographical origin./nBoth synthetic and natural product libraries might be screened, but evaluation of drugs already in use by developing new formulations or even drug repurposing might also contribute to a faster identification of new candidates. Additional short-term approaches might be combinatory therapies, some of which have proven to be useful mainly in coinfections with HIV./nOther important issue is the establishment of standard techniques for the selection of ’hit compounds‘  and the criteria established by the Global Health Innovative Technology  Fund represent an interesting approach: a given hit should present a 50% effective concentration (EC50 value) lower than 10?M against intracellular amastigotes of Leishmania sp. and for the in vivo model of VL (i.e. mouse or hamster infected with L. infantum or L. donovani), treatment schemes should result in 70% reduction of liver parasite load after up to 5 doses of 50mg/kg, orally, one or two times a day./nIn the last decades, technology advances have allowed the establishment of High-throughput screening (HTS), a potential efficient way of identifying active compounds able to eliminate the parasite without affecting the host. However, the lack of central database capable of concentrating positive and negative results from different research groups and compounds tested also contributes to delaying the identification of potential candidates against Leishmania protozoa. Also by applying bioinformatic tools such as a systematic in silico chemogenomics strategy in combination with the classical approach, its expected to identify new antiparasitic compounds that will be available for application in the pharmaceutical industry and further research lines./nA relevant portion of drug prospection for neglected diseases relies on academic and research institution but dealing with diseases of such relevance worldwide must require the incorporation of Government and private funding for basic and clinical research projects through direct investments and incentives to both academia and the private sector.Leishmaniasis is a neglected disease caused by parasites of the genus Leishmania. The disease leads to different clinical manifestations determined by parasite features like heterogeneity in the virulence of distinct species-zymodemes and host parameters such as genetic characteristics and immunological status./nVisceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the most severe disease form and is potentially fatal if untreated. Drugs in use against VL present several drawbacks including high toxicity, relevant contraindications and complicated administration regimens. In addition, 90% of world´s VL cases are concentrated in poorest locations like the Indian sub-continent where a number of factors contribute to an ineffective disease control including access to medicines and its relatively expensive price and the development of resistant Leishmania strains, not only to the classical antimonials drugs but also to miltefosine, the only oral drug available./nTherefore, the development of new drugs against VL is urgent and must have in consideration several aspects in order to achieve and be effective to most of the disease cases. Indeed, treatment outcomes vary substantially between different geographic regions and depend on the drug(s) used, drug exposure, severity of disease, host immunity, and the presence of coinfections.  /nSo, in order to improve the drug discovery process for anti-leishmanials the drug screening should involve recent clinical isolates of the L. donovani complex, with different susceptibility profiles to existing drugs and from different geographical origin./nBoth synthetic and natural product libraries might be screened, but evaluation of drugs already in use by developing new formulations or even drug repurposing might also contribute to a faster identification of new candidates. Additional short-term approaches might be combinatory therapies, some of which have proven to be useful mainly in coinfections with HIV./nOther important issue is the establishment of standard techniques for the selection of ’hit compounds‘  and the criteria established by the Global Health Innovative Technology  Fund represent an interesting approach: a given hit should present a 50% effective concentration (EC50 value) lower than 10?M against intracellular amastigotes of Leishmania sp. and for the in vivo model of VL (i.e. mouse or hamster infected with L. infantum or L. donovani), treatment schemes should result in 70% reduction of liver parasite load after up to 5 doses of 50mg/kg, orally, one or two times a day./nIn the last decades, technology advances have allowed the establishment of High-throughput screening (HTS), a potential efficient way of identifying active compounds able to eliminate the parasite without affecting the host. However, the lack of central database capable of concentrating positive and negative results from different research groups and compounds tested also contributes to delaying the identification of potential candidates against Leishmania protozoa. Also by applying bioinformatic tools such as a systematic in silico chemogenomics strategy in combination with the classical approach, its expected to identify new antiparasitic compounds that will be available for application in the pharmaceutical industry and further research lines./nA relevant portion of drug prospection for neglected diseases relies on academic and research institution but dealing with diseases of such relevance worldwide must require the incorporation of Government and private funding for basic and clinical research projects through direct investments and incentives to both academia and the private sector

Structural reforms and macroeconomic performance in the euro area countries: a model-based assessment

We quantitatively assess the macroeconomic effects of country-specific supply-side reforms in the euro area by simulating EAGLE, a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model. We consider reforms in the labor and services markets of Germany (or, alternatively, Portugal) and the rest of the euro area. Our main results are as follows. First, a unilateral markup reduction by 15 percentage points in the German (Portuguese) labor and services market would induce an increase in the long-run German (Portuguese) output equal to 8.8 (7.8) percent. Second, cross-country coordination of reforms would add extra benefits to each region, by limiting the deterioration of relative prices and purchasing power that a country faces when implementing reforms unilaterally. In the long run German (Portuguese) output would increase by 9.2 (8.6) percent. Third, cross-country coordination would make the macroeconomic performance of the different regions more homogeneous, in terms of price competitiveness and real activity. Overall, our results suggest that while reforms implemented individually by each country in the euro area will produce positive effects, cross-country coordination produces larger and more evenly distributed (positive) effects.economic policy, structural reforms, dynamic general equilibrium modeling, competition, markups.

Real-time measurement of ocular wavefront aberrations in symptomatic subjects

Te purpose of this work was to study the real-time changes of the optical properties of the eye with accommodation in subjects with symptoms of accommodative disorders. From ocular aberrations, it is possible to compute several parameters like the response and lag of accommodation. Te ocular aberrations were measured in 4 subjects, with diferent accommodative disorders, during several cycles of accommodation/disaccommodation and for diferent accommodative stimuli. Te measurement was done continuously and in real time during diferent accommodative stimuli. It was possible to see the changes in accommodative response during the several stimuli of accommodation. Subjects with accommodative disorders showed diferent accommodative responses. Te use of wavefront ocular aberrations can be a tool to diagnose accommodative disorders. In some subjects with complaints, this method showed irregularities even when the results of the usual clinical exams were normal.This work was supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) in the framework of the Strategic Funding UID/FIS/04650/2013.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Housing market dynamics: Any news?

This paper explores the link between agent expectations and housing market dynamics. We focus on shifts in the fundamental driving forces of the economy that are anticipated by rational forward-looking agents, i.e. news shocks. Using Bayesian methods and U.S. data, we find that news-shock-driven-cycles account for a sizable fraction of the variability in house prices and other macroeconomic variables over the business cycle and have also contributed to run-ups in house prices over the last three decades. By exploring the link between news shocks and agent expectations, we show that house price growth was positively related to inflation expectations during the boom of the late 1970’s but negatively related to interest rate expectations during the mid-2000’s housing boom