GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve in terms of real economic activity. In this paper we use data for a variety of E.U. countries: both EMU (Germany, France, Italy) and non-EMU members (Sweden and the U.K.). The data used range from 1991:Q1 to 2009:Q1. For each country, we extract the long run trend and the cyclical component of real economic activity, while the corresponding interbank interest rates of long and short term maturities are used for the calculation of the country specific yield spreads. We also augment the models tested with non monetary policy variables: the countries’ unemployment rates and stock indices. The methodology employed in the effort to forecast real output, is a probit model of the inverse cumulative distribution function of the standard distribution, using several formal forecasting and goodness of fit evaluation tests. The results show that the yield curve augmented with the non-monetary variables has significant forecasting power in terms of real economic activity but the results differ qualitatively between the individual economies examined raising non-trivial policy implications.GDP; Probit; Forecasting; Yield Curve

Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?

In this paper we examine the predictability power of long term risk premium over Housing prices in U.S.A. of a period of 19 years (1991-2009). For reasons that are cited clearly in the text, the interest rate risk premium is preferred over yield curve. Under a probit framework, it is tested whether recent housing pricing bust could have been predicted. We employ adaptive expectations for the formation of the agents’ short-term interest rate expectations. The ability to forecast such price changes is of great importance to investors and analysts of the housing market and for the design of financial institutions’ mortgage policy in a more prudential path.Housing prices; risk premium; probit; forecasting

Predicting European Union recessions in the euro era: The yield curve as a forecasting tool of economic activity

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve, ie: the difference between long and short term bond rates, in terms of real economic activity, for the U.S. and various European countries. In this paper we use data from the European Union (EU15), ranging from 1994:Q1 to 2008:Q3. The seasonally adjusted real GDP is used to extract the long run trend and the cyclical component of the European output, while the European Central Bank’s euro area government benchmark bonds of various maturities are used for the calculation of the yield spreads. We also augment the models tested with non monetary policy variables: the unemployment and a composite European stock price index constructed from the indices of the three major European stock markets of London, Frankfurt and Paris. The methodology employed in the effort to forecast recessions, is a probit model of the inverse cumulative distribution function of the standard distribution, using several formal forecasting evaluation tests. The results show that the yield curve augmented with the composite stock index has significant forecasting power in terms of the EU15 real output.forecasting, yield spread, recession, probit, term structure, monetary policy, real growth

Indispensable or not? Greek female teachers in South Albania in the interwar period (1918-1940)

This paper is focused on the operation of the Greek minority education in South Albania in the inter-war period, located mostly on teachers’ work. Also, it examines the conditions under which women served there. It aims to present some indicative examples in order to light a historical situation and to reveal a problem: a considerable imbalance in numbers between the two sexes in the teaching profession. An approach to this contradiction is attempted, shedding some light on the organisational structure of Greek education and the reasons for which this organisation needed gender. It focuses on the structural discrimination against women, aiming at the presentation of the organizational aspects for female teachers. The topic is approached through analyses of economic, social and structural conditions as well as of ideological matters on education. The research is based upon unpublished material held in the Archives of the Bishopric of Ioannina (henceforth: ABI), North-west Greece, where was based the responsible body for the Greek schools in South Albania during the period 1918-1940. Aim of this paper is not just to remain in a descriptive level, but to provide an analytic approach through the structural organisation of education and the gender issue it involved.This paper is focused on the operation of the Greek minority education in South Albania in the inter-war period, located mostly on teachers’ work. Also, it examines the conditions under which women served there. It aims to present some indicative examples in order to light a historical situation and to reveal a problem: a considerable imbalance in numbers between the two sexes in the teaching profession. An approach to this contradiction is attempted, shedding some light on the organisational structure of Greek education and the reasons for which this organisation needed gender. It focuses on the structural discrimination against women, aiming at the presentation of the organizational aspects for female teachers. The topic is approached through analyses of economic, social and structural conditions as well as of ideological matters on education. The research is based upon unpublished material held in the Archives of the Bishopric of Ioannina (henceforth: ABI), North-west Greece, where was based the responsible body for the Greek schools in South Albania during the period 1918-1940. Aim of this paper is not just to remain in a descriptive level, but to provide an analytic approach through the structural organisation of education and the gender issue it involved

Indispensable or not? Greek female teachers in South Albania in the interwar period (1918-1940)

This paper is focused on the operation of the Greek minority education in South Albania in the inter-war period, located mostly on teachers’ work. Also, it examines the conditions under which women served there. It aims to present some indicative examples in order to light a historical situation and to reveal a problem: a considerable imbalance in numbers between the two sexes in the teaching profession. An approach to this contradiction is attempted, shedding some light on the organisational structure of Greek education and the reasons for which this organisation needed gender. It focuses on the structural discrimination against women, aiming at the presentation of the organizational aspects for female teachers. The topic is approached through analyses of economic, social and structural conditions as well as of ideological matters on education. The research is based upon unpublished material held in the Archives of the Bishopric of Ioannina (henceforth: ABI), North-west Greece, where was based the responsible body for the Greek schools in South Albania during the period 1918-1940. Aim of this paper is not just to remain in a descriptive level, but to provide an analytic approach through the structural organisation of education and the gender issue it involved.This paper is focused on the operation of the Greek minority education in South Albania in the inter-war period, located mostly on teachers’ work. Also, it examines the conditions under which women served there. It aims to present some indicative examples in order to light a historical situation and to reveal a problem: a considerable imbalance in numbers between the two sexes in the teaching profession. An approach to this contradiction is attempted, shedding some light on the organisational structure of Greek education and the reasons for which this organisation needed gender. It focuses on the structural discrimination against women, aiming at the presentation of the organizational aspects for female teachers. The topic is approached through analyses of economic, social and structural conditions as well as of ideological matters on education. The research is based upon unpublished material held in the Archives of the Bishopric of Ioannina (henceforth: ABI), North-west Greece, where was based the responsible body for the Greek schools in South Albania during the period 1918-1940. Aim of this paper is not just to remain in a descriptive level, but to provide an analytic approach through the structural organisation of education and the gender issue it involved

Episodic Nonlinearity in Leading Global Currencies

We perform non-linearity tests using daily data for leading currencies that include the Australian dollar, British pound, Brazilian real, Canadian dollar, euro, Japanese yen, Mexican peso, and the Swiss franc to resolve the issue of whether these currencies are driven by fundamentals or exogenous shocks to the global economy. In particular, we use a new method of testing for linear and nonlinear lead/lag relationships between time series, introduced by Brooks and Hinich (1999), based on the concepts of cross-correlation and cross-bicorrelation. Our evidence points to a relatively rare episodic nonlinearity within and across foreign exchange rates. We also test the validity of specifying ARCH-type error structures for foreign exchange rates. In doing so, we estimate Bollerslevs (1986) general- ized ARCH (GARCH) model and Nelsons (1988) exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model,using a variety of error densities [including the normal, the Student-t distribution, and the Generalized Error Distribution (GED)] and a comprehensive set of diagnostic checks. We apply the Brooks and Hinich (1999) nonlinearity test to the standardized residuals of the optimal GARCH/EGARCH model for each exchange rate series and show that the nonlinearity in the exchange rates is not due to ARCH-type e¤ects. This result has important implications for the interpretation of the recent voluminous literature which attempts to model fi nancial asset returns using this family of models.Global nancial markets; Currencies; Episodic nonlinearity; Conditional heteroskedasticity.

Aπό τη Μακιαβελική Διερμηνεία κατά την Ανάκριση Αιχμαλώτων στην Κοινοτική Διερμηνεία της Νεωτερικότητας.

 Το παρόν άρθρο εξετάζει την Κοινοτική Διερμηνεία υπό το πρίσμα των αιτιωδών σχέσεων που την παρήγαγαν. Συγκεκριμένα, ανατρέχει στην διαμόρφωση του διανοητικού και φιλοσοφικού πλαισίου που οδήγησε στην αναγνώριση της ανάγκης των αλλοδαπών για επικοινωνία. Το γεγονός ότι σεπρογενέστερες φάσεις της κοινωνικής και διανοητικής εξέλιξης, μία από τις ελάχιστες χρήσεις της διερμηνείας ήταν η ανάκριση αιχμαλώτων, ήτοι η χρήση του γλωσσικού διαμεσολαβητή για αποκόμιση πληροφοριών χρήσιμων για το κράτος, σημαίνει ότι το διανοητικό εργαλείο της γλωσσικής διαμεσολάβησης χρησιμοποιείται επ’ ωφελεία του κράτους. Από το σημείο της μακιαβελικής αυτής αντίληψης μέχρι την παροχή γλωσσικής διαμεσολάβησης με σκοπό την πληροφόρηση του πολίτη (έστω και αλλόγλωσσου), η απόσταση είναι μεγάλη. Διανύθηκε τότε μόνον, όταν οι κοινωνικές συνθήκες ανέδειξαν το σεβασμό στην ετερότητα σε μείζον ζήτημα. Σ’ αυτό το βήμα προόδου σαφώς και συνετέλεσε ο Διαφωτισμός και η νεωτερικότητα, όπως και τα φιλοσοφικά ρεύματα αυτών των περιόδων. Τελικώς, αυτό που τονίζεται στο παρόν είναι η Εγελιανή αντίληψη και η συμβολή της στην ανάπτυξη της Κοινοτικής Διερμηνείας