Recurrence risk of venous thromboembolism associated with systemic lupus erythematosus:A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Recurrence risk of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)‐associated venous thromboembolism (VTE) is unclear. AIM: To determine the recurrence risk of SLE‐associated VTE overall and by presence of provoking factors and SLE flares. METHODS: A multicenter, retrospective cohort study was conducted among patients with first SLE‐associated VTE who discontinued anticoagulation. SLE flares were defined as Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index 2000 greater than 4. The primary outcome was recurrent VTE. Incidence rates and cumulative incidences were calculated by presence of provoking factors and antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) at index VTE. The hazard ratio (HR) for recurrence after SLE flare–associated index VTE was estimated with Cox regression, adjusted for provoking factor presence and APS. RESULTS: Eighty patients were included with 21 recurrent VTEs in median 8 years. For provoked index VTE, the recurrence rate in patients without APS was 1.1 per 100 person‐years (PY; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.1–3.1) and in the presence of APS 3.5 per 100 PY (95% CI, 0.9–8.9), yielding cumulative incidences of 7.5% (95% CI, 1.2%–21.7%) and 31.4% (95% CI, 6.3%–61.6%) respectively. For unprovoked index VTE, these analogous rates were 3.8 per 100 PY (95% CI, 1.2–9.0) and 16.7 per 100 PY (95% CI, 4.5–42.7), with cumulative incidences of 33.7% (95% CI, 10.7%–58.9%) and 54.2% (95% CI, 10.7%–84.5%), respectively. Forty‐six index VTEs were flare associated, and the adjusted HR for recurrence was 0.4 (95% CI, 0.1–1.8) compared to those without flares at their index VTE. CONCLUSION: Antiphospholipid syndrome is the main determinant for recurrence risk of SLE‐associated VTE irrespective of presence of a provoking factor. Future research should attempt to confirm that flare‐associated VTE has a lower recurrence risk

Paternal inflammatory arthritis is associated with a higher risk of miscarriage:results of a large multicentre study (iFAME-Fertility)

OBJECTIVES: Paternal preconception health is recognized as an important contributor to pregnancy outcomes. Nonetheless, pregnancy outcomes of partners of men with inflammatory arthritis (IA) have never been studied. Our objective was to describe the pregnancy outcomes of partners of men diagnosed with IA.METHODS: We performed a multicentre cross-sectional retrospective study conducted in the Netherlands. Men with IA who were over 40 years old that reported at least one positive pregnancy test were included. To analyse the impact of IA on pregnancy outcomes, pregnancies were classified into two groups: pregnancies conceived after the diagnosis of IA and before the diagnosis of IA.RESULTS: In total, 408 male participants diagnosed with IA reported 897 singleton pregnancies that resulted in 794 live births. Pregnancies conceived after the diagnosis of IA had higher rate of miscarriage (12.27 vs 7.53%, P = &lt;0.05). This increased risk was still present after adjusting for confounders [OR 2.03 (95% CI 1.12, 3.69) P = 0.015].CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest study to describe the pregnancy outcomes of partners of men diagnosed with IA and the first to demonstrate that paternal IA is associated with a higher risk of miscarriage. Notwithstanding, the overall rate of miscarriage reported in our study could be comparable to previously reported population estimates.</p

New risk model is able to identify patients with a low risk of progression in systemic sclerosis

Objectives To develop a prediction model to guide annual assessment of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients tailored in accordance to disease activity.Methods A machine learning approach was used to develop a model that can identify patients without disease progression. SSc patients included in the prospective Leiden SSc cohort and fulfilling the ACR/EULAR 2013 criteria were included. Disease progression was defined as progression in ≥1 organ system, and/or start of immunosuppression or death. Using elastic-net-regularisation, and including 90 independent clinical variables (100% complete), we trained the model on 75% and validated it on 25% of the patients, optimising on negative predictive value (NPV) to minimise the likelihood of missing progression. Probability cutoffs were identified for low and high risk for disease progression by expert assessment.Results Of the 492 SSc patients (follow-up range: 2–10 years), disease progression during follow-up was observed in 52% (median time 4.9 years). Performance of the model in the test set showed an AUC-ROC of 0.66. Probability score cutoffs were defined: low risk for disease progression (&lt;0.197, NPV:1.0; 29% of patients), intermediate risk (0.197–0.223, NPV:0.82; 27%) and high risk (&gt;0.223, NPV:0.78; 44%). The relevant variables for the model were: previous use of cyclophosphamide or corticosteroids, start with immunosuppressive drugs, previous gastrointestinal progression, previous cardiovascular event, pulmonary arterial hypertension, modified Rodnan Skin Score, creatine kinase and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide.Conclusion Our machine-learning-assisted model for progression enabled us to classify 29% of SSc patients as ‘low risk’. In this group, annual assessment programmes could be less extensive than indicated by international guidelines

Comparison between low disease activity or das remission as treatment target in patients with early active rheumatoid arthritis

Objectives To compare outcomes of targeted treatment aimed at either low disease activity or remission in patients with early active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Methods Five-year outcomes were compared in 133 patients with early active RA (1987), starting with methotrexate, sulfasalazine and tapered high dose of prednisone (arm 3 of the BehandelStrategieën (Treatment Strategies for Rheumatoid Arthritis) (BeSt) study), targeted at Disease Activity Score (DAS) ≤2.4 (low disease activity), and 175 patients with early RA, starting methotrexate and tapered high dose of prednisone, targeted at DAS <1.6 (selected from IMPROVED study who would have fulfilled inclusion criteria of the BeSt study). Association of treatment target with outcomes DAS <1.6, Boolean remission at year 1 and drug-free DAS remission (DFR) at year 5 were analysed by logistic regression analysis. Results At baseline, DAS <1.6 steered patients had a milder disease than DAS ≤2.4 steered patients (mean DAS 4.1±SD 0.7vs4.4±0.9, p=0.012) and less radiological damage. DAS decrease, functional ability and radiological damage progression over time were similar in both patient groups. DAS ≤2.4 was achieved in similar percentages in both patient groups, but more DAS <1.6 steered patients achieved DAS <1.6 and DFR. DAS <1.6 steered treatment was associated with achieving DAS <1.6 (OR 3.04 (95% CI 1.64 to 5.62)) and Boolean remission (3.03 (1.45 to 6.33)) at year 1 and DFR at year 5 (3.77 (1.51 to 9.43)). Conclusions In patients with early active RA who start with comparable disease-modifying antirheumatic drug+prednisone combination therapy, subsequent DAS <1.6 steered treatment is associated with similar clinical and radiological outcomes over time as DAS ≤2.4 steered treatment; however, in the DAS <1.6 steered group, more patients achieved remission and drug-free remission

Additional file 1: of Baseline autoantibody profile in rheumatoid arthritis is associated with early treatment response but not long-term outcomes

Figure S1. Agreement between previously determined antibody status and remeasurement by ELISA. Figure S2. Overlap of isotypes and antibodies at baseline. Figure S3. DAS over first year of treatment. Figure S4. Initial change in DAS and DFR outcomes within patients positive for individual antibodies. Figure S5. Association between baseline autoantibody profile and long-term sustained drug-free remission within patients that reached early remission and had outcome data available. (DOCX 1605 kb

Impaired fertility in men diagnosed with inflammatory arthritis: Results of a large multicentre study (iFAME-Fertility)

Objectives The impact of inflammatory arthritis (IA) on male fertility remains unexplored. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of IA on several male fertility outcomes; fertility rate (number of biological children per man), family planning, childlessness and fertility problems. Methods We performed a multicentre cross-sectional study (iFAME-Fertility). Men with IA 40 years or older who indicated that their family size was complete were invited to participate. Participants completed a questionnaire that included demographic, medical and fertility-related questions. To analyse the impact of IA on fertility rate, patients were divided into groups according to the age at the time of their diagnosis: ≤30 years (before the peak of reproductive age), between 31 and 40 years (during the peak) and ≥41 years (after the peak). Results In total 628 participants diagnosed with IA were included. Men diagnosed ≤30 years had a lower mean number of children (1.32 (SD 1.14)) than men diagnosed between 31 and 40 years (1.60 (SD 1.35)) and men diagnosed ≥41 years (1.88 (SD 1.14)).This was statistically significant (p=0.0004).The percentages of men diagnosed ≤30 and 31-40 years who were involuntary childless (12.03% vs 10.34% vs 3.98%, p=0.001) and who reported having received medical evaluations for fertility problems (20.61%, 20.69% and 11.36%, p=0.027) were statistically significant higher than men diagnosed ≥41 years. Conclusions This is the first study that shows that IA can impair male fertility. Men diagnosed with IA before and during the peak of reproductive age had a lower fertility rate, higher childlessness rate and more fertility problems. Increased awareness and more research into the causes behind this association are urgently needed

Wells Rule and D-Dimer Testing to Rule Out Pulmonary Embolism A Systematic Review and Individual-Patient Data Meta-analysis

Background: The performance of different diagnostic strategies for pulmonary embolism (PE) in patient subgroups is unclear. Purpose: To evaluate and compare the efficiency and safety of the Wells rule with fixed or age-adjusted D-dimer testing overall and in inpatients and persons with cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, previous venous thromboembolism, delayed presentation, and age 75 years or older. Data Sources: MEDLINE and EMBASE from 1 January 1988 to 13 February 2016. Study Selection: 6 prospective studies in which the diagnostic management of PE was guided by the dichotomized Wells rule and quantitative D-dimer testing. Data Extraction: Individual data of 7268 patients; risk of bias assessed by 2 investigators with the QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2) tool. Data Synthesis: The proportion of patients in whom imaging could be withheld based on a "PE-unlikely" Wells score and a negative D-dimer test result (efficiency) was estimated using fixed (50 years) D-dimer thresholds; their 3-month incidence of symptomatic venous thromboembolism (failure rate) was also estimated. Overall, efficiency increased from 28% to 33% when the age-adjusted (instead of the fixed) D-dimer threshold was applied. This increase was more prominent in elderly patients (12%) but less so in inpatients (2.6%). The failure rate of age-adjusted D-dimer testing was less than 3% in all examined subgroups. Limitation: Post hoc analysis, between-study differences in patient characteristics, use of various D-dimer assays, and limited statistical power to assess failure rate. Conclusion: Age-adjusted D-dimer testing is associated with a 5% absolute increase in the proportion of patients with suspected PE in whom imaging can be safely withheld compared with fixed D-dimer testing. This strategy seems safe across different high-risk subgroups, but its efficiency varies

Development and validation of an early warning model for hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a multi-center retrospective cohort study

Background : Timely identification of deteriorating COVID-19 patients is needed to guide changes in clinical management and admission to intensive care units (ICUs). There is significant concern that widely used Early warning scores (EWSs) underestimate illness severity in COVID-19 patients and therefore, we developed an early warning model specifically for COVID-19 patients. Methods : We retrospectively collected electronic medical record data to extract predictors and used these to fit a random forest model. To simulate the situation in which the model would have been developed after the first and implemented during the second COVID-19 `wave' in the Netherlands, we performed a temporal validation by splitting all included patients into groups admitted before and after August 1, 2020. Furthermore, we propose a method for dynamic model updating to retain model performance over time. We evaluated model discrimination and calibration, performed a decision curve analysis, and quantified the importance of predictors using SHapley Additive exPlanations values. Results : We included 3514 COVID-19 patient admissions from six Dutch hospitals between February 2020 and May 2021, and included a total of 18 predictors for model fitting. The model showed a higher discriminative performance in terms of partial area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.82 [0.80-0.84]) compared to the National early warning score (0.72 [0.69-0.74]) and the Modified early warning score (0.67 [0.65-0.69]), a greater net benefit over a range of clinically relevant model thresholds, and relatively good calibration (intercept = 0.03 [- 0.09 to 0.14], slope = 0.79 [0.73-0.86]). Conclusions : This study shows the potential benefit of moving from early warning models for the general inpatient population to models for specific patient groups. Further (independent) validation of the model is needed