334 research outputs found
Civil War from a Transnational Perspective
Civil war is the dominant form of armed conflict in the contemporary international system, and most severe lethal armed conflicts in the post-Cold War era have been civil rather than interstate. Still, it would misleading to see these conflicts as purely domestic, as many contemporary civil wars such as Syria display clear transnational characteristics, including inspirations from events in other countries, links to actors in other countries, as well as often international interventions. Moreover, civil wars often have important implications for other states, including security concerns and economic impacts. This chapter reviews the growth and core findings in the literature focusing on the transnational dimensions of civil war. I focus in particular on how factors outside a particular state can influence the risk of conflict within states as well as some of the central consequences of domestic conflict for other states or relations between states. I conclude that this line of research has helped expand our understanding of both civil conflict and interstate war, and that a comparative focus on varieties conflict and attention to the possible transnational dimensions of civil war deserve a prominent role in future research
Rich-club vs rich-multipolarization phenomena in weighted networks
Large scale hierarchies characterize complex networks in different domains.
Elements at their top, usually the most central or influential, may show
multipolarization or tend to club forming tightly interconnected communities.
The rich-club phenomenon quantified this tendency based on unweighted network
representations. Here, we define this metric for weighted networks and discuss
the appropriate normalization which preserves nodes' strengths and discounts
structural strength-strength correlations if present. We find that in some real
networks the results given by the weighted rich-club coefficient can be in
sharp contrast to the ones in the unweighted approach. We also discuss that the
scanning of the weighted subgraphs formed by the high-strength hubs is able to
unveil features contrary to the average: the formation of local alliances in
rich-multipolarized environments, or a lack of cohesion even in the presence of
rich-club ordering. Beyond structure, this analysis matters for understanding
correctly functionalities and dynamical processes relying on hub
interconnectedness.Comment: 12 pages, 2 figure
Ulikhet, eksklusjon og borgerkrig [Inequality, Exclusion, and Civil War]
Much of the recent research on civil war treats explanations rooted in political and economic grievances with considerable suspicion and claims that there is little empirical evidence of any relationship between ethnicity or inequality and political violence. We argue that common indicators used in previous research fail to capture fundamental aspects of political exclusion and economic inequality that can motivate conflict. Through a statistical analysis of all civil wars since 1960, we show that our theoretically informed indicators of political discrimination and economic marginalization among ethnic groups are powerful predictors of civil war onset. Individual-based inequality indicators, in contrast, display only weak effects. This article in Norwegian is a revised and updated version of earlier work published in English
Winner of the 2016 Lewis Fry Richardson Award, Paul Collier: Clarity and Compassion in the Study of Civil War
The award committee has chosen Paul Collier as the winner of the 2016 Lewis Fry Richardson Award in particular in recognition of his contributions to the study of civil war. His famous paper on "Greed and grievance in civil war" - published with Anke Hoeffler in 2004, but circulating in draft form since the late 1990s - has been cited over 1000 times in the Web of Science as of mid-July 2016, and has over 5000 citations in Google Scholar. The jury also highlighted the key role of Collier's work reviving academic research on civil war in the late 1990s, the broader impact of the World Bank group led by Collier in spurring advances in the field as well as stimulating important data collection efforts, as well as his central role in popularizing insights of academic research to a broader audience
Ornithology and varieties of conflict: A personal retrospective on conflict forecasting
This note provides a retrospective on lessons learned in research on conflict forecasting, motivated by reflections around the retirement of Professor Michael D. Ward from Duke University. I argue that an excessive focus on “black swans” or surprising events that are hard to forecast detracts from considering the more frequent “white swans” or regularities in conflict. It is often more useful to focus on modal conflicts than exceptions, and substantial progress has been made in recent research. I identify some key lessons learned and highlight the need for researchers to distinguish between features that are more or less difficult to forecast
Fitness-dependent topological properties of the World Trade Web
Among the proposed network models, the hidden variable (or good get richer)
one is particularly interesting, even if an explicit empirical test of its
hypotheses has not yet been performed on a real network. Here we provide the
first empirical test of this mechanism on the world trade web, the network
defined by the trade relationships between world countries. We find that the
power-law distributed gross domestic product can be successfully identified
with the hidden variable (or fitness) determining the topology of the world
trade web: all previously studied properties up to third-order correlation
structure (degree distribution, degree correlations and hierarchy) are found to
be in excellent agreement with the predictions of the model. The choice of the
connection probability is such that all realizations of the network with the
same degree sequence are equiprobable.Comment: 4 Pages, 4 Figures. Final version accepted for publication on
Physical Review Letter
Patterns of link reciprocity in directed networks
We address the problem of link reciprocity, the non-random presence of two
mutual links between pairs of vertices. We propose a new measure of reciprocity
that allows the ordering of networks according to their actual degree of
correlation between mutual links. We find that real networks are always either
correlated or anticorrelated, and that networks of the same type (economic,
social, cellular, financial, ecological, etc.) display similar values of the
reciprocity. The observed patterns are not reproduced by current models. This
leads us to introduce a more general framework where mutual links occur with a
conditional connection probability. In some of the studied networks we discuss
the form of the conditional connection probability and the size dependence of
the reciprocity.Comment: Final version accepted for publication on Physical Review Letter
Words and Deeds: From Incompatibilities to Outcomes in Anti-Government Disputes
Dissidents can choose among different tactics to redress political grievances, yet violent and nonviolent mobilization tend to be studied in isolation. We examine why some countries see the emergence of organized dissident activity over governmental claims, and why in some cases these organizational claims result in civil wars or nonviolent campaigns, while others see no large-scale collective action. We develop a two-stage theoretical framework examining the organized articulation of political grievance and then large-scale violent and nonviolent collective action. We test implications of this framework using new data on governmental incompatibilities in a random sample of 101 states from 1960- 2012. We show that factors such as demography, economic development and civil society have differential effects on these different stages and outcomes of mobilization. We demonstrate that the common finding that anocracies are more prone to civil war primarily stems from such regimes being more prone to see maximalist political demands that could lead to violent mobilization, depending on other factors conducive to creating focused military capacity We find that non-democracy generally promotes nonviolent campaigns as anocracies and autocracies are both more likely to experience claims and more prone to nonviolent campaigns, conditional on claims
Clustering in Complex Directed Networks
Many empirical networks display an inherent tendency to cluster, i.e. to form
circles of connected nodes. This feature is typically measured by the
clustering coefficient (CC). The CC, originally introduced for binary,
undirected graphs, has been recently generalized to weighted, undirected
networks. Here we extend the CC to the case of (binary and weighted) directed
networks and we compute its expected value for random graphs. We distinguish
between CCs that count all directed triangles in the graph (independently of
the direction of their edges) and CCs that only consider particular types of
directed triangles (e.g., cycles). The main concepts are illustrated by
employing empirical data on world-trade flows
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