Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 235:Off-the-record target zones: theory with an application to Hong Kong’s Currency Board

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band

Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 228:A soft edge target zone model: theory and application to Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003,the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005

A soft edge target zone model: Theory and application to Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005.currency board arrangement; target zone model; credibility; Hong Kong

Feline primary erythrocytosis: a multicentre case series of 18 cats

A retrospective multicentre case series of feline primary erythrocytosis (PE) was evaluated. The aim was to gain better understanding of disease presentation and progression to guide management and prognostication. Case records were assessed for evidence of increased packed cell volume (PCV; >48%), sufficient investigation to rule out relative and secondary erythrocytosis, and follow-up data for at least 12 months or until death. Eighteen cats were included in the case series. No significant trends in signalment were noted. Seizures and mentation changes were the most common presenting signs (both n = 10). Median PCV was 70% (median total protein concentration of 76 g/l) with no other consistent haematological changes. Sixteen cats survived to discharge. Phlebotomy was performed initially in 15/16 surviving animals and performed after discharge in 10/16. Hydroxyurea was the most common adjunctive therapy, used in 10/16 cats. Of the 16 patients surviving to discharge, 14 patients were still alive at the conclusion of the study (survival time >17 months post-discharge), with the two non-survivors having lived for 5 years or more after diagnosis. PCV, when stabilised, did not correlate with resolution of clinical signs

Paris Climate Agreement passes the cost-benefit test

The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consistently incorporate a damage-cost curve reproducing the observed relation between temperature and economic growth into the integrated assessment model DICE. We thus provide an inter-temporally optimizing cost-benefit analysis of this century’s climate problem. We account for uncertainties regarding the damage curve, climate sensitivity, socioeconomic future, and mitigation costs. The resulting optimal temperature is robust as can be understood from the generic temperature-dependence of the mitigation costs and the level of damages inferred from the observed temperature-growth relationship. Our results show that the politically motivated Paris Climate Agreement also represents the economically favourable pathway, if carried out properly