Asset Price Dynamics in a Financial Market with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies and Time Delays

In this paper we present a continuous time dynamical model of heterogeneous agents interacting in a financial market where transactions are cleared by a market maker. The market is composed of fundamentalist, trend following and contrarian agents who process information from the market with different time delays. Each class of investor is characterized by path dependent risk aversion. We also allow for the possibility of evolutionary switching between trend following and contrarian strategies. We find that the system shows periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics as well as synchronization between technical traders. Furthermore, the model is able to generate time series of returns that exhibit statistical properties similar to those of the S&P500 index, which is characterized by excess kurtosis, volatility clustering and long memoryComment: 14 pages, 5 figure

Chaos in the tourism industry

The paper presents an application of the chaos theory to tourism, a sector in which operators' choices are particularly elaborate and complex. The dynamics of the tourist industry are, in fact, the result of close interactions between units of production, tourist flows, local authorities and natural resources. These interactions do not necessarily lead to a regular trend in the development of the tourist industry as proposed by Butler; on the contrary, irregularities of various types are very possible. The model microfounds rigorously on both the demand and the supply side. Firms and tourists operate under the hypothesis of limited rationality, the former in an oligopolistic context, the latter on the basis of mechanisms of evolutionary selection. Although not exhaustive, the model forms a theoretical platform that can be easily adapted to hypotheses and situations that differ from those originally hypothesized. As a consequence, this paper presents a series of numerical simulations. The results show the chaotic nature of a tourist flow, which limits the practicability of measures introduced to stabilise the system. In their place, measures are needed that stimulate a continuous reshaping of the system in relation to the factors that tend to change it.sustainable tourism; chaos; evolutionary games; Butler's cycle

The Credibility of the Exchange Rate Regime: An Analysis trough “Derivatives” of the September 1992 Crisis

This paper argues that, in the September 1992 European currency crisis, market trends in derivatives, in terms of price volatility and change in volumes traded, might have represented an early indicator, in reference to the spot market, of the lack of confidence in the ability of the Italian Lira and the Sterling Pound to maintain their parities within the ERM. The assessment is made by comparing the daily data on Italian/English interbank rates with the implicit yield on short-term interest rate futures and with a maximum compatible with the ERM band created by means of German interbank rates and changes in the exchange ratesDerivatives; Exchange rates; Volatility

Asset Price Dynamics in a Financial Market with Heterogeneous Trading Strategies and Time Delays

In this paper we present a continuous time dynamical model of heterogeneous agents interacting in a financial market where transactions are cleared by a market maker. The market is composed of fundamentalist, trend following and contrarian agents who process information from the market with different time delays. Each class of investors is characterized by path dependent risk aversion. We also allow for the possibility of evolutionary switching between trend following and contrarian strategies. We find that the system shows periodic, quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics as well as synchronization between technical traders. Furthermore, the model is able to generate time series of returns that exhibit statistical properties similar to those of the S&P500 index, which is characterized by excess kurtosis, volatility clustering and long memory.Dynamic asset pricing; Heterogeneous agents; Complex dynamics; Strange attractors; Chaos; Intermittency; Stock market dynamics; Synchronization

The evolutionary dynamics of tolerance

This paper incorporates the phenomenon of tolerance, as the ability to accept diversity, into an economic analysis showing how different aptitudes to trust and cooperation can affect economic outcomes. In the economic system we propose, tolerance is associated with the different weight that agents attribute to their own nature and to the institutional parameters in their utility function. We thus construct a model of overlapping generations, showing that the incentives that influence descendants’ predisposition to tolerance depend on both institutional factors, where behaviour is imposed by rules, and on social (or cultural) factors, found in popular customs and established traditions. Our study highlights the absolute impossibility of affirming tolerance through formal rules. In fact, intolerance is a persistent attitude and its control is only possible through constant and continuous interventions on the educational processes of new generations (intolerance trap).Tolerance; Evolutionary dynamics; Imperfect empathy

International Technology Gap and Technology Transmission: The Policy Implications

Income per capita differences have increased dramatically over the last fifty years. Many economists seem to recognize knowledge differences as the main factor in this worldwide economic performance divergence. Developing countries suffer significantly from lagging labour productivity and managerial efficiency related in part to the failure to adopt the latest technology or to update their labour force, and such an evidence has recently led to a huge debate about which channel is most effective in stimulating technology transfer and acquisition. In this paper we will review the policy tools that have been effective in reducing the international knowledge-gap between Developed and Developing countries, and the role played by institutional factors in accomplishing such an issue.J.e.l. codes: F4, K2, O2, O3 Economia Politica is covered by Social Sciences Citation Index, Social Scisearch, Journal Citation Reports/Social Sciences Edition (Thomson Reuters – ISI Web of Know ledge); Econlit/Journal of Economic Literature (AEA); Elsevier’s Abstracting & Indexing database – SCOPUS ISI Journal Citation Reports® Ranking 2009 Economics: 98/245. Impact Factor: 0,91

Il finanziamento degli investimenti in R&S. Gli effetti sulla crescita e sulla struttura finanziaria

The financing of innovation impacts on economic growth. What’s, among bank-based or market-based system, the best organizational form? The paper supports the view that both forms have to be merged into a unique approach (law and finance view) embracing not only the overall quality of the financial services' supply (financial services view) but also the related legal aspects. In particular, the paper agrees with the thesis that the financial structure of the economy emerges endogenously depending both on the firms’ R&D investment choices and on their initial wealth level. The paper presents also an empirical validation of the financial services and, more specifically, of the law and finance view, carried out over the period 1980-2008. A focus is dedicated to the Chinese case, which shows strong economic growth and increasingly efficient financial sector, in despite of the weakness of the legal system.R&D investment, finance and growth, financial system and institutions

THE FINANCING OF R&D INVESTMENTS: EFFECTS ON GROWTH AND FINANCIAL STRUCTURE

The financing of innovation impacts on economic growth. What’s, among bank-based or market-based system, the best organizational form? The paper supports the view that both forms have to be merged into a unique approach (law and finance view) embracing not only the overall quality of the financial services’ supply (financial services view) but also the related legal aspects. In particular, the paper agrees with the thesis that the financial structure of the economy emerges endogenously depending both on the firms’ R&D investment choices and on their initial wealth level. The paper presents also an empirical validation of the financial services and, more specifically, of the law and finance view, carried out over the period 1980-2008. A focus is dedicated to the Chinese case, which shows strong economic growth and increasingly efficient financial sector, in despite of the weakness of the legal system.R&D investment, finance and growth, financial system and institutions