A stochastic model for induced seismicity based on non-linear pressure diffusion and irreversible permeability enhancement

During deep reservoir engineering projects, in which permeability is enhanced by high-pressure fluid injection, seismicity is invariably induced, posing nuisance to the local population and a potential hazard for structures. Hazard and risk assessment tools that can operate in real-time during reservoir stimulation depend on the ability to efficiently model induced seismicity. We here propose a novel modelling approach based on a combination of physical considerations and stochastic elements. It can model a large number of synthetic event catalogues, and at the same time is constrained by observations of hydraulic behaviour in the injection well. We model fluid flow using non-linear pressure diffusion equations, in which permeability increases irreversibly above a prescribed pressure threshold. The transient pressure field is used to trigger events at so-called ‘seed points' that are distributed randomly in space and represent potential earthquake hypocentres. We assign to each seed point a differential stress based on the mean estimates of the in situ stress field and add a normal distributed random value. Assuming a fault orientation with respect to the stress field and a Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion, we evaluate at each time step, if a seed point is triggered through a pressure increase. A negative proportional relationship between differential stress and b values is further assumed as observed from tectonic earthquakes and in laboratory experiments. As soon as an event is triggered, we draw a random magnitude from a power-law distribution with a b value corresponding to the differential stress at the triggered seed point. We thus obtain time-dependent catalogues of seismic events including magnitude. The strategy of modelling flow and seismicity in a decoupled manner ensures efficiency and flexibility of the model. The model parameters are calibrated using observations from the Basel deep geothermal experiment in 2006. We are able to reproduce the hydraulic behaviour, the space-time evolution of the seismicity and its frequency-magnitude distribution. A large number of simulations of the calibrated model are then used to capture the variability of the process, an important input to compute probabilistic seismic hazard. We also use the calibrated model to explore alternative injection scenarios by varying injection volume, pressure as well as depth, and show the possible effect of those parameters on seismic hazar

Hydromechanical Rock Slope Damage During Late Pleistocene and Holocene Glacial Cycles in an Alpine Valley

Subglacial water pressures influence groundwater conditions in proximal alpine valley rock slopes, varying with glacier advance and retreat in parallel with changing ice thickness. Fluctuating groundwater pressures in turn increase or reduce effective joint normal stresses, affecting the yield strength of discontinuities. Here we extend simplified assumptions of glacial debuttressing to investigate how glacier loading cycles together with changing groundwater pressures generate rock slope damage and prepare future slope instabilities. Using hydromechanical coupled numerical models closely based on the Aletsch Glacier valley in Switzerland, we simulate Late Pleistocene and Holocene glacier loading cycles including long‐term and annual groundwater fluctuations. Measurements of transient subglacial water pressures from ice boreholes in the Aletsch Glacier ablation area, as well as continuous monitoring of bedrock deformation from permanent Global Navigation Satellite Systems stations, help verify our model assumptions. While purely mechanical glacier loading cycles create only limited rock slope damage in our models, introducing a fluctuating groundwater table generates substantial new fracturing. Superposed annual groundwater cycles increase predicted damage. The cumulative effects are capable of destabilizing the eastern valley flank of our model in toppling‐mode failure, similar to field observations of active landslide geometry and kinematics. We find that hydromechanical fatigue is most effective acting in combination with long‐term loading and unloading of the slope during glacial cycles. Our results demonstrate that hydromechanical stresses associated with glacial cycles are capable of generating substantial rock slope damage and represent a key preparatory factor for paraglacial slope instabilities.ISSN:0148-0227ISSN:2169-9003ISSN:2169-901

Meter-scale stress heterogeneities and stress redistribution drive complex fracture slip and fracture growth during a hydraulic stimulation experiment

We investigated the induced seismicity, source mechanisms and mechanical responses of a decameter-scale hydraulic stimulation of a pre-existing shear zone in crystalline rock, at the Grimsel Test Site, Switzerland. The analysis reveals the meter-scale complexity of hydraulic stimulation, which remains hidden at the reservoir-scale. High earthquake location accuracy allowed the separation of four distinct clusters, of which three were attributed to the stimulation of fractures in the damage zone of the shear zone. The source mechanism of the larger-magnitude seismicity varied by cluster, and suggests a heterogeneous stress field already prevailing before stimulation, which is further modified during stimulation. In the course of the experiment, stress redistribution led to the aseismic initiation of a tensile-dominated fracture, which induced seismicity in the fourth of the identified seismic clusters. The streaky pattern of seismicity separated by zones without seismicity suggests fluid flow in conduits along existing fracture planes. The observed sub-meter scale complexity questions the forecasting ability of induced seismic hazard at the reservoir scale from small-scale experiments.ISSN:0956-540XISSN:1365-246

On the Variability of Pressure Propagation During Hydraulic Stimulation Based on Seismic Velocity Observations

ISSN:2169-9313ISSN:0148-0227ISSN:2169-935

Hydromechanical processes and their influence on the stimulation effected volume: observations from a decameter-scale hydraulic stimulation project

Six hydraulic shearing experiments have been conducted in the framework of the In-situ Stimulation and Circulation experiment within a decameter-scale crystalline rock volume at the Grimsel Test Site, Switzerland. During each experiment fractures associated with one out of two shear zone types were hydraulically reactivated. The two shear zone types differ in terms of tectonic genesis and architecture. An extensive monitoring system of sensors recording seismicity, pressure and strain was spatially distributed in 11 boreholes around the injection locations. As a result of the stimulation, the near-wellbore transmissivity increased up to 3 orders in magnitude. With one exception, jacking pressures were unchanged by the stimulations. Transmissivity change, jacking pressure and seismic activity were different for the two shear zone types, suggesting that the shear zone architectures govern the seismo-hydromechanical response. The elevated fracture fluid pressures associated with the stimulations propagated mostly along the stimulated shear zones. The absence of high-pressure signals away from the injection point for most experiments (except two out of six experiments) is interpreted as channelized flow within the shear zones. The observed deformation field within 15–20 m from the injection point is characterized by variable extensional and compressive strain produced by fracture normal opening and/or slip dislocation, as well as stress redistribution related to these processes. At greater distance from the injection location, strain measurements indicate a volumetric compressive zone, in which strain magnitudes decrease with increasing distance. These compressive strain signals are interpreted as a poro-elastic far-field response to the emplacement of fluid volume around the injection interval. Our hydromechanical data reveal that the overall stimulation effected volume is significantly larger than implied by the seismicity cloud and can be subdivided into a primary stimulated and secondary effected zone