SUIHTER: A new mathematical model for COVID-19. Application to the analysis of the second epidemic outbreak in Italy

The COVID-19 epidemic is the last of a long list of pandemics that have affected humankind in the last century. In this paper, we propose a novel mathematical epidemiological model named SUIHTER from the names of the seven compartments that it comprises: susceptible uninfected individuals (S), undetected (both asymptomatic and symptomatic) infected (U), isolated (I), hospitalized (H), threatened (T), extinct (E), and recovered (R). A suitable parameter calibration that is based on the combined use of least squares method and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is proposed with the aim of reproducing the past history of the epidemic in Italy, surfaced in late February and still ongoing to date, and of validating SUIHTER in terms of its predicting capabilities. A distinctive feature of the new model is that it allows a one-to-one calibration strategy between the model compartments and the data that are daily made available from the Italian Civil Protection. The new model is then applied to the analysis of the Italian epidemic with emphasis on the second outbreak emerged in Fall 2020. In particular, we show that the epidemiological model SUIHTER can be suitably used in a predictive manner to perform scenario analysis at national level.Comment: 25 page

Notulae to the Italian native vascular flora: 5.

In this contribution, new data concerning the distribution of native vascular flora in Italy are presented. It includes new records and confirmations to the Italian administrative regions for taxa in the genera Allium, Arabis, Campanula, Centaurea, Chaerophyllum, Crocus, Dactylis, Dianthus, Festuca, Galanthus, Helianthemum, Lysimachia, Milium, Pteris, and Quercus. Nomenclature and distribution updates, published elsewhere, and corrections are provided as supplementary material

Notulae to the Italian native vascular flora: 8

In this contribution, new data concerning the distribution of native vascular flora in Italy are presented. It includes new records, confirmations, exclusions, and status changes to the Italian administrative regions for taxa in the genera Ajuga, Chamaemelum, Clematis, Convolvulus, Cytisus, Deschampsia, Eleocharis, Epipactis, Euphorbia, Groenlandia, Hedera, Hieracium, Hydrocharis, Jacobaea, Juncus, Klasea, Lagurus, Leersia, Linum, Nerium, Onopordum, Persicaria, Phlomis, Polypogon, Potamogeton, Securigera, Sedum, Soleirolia, Stachys, Umbilicus, Valerianella, and Vinca. Nomenclatural and distribution updates, published elsewhere, and corrigenda are provided as Suppl. material 1

Notulae to the Italian native vascular flora: 1

In this contribution, new data concerning the Italian distribution of native vascular flora are presented. It includes new records, exclusions, and confirmations pertaining to the Italian administrative regions for taxa in the genera Arundo, Bromopsis, Cistus, Crocus, Festuca, Galeopsis, Genista, Lamium, Leucanthemum, Nerium, Orobanche, Peucedanum, Pilosella, Polycnemum, Stipa and Viola

Dai balconi ai parchi urbani: buone pratiche per un giardinaggio consapevole

Prodotto nell’ambito del progetto LIFE15 GIE/IT/001039 “Alien Species Awareness Program”(ASAP), è un opuscolo di tipo tecnico-pratico che intende fornire alcune informazioni di base sulle piante esotiche invasive presenti in Italia nonché, seguendo le buone pratiche dettate nel Codice di condotta definito nell’ambito della Convenzione di Berna, proporre un numero non esaustivo di specie native da utilizzare in alternativa alle piante esotiche invasive inserite nella Lista di Rilevanza Unionale e per le quali vi è divieto di importazione, commercio, possesso, riproduzione, trasporto, utilizzo e rilascio in natura. E’ indirizzato a tutti coloro che sono coinvolti direttamente o indirettamente nella produzione, commercializzazione e impiego delle piante ornamentali: aziende florovivaistiche importatori di piante e tutti coloro che svolgono un ruolo nella progettazione e realizzazione di aree verdi quali gli Architetti paesaggisti, i Dottori Forestali, i Dottori Agronomi e a tutti gli appassionati di giardinaggio. La scelta di utilizzare specie autoctone nel verde urbano risponde anche all’esigenza di garantire una migliore tutela e conservazione della biodiversità negli spazi urbani

Notulae to the Italian native vascular flora: 6

In this contribution, new data concerning the distribution of native vascular flora in Italy are presented. It includes new records, confirmations and status changes to the Italian administrative regions for taxa in the genera Alchemilla, Arundo, Bupleurum, Clematis, Clinopodium, Cota, Crassula, Cytisus, Euphorbia, Hieracium, Isoëtes, Lamium, Leontodon, Linaria, Lychnis, Middendorfia, Ophrys, Philadelphus, Pinus, Sagina, Sedum, Taeniatherum, Tofieldia, Triticum, Veronica, and Vicia. Nomenclature and distribution updates, published elsewhere, and corrigenda are provided as supplementary material

Notulae to the Italian native vascular flora: 6

In this contribution, new data concerning the distribution of native vascular flora in Italy are presented. It includes new records, confirmations and status changes to the Italian administrative regions for taxa in the genera Alchemilla, Arundo, Bupleurum, Clematis, Clinopodium, Cota, Crassula, Cytisus, Euphorbia, Hieracium, Isoëtes, Lamium, Leontodon, Linaria, Lychnis, Middendorfia, Ophrys, Philadelphus, Pinus, Sagina, Sedum, Taeniatherum, Tofieldia, Triticum, Veronica, and Vicia. Nomenclature and distribution updates, published elsewhere, and corrigenda are provided as supplementary material

Contributi per una flora vascolare di Toscana. VIII (440-506)

New localities and/or confirmations concerning 67 specific and subspecific plant taxa of Tuscan vascular flora, belonging to 59 genera and 37 families are presented: Alisma (Alismataceae), Amaranthus (Amaranthaceae), Leucojum, Sternbergia, Tristagma (Amaryllidaceae), Aloe (Asphodelaceae), Erigeron, Galinsoga, Hieracium, Rhagadiolus, Silybum, Soliva, Taraxacum (Asteraceae), Impatiens (Balsaminaceae), Berberis (Berberidaceae), Cardamine (Brassicaceae), Opuntia (Cactaceae), Cephalaria, Sixalix, Succisa (Caprifoliaceae), Silene (Caryophyllaceae), Convolvulus, Ipomoea (Convolvulaceae), Aeonium (Crassulaceae), Scirpus (Cyperaceae), Equisetum (Equisetaceae), Euphorbia (Euphorbiaceae), Astragalus, Trifolium (Fabaceae), Quercus (Fagaceae), Crocus (Iridaceae), Juncus (Juncaceae), Utricularia (Lentibulariaceae), Peplis (Lythraceae), Maclura (Moraceae), Nymphaea (Nymphaeaceae), Oenothera (Onagraceae), Anacamptis, Orchis (Orchidaceae), Orobanche (Orobanchaceae), Callitriche, Veronica (Plantaginaceae), Alopecurus, Eleusine, Glyceria, Phleum (Poaceae), Persicaria, Polygonum (Polygonaceae), Groenlandia (Potamogetonaceae), Clematis, Pulsatilla, Ranunculus (Ranunculaceae), Rhamnus (Rhamnaceae), Fragaria, Potentilla, Pyracantha (Rosaceae), Galium (Rubiaceae), Sparganium (Typhaceae), Vitis (Vitaceae). In the end, the conservation status of the units and eventual protection of the cited biotopes are discussed