Discussant\u27s response to Practical experiences with regression analysis

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/dl_proceedings/1092/thumbnail.jp

Monetary unit sampling: a belief-function implementation for audit and accounting applications

AbstractAudit procedures may be planned and audit evidence evaluated using monetary unit sampling (MUS) techniques within the context of the Dempster–Shafer theory of belief functions. This article shows: (1) how to determine an appropriate sample size for MUS in order to obtain a desired degree of belief that the upper bound for misstatements lies within a given interval; and (2) what level of belief in a specified interval is obtained given a sample result. The results are consistent with the view that a specified level of belief in an interval is semantically a stronger claim than the same numerical level of probability. The paper describes two variants of MUS in both probability and belief-function forms, emphasizing the systematic similarities and the numerical differences between the two frameworks. The results, based on the Poisson distribution, extend results already available for mean-per-unit variables sampling, and may readily be developed to give similar results for the binomial distribution

Discussant\u27s response to A Behavioral-economics approach to auditors\u27 risk assessments

https://egrove.olemiss.edu/dl_proceedings/1045/thumbnail.jp

The upper end of climate model temperature projections is inconsistent with past warming

Climate models predict a large range of possible future temperatures for a particular scenario of future emissions of greenhouse gases and other anthropogenic forcings of climate. Given that further warming in coming decades could threaten increasing risks of climatic disruption, it is important to determine whether model projections are consistent with temperature changes already observed. This can be achieved by quantifying the extent to which increases in well mixed greenhouse gases and changes in other anthropogenic and natural forcings have already altered temperature patterns around the globe. Here, for the first time, we combine multiple climate models into a single synthesized estimate of future warming rates consistent with past temperature changes. We show that the observed evolution of near-surface temperatures appears to indicate lower ranges (5–95%) for warming (0.35–0.82 K and 0.45–0.93 K by the 2020s (2020–9) relative to 1986–2005 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively) than the equivalent ranges projected by the CMIP5 climate models (0.48–1.00 K and 0.51–1.16 K respectively). Our results indicate that for each RCP the upper end of the range of CMIP5 climate model projections is inconsistent with past warming

Representation of Interrelationships among Binary Variables under Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Srivastava, R. P., L. Gao, and P. Gillett. " Representation of Interrelationships among Binary Variables under Dempster-Shafer Theory of Belief Functions" (pre-publication version), 2009, International Journal of Intelligent Systems, Volume 24 Issue 4, pp. 459 - 475, which has been published in final form at http://doi.org/10.1002/int.20347. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.This paper presents an algorithm for developing models under Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions for categorical and 'uncertain' logical relationships among binary variables. We illustrate the use of the algorithm by developing belief-function representations of the following categorical relationships: 'AND', 'OR', 'Exclusive OR (EOR)' and 'Not Exclusive OR (NEOR)', and 'AND-NEOR' and of the following uncertain relationships: 'Discounted AND', 'Conditional OR', and 'Weighted Average'. Such representations are needed to fully model and analyze a problem with a network of interrelated variables under Dempster-Shafer theory of belief functions. In addition, we compare our belief-function representation of the 'Weighted Average' relationship with the 'Weighted Average' representation developed and used by Shenoy and Shenoy8. We find that Shenoy and Shenoy representation of the weighted average relationship is an approximation and yields significantly different values under certain conditions

Spindle checkpoint proteins and chromosome–microtubule attachment in budding yeast

Accurate chromosome segregation depends on precise regulation of mitosis by the spindle checkpoint. This checkpoint monitors the status of kinetochore–microtubule attachment and delays the metaphase to anaphase transition until all kinetochores have formed stable bipolar connections to the mitotic spindle. Components of the spindle checkpoint include the mitotic arrest defective (MAD) genes MAD1–3, and the budding uninhibited by benzimidazole (BUB) genes BUB1 and BUB3. In animal cells, all known spindle checkpoint proteins are recruited to kinetochores during normal mitoses. In contrast, we show that whereas Saccharomyces cerevisiae Bub1p and Bub3p are bound to kinetochores early in mitosis as part of the normal cell cycle, Mad1p and Mad2p are kinetochore bound only in the presence of spindle damage or kinetochore lesions that interfere with chromosome–microtubule attachment. Moreover, although Mad1p and Mad2p perform essential mitotic functions during every division cycle in mammalian cells, they are required in budding yeast only when mitosis goes awry. We propose that differences in the behavior of spindle checkpoint proteins in animal cells and budding yeast result primarily from evolutionary divergence in spindle assembly pathways

Spontaneous excretion of a pseudomembranous intestinal cast in an infant with an acute diarrhoeal illness – a case report and literature review

We present a case of an 8-week-old infant with acute bloody diarrhoea andsubsequent passage of an intestinal cast. An extensive immune and infection work-updid not reveal a causative aetiology. Histopathology indicated the cast represented anintestinal pseudomembrane. 16S bacterial PCR of the pathology specimen wasnegative. The infant required a period of parenteral nutrition due to diarrhoeal lossesbut made a full recovery and had no sequelae from this illness. Intestinal casts are arare occurrence, particularly in paediatrics. It prompts a wide differential which includesacute infection, immunodeficiency and ischaemia. Accurate quantification of stoollosses, appropriate nutrition support and liaison with microbiology colleagues wereessential in this case

Chaotic zone boundary for low free eccentricity particles near an eccentric planet

We consider particles with low free or proper eccentricity that are orbiting near planets on eccentric orbits. Via collisionless particle integration we numerically find the location of the boundary of the chaotic zone in the planet's corotation region. We find that the distance in semi-major axis between the planet and boundary depends on the planet mass to the 2/7 power and is independent of the planet eccentricity, at least for planet eccentricities below 0.3. Our integrations reveal a similarity between the dynamics of particles at zero eccentricity near a planet in a circular orbit and with zero free eccentricity particles near an eccentric planet. The 2/7 law has been previously explained by estimating the semi-major at which the first order mean motion resonances are large enough to overlap. Orbital dynamics near an eccentric planet could differ due to first order corotation resonances that have strength proportional to the planet's eccentricity. However, we find the corotation resonance width at low free eccentricity is small. Also the first order resonance width at zero free eccentricity is the same as that for a zero eccentricity particle near a planet in a circular orbit. This accounts for insensitivity of the chaotic zone width to planet eccentricity. Particles at zero free eccentricity near an eccentric planet have similar dynamics to those at zero eccentricity near a planet in a circular orbit.Comment: accepted for publication in MNRA

Regionally acquired intestinal failure data suggest an underestimate in national service requirements

Objectives, setting and patients: With complete case referral for prolonged parenteral nutrition (PN) beyond term equivalent, serving a stable population of 1.25 million people, we describe the long-term outcome and survival of patients referred to an intestinal failure (IF) nutrition support team over the first 8 years of existence at a regional paediatric centre, and extrapolate to potential numbers of national home parenteral nutrition (HPN) cases and intestinal transplantation data. Design and outcome measures: Retrospective analysis detailing patient demographics, interventions, use of HPN, occurrence of intestinal failure-associated liver disease (IFALD), and outcomes of enteral adaptation, survival, and referral for and receipt of organ transplantation. Results: 23 patients were referred over 8 years, 20 being PN dependent within the neonatal period. Diagnoses included short bowel syndrome (SBS) (18), neuromuscular abnormalities (4) and congenital enterocyte disorder (1). 12 696 days of PN were delivered with 314 confirmed episodes of sepsis at a median of 12 episodes per patient. 144 central venous catheters (CVCs) were required at a median of four per patient. IFALD occurred in 17 (73%) patients, with 10 (44%) referred for transplant assessment. Thirteen (56%) children received HPN. Overall mortality was 44%. A significant predictor for survival in the SBS group was residual bowel >40 cm (82% vs 28%, p = 0.049). Conclusions: Survival for IF at 56% was lower than reported from non-UK supra-regional centres, and nationally collected data, possibly reflecting pre-selected referral populations. Data from regional centres with complete ascertainment may be important both when counselling parents and when planning regional and national HPN and IF specialist services