Recombination rate and selection strength in HIV intra-patient evolution

The evolutionary dynamics of HIV during the chronic phase of infection is driven by the host immune response and by selective pressures exerted through drug treatment. To understand and model the evolution of HIV quantitatively, the parameters governing genetic diversification and the strength of selection need to be known. While mutation rates can be measured in single replication cycles, the relevant effective recombination rate depends on the probability of coinfection of a cell with more than one virus and can only be inferred from population data. However, most population genetic estimators for recombination rates assume absence of selection and are hence of limited applicability to HIV, since positive and purifying selection are important in HIV evolution. Here, we estimate the rate of recombination and the distribution of selection coefficients from time-resolved sequence data tracking the evolution of HIV within single patients. By examining temporal changes in the genetic composition of the population, we estimate the effective recombination to be r=1.4e-5 recombinations per site and generation. Furthermore, we provide evidence that selection coefficients of at least 15% of the observed non-synonymous polymorphisms exceed 0.8% per generation. These results provide a basis for a more detailed understanding of the evolution of HIV. A particularly interesting case is evolution in response to drug treatment, where recombination can facilitate the rapid acquisition of multiple resistance mutations. With the methods developed here, more precise and more detailed studies will be possible, as soon as data with higher time resolution and greater sample sizes is available.Comment: to appear in PLoS Computational Biolog

Solving the chemical master equation using sliding windows

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The chemical master equation (CME) is a system of ordinary differential equations that describes the evolution of a network of chemical reactions as a stochastic process. Its solution yields the probability density vector of the system at each point in time. Solving the CME numerically is in many cases computationally expensive or even infeasible as the number of reachable states can be very large or infinite. We introduce the sliding window method, which computes an approximate solution of the CME by performing a sequence of local analysis steps. In each step, only a manageable subset of states is considered, representing a "window" into the state space. In subsequent steps, the window follows the direction in which the probability mass moves, until the time period of interest has elapsed. We construct the window based on a deterministic approximation of the future behavior of the system by estimating upper and lower bounds on the populations of the chemical species.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In order to show the effectiveness of our approach, we apply it to several examples previously described in the literature. The experimental results show that the proposed method speeds up the analysis considerably, compared to a global analysis, while still providing high accuracy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The sliding window method is a novel approach to address the performance problems of numerical algorithms for the solution of the chemical master equation. The method efficiently approximates the probability distributions at the time points of interest for a variety of chemically reacting systems, including systems for which no upper bound on the population sizes of the chemical species is known a priori.</p

Global parameter estimation methods for stochastic biochemical systems

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The importance of stochasticity in cellular processes having low number of molecules has resulted in the development of stochastic models such as chemical master equation. As in other modelling frameworks, the accompanying rate constants are important for the end-applications like analyzing system properties (e.g. robustness) or predicting the effects of genetic perturbations. Prior knowledge of kinetic constants is usually limited and the model identification routine typically includes parameter estimation from experimental data. Although the subject of parameter estimation is well-established for deterministic models, it is not yet routine for the chemical master equation. In addition, recent advances in measurement technology have made the quantification of genetic substrates possible to single molecular levels. Thus, the purpose of this work is to develop practical and effective methods for estimating kinetic model parameters in the chemical master equation and other stochastic models from single cell and cell population experimental data.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three parameter estimation methods are proposed based on the maximum likelihood and density function distance, including probability and cumulative density functions. Since stochastic models such as chemical master equations are typically solved using a Monte Carlo approach in which only a finite number of Monte Carlo realizations are computationally practical, specific considerations are given to account for the effect of finite sampling in the histogram binning of the state density functions. Applications to three practical case studies showed that while maximum likelihood method can effectively handle low replicate measurements, the density function distance methods, particularly the cumulative density function distance estimation, are more robust in estimating the parameters with consistently higher accuracy, even for systems showing multimodality.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The parameter estimation methodologies described in this work have provided an effective and practical approach in the estimation of kinetic parameters of stochastic systems from either sparse or dense cell population data. Nevertheless, similar to kinetic parameter estimation in other modelling frameworks, not all parameters can be estimated accurately, which is a common problem arising from the lack of complete parameter identifiability from the available data.</p

Effect of promoter architecture on the cell-to-cell variability in gene expression

According to recent experimental evidence, the architecture of a promoter, defined as the number, strength and regulatory role of the operators that control the promoter, plays a major role in determining the level of cell-to-cell variability in gene expression. These quantitative experiments call for a corresponding modeling effort that addresses the question of how changes in promoter architecture affect noise in gene expression in a systematic rather than case-by-case fashion. In this article, we make such a systematic investigation, based on a simple microscopic model of gene regulation that incorporates stochastic effects. In particular, we show how operator strength and operator multiplicity affect this variability. We examine different modes of transcription factor binding to complex promoters (cooperative, independent, simultaneous) and how each of these affects the level of variability in transcription product from cell-to-cell. We propose that direct comparison between in vivo single-cell experiments and theoretical predictions for the moments of the probability distribution of mRNA number per cell can discriminate between different kinetic models of gene regulation.Comment: 35 pages, 6 figures, Submitte

Master equation simulation analysis of immunostained Bicoid morphogen gradient

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The concentration gradient of Bicoid protein which determines the developmental pathways in early <it>Drosophila </it>embryo is the best characterized morphogen gradient at the molecular level. Because different developmental fates can be elicited by different concentrations of Bicoid, it is important to probe the limits of this specification by analyzing intrinsic fluctuations of the Bicoid gradient arising from small molecular number. Stochastic simulations can be applied to further the understanding of the dynamics of Bicoid morphogen gradient formation at the molecular number level, and determine the source of the nucleus-to-nucleus expression variation (noise) observed in the Bicoid gradient.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We compared quantitative observations of Bicoid levels in immunostained <it>Drosophila </it>embryos with a spatially extended Master Equation model which represents diffusion, decay, and anterior synthesis. We show that the intrinsic noise of an autonomous reaction-diffusion gradient is Poisson distributed. We demonstrate how experimental noise can be identified in the logarithm domain from single embryo analysis, and then separated from intrinsic noise in the normalized variance domain of an ensemble statistical analysis. We show how measurement sensitivity affects our observations, and how small amounts of rescaling noise can perturb the noise strength (Fano factor) observed. We demonstrate that the biological noise level in data can serve as a physical constraint for restricting the model's parameter space, and for predicting the Bicoid molecular number and variation range. An estimate based on a low variance ensemble of embryos suggests that the steady-state Bicoid molecular number in a nucleus should be larger than 300 in the middle of the embryo, and hence the gradient should extend to the posterior end of the embryo, beyond the previously assumed background limit. We exhibit the predicted molecular number gradient together with measurement effects, and make a comparison between conditions of higher and lower variance respectively.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Quantitative comparison of Master Equation simulations with immunostained data enabled us to determine narrow ranges for key biophysical parameters, which for this system can be independently validated. Intrinsic noise is clearly detectable as well, although the staining process introduces certain limits in resolution.</p

Phylogenetic Beta Diversity Metrics, Trait Evolution and Inferring the Functional Beta Diversity of Communities

The beta diversity of communities along gradients has fascinated ecologists for decades. Traditionally such studies have focused on the species composition of communities, but researchers are becoming increasingly interested in analyzing the phylogenetic composition in the hope of achieving mechanistic insights into community structure. To date many metrics of phylogenetic beta diversity have been published, but few empirical studies have been published. Further inferences made from such phylogenetic studies critically rely on the pattern of trait evolution. The present work provides a study of the phylogenetic dissimilarity of 96 tree communities in India. The work compares and contrasts eight metrics of phylogenetic dissimilarity, considers the role of phylogenetic signal in trait data and shows that environmental distance rather than spatial distance is the best correlate of phylogenetic dissimilarity in the study system

Towards a Runtime Comparison of Natural and Artificial Evolution

Evolutionary algorithms (EAs) form a popular optimisation paradigm inspired by natural evolution. In recent years the field of evolutionary computation has developed a rigorous analytical theory to analyse the runtimes of EAs on many illustrative problems. Here we apply this theory to a simple model of natural evolution. In the Strong Selection Weak Mutation (SSWM) evolutionary regime the time between occurrences of new mutations is much longer than the time it takes for a mutated genotype to take over the population. In this situation, the population only contains copies of one genotype and evolution can be modelled as a stochastic process evolving one genotype by means of mutation and selection between the resident and the mutated genotype. The probability of accepting the mutated genotype then depends on the change in fitness. We study this process, SSWM, from an algorithmic perspective, quantifying its expected optimisation time for various parameters and investigating differences to a similar evolutionary algorithm, the well-known (1+1) EA. We show that SSWM can have a moderate advantage over the (1+1) EA at crossing fitness valleys and study an example where SSWM outperforms the (1+1) EA by taking advantage of information on the fitness gradient