Structural reforms, macroeconomic policies and the future of Kazakhstan

This paper presents a small macroeconomic model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. The simulations provide insight into the role of a tight monetary policy, higher foreign direct investment, rises in nominal wages and in crude oil prices. The results obtained are in line with the economic observations and give some support to the policies chosen as priority targets by the Kazakh authorities for the forthcoming years.Central Asian CIS countries; Kazakhstan; macroeconomic stabilization; transition economies

TESTING THE FINANCE-GROWTH LINK: IS THERE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?

We revisit the evidence of the existence of a long-run link between financial intermediation and economic growth, by testing of cointegration between the growth rate of real GDP, control variables and three series reflecting financial intermediation. We consider a model with a factor structure that allows us to determine whether the finance-growth link is due to cross countries dependence and/or whether it characterises countries with strong heterogeneities. We employ techniques recently proposed in the panel data literature, such as PANIC analysis and cointegration in common factor models. Our results show differences between the developed and developing countries. We run a comparative regression analysis on the 1980-2006 period and find that financial intermediation is a positive determinant of growth in developed countries, while it acts negatively on the economic growth of developing countries.financial intermediation; growth; common factor; panel data; PANIC analysis

A SIMPLE FRACTIONALLY INTEGRATED MODEL WITH A TIME-VARYING LONG MEMORY PARAMETER Dt

This paper generalizes the standard long memory modeling by assuming that the long memory parameter d is stochastic and time varying: we introduce a STAR process on this parameter characterized by a logistic function. We propose an estimation method of this model. Some simulation experiments are conducted. The empirical results suggest that this new model offers an interesting alternative competing framework to describe the persistent dynamics in modelling some financial series.Long-memory, Logistic function, STAR

Public finance sustainability in Europe: a behavioral model

This paper investigates the sustainability of public finances in the European countries since 2002. We provide evidence of heterogenous behaviors among the EU countries and show that, even if they had been forced to focus their fiscal efforts on correcting the deviations of debt from their ceiling -through a correcting mechanism such as the recent TSCG rule-, this would not necessarily have changed the likelihood that debt and deficits become more sustainable. Sources of deviations from stable debt and deficits are related to the macroeconomic environment: the interest-growth differential, momentum dynamics in the sovereign bond markets, how markets react to rising debt

Modelling squared returns using a SETAR model with long-memory dynamics

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model for the volatility with a long-memory process in the first regime and a short-memory process in the second regime. Persistence properties are studied and estimation methods are proposed. Such a process is applied to stock indices and individual asset prices.SETAR - Long-memory - FARIMA models - Stock indices

Financial spillovers from the US financial markets to the emerging markets during the subprime crisis: the example of Indian equity markets

This paper provides evidence of spillover effects from the Indian to the US financial markets. We use VAR and Kalman filter analysis to assess the influence of financial stress indicators like the LIBOR-OIS, CDS, the S&P 500 volatility and the exchange rate of the rupee against the Dollar on two indicators of financial stress in India, namely the illiquidity of stock indices and their volatility. We conduct an analysis bases on both daily and monthly frequency and use a database that consists of both aggregate and disaggregated indexes. Our results points to a signification contagion effect after the period following the Lehman Brothers collapse.Subprime crisis, Emerging Markets, VAR analysis, financial stress

Business Cycles Synchronization in East Asia: A Markov-Switching Approach

This paper attempts to analyze the relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries' business cycles. We examine the nature of business cycles correlation trying to disentangle between regional spillover effects (expansion and recession phases among the ASEAN-5 are correlated) and global spillovers where the business cycles of other countries (China, Japan and the US) play an important role in synchronizing the activity within the ASEAN-5. We employ a time-varying transition probability Markov switching framework in order to allow the degree of synchronization to fluctuate over time and across the phases of the business cycles. We provide evidence that the signals contained in some leading business cycles can impact the ASEAN-5 countries' individual business cycles

Testing the finance-growth link: is there a difference between developed and developing countries?

We revisit the evidence of the existence of a long -run link between financial intermediation and economic growth, by testing of cointegration between the growth rate of real GDP, control variables and three series reflecting financial intermediation. We consider a model with a factor structure that allows us to determine whether the finance-growth link is due to cross countries dependence and/or whether it characterizes countries with strong heterogeneities. We employ techniques recently proposed in the panel data literature, such as PANIC analysis and cointegration in common factor models. Our results show differences between the developed and developing countries. We run a comparative regression analysis on the 1980-2006 period and find that financial intermediation is a positive determinant of growth in developed countries, while it acts negatively on the economic growth of developing countries.growth; developing countries; financial intermediation

Structural reforms, macroeconomic policies and the future of Kazakhstan

Working Paper du GATE 2004-11This paper presents a small macroeconomic model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. The simulations provide insight into the role of a tight monetary policy, higher foreign direct investment, rises in nominal wages and in crude oil prices. The results obtained are in line with the economic observations and give some support to the policies chosen as priority targets by the Kazakh authorities for the forthcoming years

TESTING THE FINANCE-GROWTH LINK: IS THERE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES?

We revisit the evidence of the existence of a long-run link between financial intermediation and economic growth, by testing of cointegration between the growth rate of real GDP, control variables and three series reflecting financial intermediation. We consider a model with a factor structure that allows us to determine whether the finance-growth link is due to cross countries dependence and/or whether it characterises countries with strong heterogeneities. We employ techniques recently proposed in the panel data literature, such as PANIC analysis and cointegration in common factor models. Our results show differences between the developed and developing countries. We run a comparative regression analysis on the 1980-2006 period and find that financial intermediation is a positive determinant of growth in developed countries, while it acts negatively on the economic growth of developing countries