The cross section of conditional mutual fund performance in European stock markets

This paper implements strategies that use macroeconomic variables to select European equity mutual funds, including Pan-European, country, and sector funds. We find that several macro-variables are useful in locating funds with future outperformance and that country-specific mutual funds provide the best opportunities for fund rotation strategies using macroeconomic information. Specifically, our baseline long-only strategies that exploit time-varying predictability provide four-factor alphas of 12–13% per year over the 1993–2008 period. Our study provides new evidence on the skills of local versus Pan-European asset managers, as well as how macroeconomic information can be used to locate and time these local fund manager skills

Experimenting with Measurement Error: Techniques with Applications to the Caltech Cohort Study

Measurement error is ubiquitous in experimental work. It leads to imperfect statistical controls, attenuated estimated effects of elicited behaviors, and biased correlations between characteristics. We develop statistical techniques for handling experimental measurement error. These techniques are applied to data from the Caltech Cohort Study, which conducts repeated incentivized surveys of the Caltech student body. We replicate three classic experiments, demonstrating that results change substantially when measurement error is accounted for. Collectively, these results show that failing to properly account for measurement error may cause a field-wide bias leading scholars to identify “new” phenomena

Using the nominal group technique to involve young people in an evidence synthesis which explored 'risk' in inpatient mental healthcare

Background In this paper we demonstrate how our application of the nominal group technique was used as a method of involving young people with previous experience of using inpatient mental health services in an evidence synthesis. Methods Nominal group technique is an approach to group decision-making that places weight on all participants having an equal opportunity to express a view, and to influence decisions which are made. It is an effective way to enable people who might otherwise be excluded from decision-making to contribute. Results In this study, the focus of the evidence synthesis was significantly shaped following using the nominal group technique in our stakeholder advisory group meeting. The young people present in the group invited the research group to think differently about which ‘risks’ were important, to consider how young people conceptualised risk differently, focussing on risks with long term impact and quality of life implications, rather than immediate clinical risks. Conclusions Using the nominal group technique with young people did offer a method of promoting the equality of decision making within a stakeholder advisory group to an evidence synthesis project, but care needs to be taken to invite sufficient young people to attend so they can be proportionally represented

NF‐κB1, NF‐κB2 and c‐Rel differentially regulate susceptibility to colitis‐associated adenoma development in C57BL/6 mice

NF‐κB signalling is an important factor in the development of inflammation‐associated cancers. Mouse models of Helicobacter‐induced gastric cancer and colitis‐associated colorectal cancer have demonstrated that classical NF‐κB signalling is an important regulator of these processes. In the stomach, it has also been demonstrated that signalling involving specific NF‐κB proteins, including NF‐κB1/p50, NF‐κB2/p52, and c‐Rel, differentially regulate the development of gastric pre‐neoplasia. To investigate the effect of NF‐κB subunit loss on colitis‐associated carcinogenesis, we administered azoxymethane followed by pulsed dextran sodium sulphate to C57BL/6, Nfkb1−/−, Nfkb2−/−, and c‐Rel−/−mice. Animals lacking the c‐Rel subunit were more susceptible to colitis‐associated cancer than wild‐type mice, developing 3.5 times more colonic polyps per animal than wild‐type mice. Nfkb2−/− mice were resistant to colitis‐associated cancer, developing fewer polyps per colon than wild‐type mice (median 1 compared to 4). To investigate the mechanisms underlying these trends, azoxymethane and dextran sodium sulphate were administered separately to mice of each genotype. Nfkb2−/− mice developed fewer clinical signs of colitis and exhibited less severe colitis and an attenuated cytokine response compared with all other groups following DSS administration. Azoxymethane administration did not fully suppress colonic epithelial mitosis in c‐Rel−/− mice and less colonic epithelial apoptosis was also observed in this genotype compared to wild‐type counterparts. These observations demonstrate different functions of specific NF‐κB subunits in this model of colitis‐associated carcinogenesis. NF‐κB2/p52 is necessary for the development of colitis, whilst c‐Rel‐mediated signalling regulates colonic epithelial cell turnover following DNA damage

Effects of digging by a native and introduced ecosystem engineer on soil physical and chemical properties in temperate grassy woodland

Temperate grasslands and woodlands are the focus of extensive restoration efforts worldwide. Reintroduction of locally extinct soil-foraging and burrowing animals has been suggested as a means to restore soil function in these ecosystems. Yet little is known about the physical and chemical effects of digging on soil over time and how these effects differ between species of digging animal, vegetation types or ecosystems. We compared foraging pits of a native reintroduced marsupial, the eastern bettong (Bettongia gaimardi) and that of the exotic European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus). We simulated pits of these animals and measured pit dimensions and soil chemical properties over a period of 2 years. We showed that bettong and rabbit pits differed in their morphology and longevity, and that pits had a strong moderating effect on soil surface temperatures. Over 75% of the simulated pits were still visible after 2 years, and bettong pits infilled faster than rabbit pits. Bettong pits reduced diurnal temperature range by up to 25 C compared to the soil surface. We did not find any effects of digging on soil chemistry that were consistent across vegetation types, between bettong and rabbit pits, and with time since digging, which is contrary to studies conducted in arid biomes. Our findings show that animal foraging pits in temperate ecosystems cause physical alteration of the soil surface and microclimatic conditions rather than nutrient changes often observed in arid areas.This work was supported by an Australian Research Council Linkage Grant (LP0561817, LP110100126, LP140100209). Catherine Ross was supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship, and an additional scholarship top-up from the ARC (LP140100209)

A fragmentary leptonectid ichthyosaurian from the lower Pliensbachian of Luxembourg

peer reviewedDespite abundant fossils, the quality of the fossil record of Early Jurassic marine reptiles strongly fluctuates with time and space. Pliensbachian strata have yielded very few marine reptile remains, especially outside of England, obscuring the evolution of marine reptiles during the middle part of the Early Jurassic. We report a new Pliensbachian locality from Luxembourg that contains abundant marine fauna and ichthyosaurian remains likely representing a single individual, composed of a partial snout, a possible surangular, two centra, and several ribs and gastralia. Ammonites and belemnites place this locality within the Valdani-Luridum Ammonite subzones of the Ibex Ammonite Zone, lower Pliensbachian. We assign the new ichthyosaur specimen to the clade Leptonectidae, using a combination of features from the snout and teeth. This specimen indicates that large neoichthyosaurians were present in multiple places of the European archipelago in all stages of the Early Jurassic and suggests that the ichthyosaurian faunae of western Europe remained essentially similar across the Sinemurian-Pliensbachian interval.Malgré d’abondants fossiles, la qualité de l’enregistrement fossile des reptiles marins du Jurassique inférieur fluctue largement à travers le temps et l’espace. Les strates pliensbachiennes ont fourni très peu de fossiles de reptiles marins, singulièrement hors d’Angleterre, occultant l’évolution des reptiles marins durant la partie centrale du Jurassique inférieur. Nous rapportons une nouvelle localité pliensbachienne au Luxembourg, contenant une faune marine abondante et des restes d’ichthyosaures représentant probablement un seul individu composé d’un museau partiel, un possible surangulaire, deux centra, ainis que plusieurs côtes et gastralia. Les ammonites et les bélemnites placent cette localité au sein des sous-zones à ammonites Valdini-Luridum, zone Ibex, Pliensbachien inférieur. Nous attribuons le nouveau specimen d’ichtyosaure au clade Leptonectidae, en utilisant une combination de caractrères issus du museau et des dents. Ce specimen indique que de large néoichthyosaures étaient présents à de multiples endroits au sein de l’archipel européen durant chaque étage du Jurassique inférieur et suggère que les faunes d’ichtyosaures d’Europe de l’Ouest sont restées essentiellement similaires durant l’intervalle Sinémurien-Pliensbachien.Trotz zahlreicher Fossilien unterliegt die Vollständigkeit der fossilen Überlieferung von Meeresreptilien aus dem frühen Jura starken zeitlichen und geographischen Schwankungen. Die Schichten des Pliensbachium haben nur sehr wenige marine Reptilienreste hervorgebracht, vor allem außerhalb Englands. Aus diesem Grund ist die Entwicklung der Meeresreptilien während des mittleren Teils des frühen Juras verhältnismäßig wenig bekannt. Wir berichten über einen neuen Fundort aus dem Pliensbachium Luxemburgs, der eine reichhaltige Meeresfauna geliefert hat, darunter Ichthyosaurier-Überreste, die wahrscheinlich ein einzelnes Individuum darstellen, bestehend aus einem Teil der Schnauze, einem möglichen Surangular, zwei Wirbelzentren und mehreren Rippen und Gastralia. Anhand von Ammoniten und Belemniten lässt sich die Fundschicht in die Valdani-Luridum Ammoniten-Subzonen der Ibex Ammoniten-Zone im unteren Pliensbachium einordnen. Eine Kombination von Merkmalen der Schnauze und der Zähne erlaubt eine Einordnung des Ichthyosaurier-Exemplars in die Kladus Leptonectidae. Das Exemplar deutet darauf hin, dass große Neoichthyosaurier in allen Phasen des frühen Jura an mehreren Orten des europäischen Archipels vorkamen, und legt nahe, dass die Ichthyosaurier-Fauna Westeuropas während des Sinemurium-Pliensbachium im Wesentlichen ähnlich blieb

Crisis responses for children and young people: a systematic review of effectiveness, experiences and service organisation (CAMH-Crisis)

Background: In England, one in six children aged 5–19 has a probable diagnosable mental health disorder. This is a major public health problem, with multiple agencies adopting varying approaches to care delivery for children and young people (CYP) in crisis. Objectives: To examine the organisation of crisis services across education, health, social care and voluntary sectors; the experiences and perceptions of CYP, families and staff; the effectiveness of current approaches to care and the goals of crisis intervention. Methods: A systematic review of all relevant English language evidence regarding the provision and receipt of crisis support for CYP aged 5–25 (PROSPERO-CRD42019160134). Seventeen databases were searched from 1995 to 2002 and relevant UK-only grey literature was identified. Critical appraisal was conducted using appropriate design specific appraisal tools. A narrative approach to synthesis was conducted. Results: In total, 138 reports (48 reports covering 42 primary research studies; 36 reports covering 39 descriptive accounts of the organisation services and 54 UK-only grey literature reports) were included. The evidence suggests that crisis services were organised as follows: triage/assessment-only, digitally mediated support approaches, and intervention approaches and models. When looking at experiences of crisis care, four themes were identified: (a) barriers and facilitators to seeking and accessing appropriate support; (b) what children and young people want from crisis services; (c) children's, young people's and families' experiences of crisis services; and (d) service provision. In determining effectiveness, the findings are summarised by type of service and were generated from single heterogenous studies. The goals of crisis services were identified. Discussion: Despite a lack of high-quality international studies, findings suggest that support prior to reaching crisis point is important. From this work, various aspects of crisis care have been identified that can be incorporated into existing services across education, health, social care and the voluntary sector