Fractional Integration and Structural Breaks in U.S. Macro Dynamics

This paper identifies structural breaks in the post-World War II joint dynamics of U.S. inflation, unemployment and the short-term interest rate. We derive a structural break-date procedure which allows for long-memory behavior in all three series and perform the analysis for alternative data frequencies. Both long-memory and short-run coefficients are relevant for characterizing the changing patterns of U.S. macroeconomic dynamics. We provide an economic interpretation of those changes by examining the link between macroeconomic events and structural breaks.Fractional integration, structural breaks, multivariate analysis, inflation dynamics

Effectiveness of a video-feedback and questioning programme to develop cognitive expertise in sport

The importance within sport expertise of cognitive factors has been emphasised in many research studies. Adaptations that take place in athletes’ long-term memories are going to condition their decision-making and performance, and training programmes must be developed that improve these adaptations. In our study, we provide a tactical-cognitive training programme based on video-feedback and questioning in order to improve tactical knowledge in tennis players and verify its effect when transferred to athletes’ decision-making. 11 intermediate tennis players participated in this study (12.960.7 years old), distributed into two groups (experimental, n = 5; control, n = 6). Tactical knowledge was measured by problem representation and strategy planning with a verbal protocol. Decision-making was measured by a systematic observation instrument. Results confirm the effectiveness of a combination of video-feedback and questioning on cognitive expertise, developing adaptations in long-term memory that produce an improvement in the quality of tactical knowledge (content, sophistication and structure). This, in turn, is transferred to the athletes’ decision-making capacity, leading to a higher percentage of successful decisions made during game play. Finally, we emphasise the need to develop effective programmes to develop cognitive expertise and improve athletes’ performance, and include it in athletes’ formative stages

How Lithium Prices Affect Mergers and Acquisitions in the Lithium Industry.

Is lithium affecting business strategies in the sector? We employ methodologies based on Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and fractional integration and cointegration vector autoregressive models (FCVAR) models to analyze how lithium prices influence mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the lithium industry over the world. The univariate and the multivariate results obtained using long memory methods support the nonstationary nature of the data, but they seem to be linked in the long-term through a fractional cointegrated relationship. In addition, analysis in the time-frequency domain indicates that both series are highly correlated from 2015 to 2017, finding that the lithium prices explain the M&A behavior after mid-2016 until early 2017.pre-print451 K

Global CO2 emissions and global temperatures: Are they related

This paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between CO2 emissions and temperatures. For this purpose, global CO2 emissions and four measures of global temperatures (land, land and ocean, northern and southern temperatures) are used. We used techniques based on fractional integration and cointegration. The results indicate first that the orders of integration differ in the two variables. Thus, while emissions are I(1) or I(d) with d higher than 1, temperatures display orders of integration strictly smaller than 1 and thus invalidating the hypothesis of cointegration between the two variables. Due to this, another approach is conducted where we suppose that the emissions are weakly exogenous in relation to the temperatures. The results using this approach show a significantly positive relationship between the two variables with a long memory pattern.pre-print303 K

Lithium industry in the behaviour of the mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. oil and gas industry.

Is lithium affecting the U.S. oil and gas industry strategies? Lithium has an increasingly strategic role as clean technologies emerge, affecting the strategies of oil and gas companies in response to energy trends. This paper contributes to this literature, studying the dynamics of lithium industry and mergers and acquisitions in the U.S. oil and gas industry in time-frequency domain. We use methodologies based on Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and Vector AutoRegressive Models (VAR), and the results indicate that both time series are correlated in the long term, where M&A U.S. oil and gas industry dependence on lithium industry has increased, starting in the early 2014 until the end of the sample. Evidence of causality is not found between both time seriespre-print716 K

Lithium industry and the U.S. crude oil prices. A fractional cointegration VAR and a Continuous Wavelet Transform analysis.

This paper analyzes the dynamics of U.S. lithium mining companies, the lithium industry and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices using a Fractional Cointegration Vector AutoRegressive model (FCVAR model) and a Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) for its resolution. The results indicate evidence of a negative relationship between FMC Corp with Albermale and SQM stock prices. These results are similar if we analyze the risk based on the beta term structure of each company. Analyzing the fractional differencing parameter for the stock prices and their logs, we observe that they are very persistent, and there are no long-term deviations in the stock prices. The same happens when analyzing the beta term structure. Based on Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) methods, our results show that lithium mining companies and the lithium industry are weakly correlated with WTI crude oil prices at higher frequencies (short-run) and persist through the sample period. At lower frequencies (long-term) the time series reached a high level of dependence between late 2012 to mid 2016, concluding that the lithium mining companies and the lithium industry reflect and foreshadow the responsiveness of the WTI crude oil prices during the period mentioned above.pre-print399 K

Water prices: persistence, mean reversion and trends.

Time series referring to water prices at different regions all over the world are examined in this paper by using fractionally integrated methods. We look at series corresponding to the following regions: Asia Pacific and Russia, Europe, United States and Latin America as well as global data. The results indicate large degrees of persistence, with the values of the differencing parameter being close to one in all cases and higher under the assumption of uncorrelated errors. If autocorrelation is permitted, a small degree of mean reversion is found in all except the Latin American series. The possibility of structural breaks is also investigated and the results indicate the presence of multiple breaks in the data: three in the case of Latin America and global data; four in Europe and USA and five for the Asian Pacific and Russia. Nevertheless, we do not observe a significant change in the degree of persistence across subsamples and once more mean reversion is found if autocorrelation is permitted.post-print353 K

Pandemic episodes, CO2 emissions and global temperatures.

This paper deals with the relationship between the CO2 emissions and the global temperatures across the various pandemic episodes that have been taken place in the last 100 years. To carry out the analysis, first we conducted unit root tests finding evidence of nonstationary I(1) behavior, that means that a shift in time causes a change in the shape of distribution. However, due to the low statistical power of unit root tests, we also used a methodology based on long memory and fractional integration. Our results indicate that the emissions display very heterogeneous behaviour in relation with the degree of persistence across pandemics. The temperatures are more homogeneous, finding values for the orders of integration of the series smaller than 1 in all cases, and thus showing mean reverting behaviour.pre-print349 K

Spatial crude oil production divergence and crude oil price behaviour in the United States.

This paper deals with the analysis of (spatial) crude oil production divergence in the United States, paying particular attention to the domestic crude oil production between PADD 2 and PADD 3, which are the areas in which the bottleneck occurs and has a direct implication on the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI). To this purpose, we use techniques based on fractional integration, fractional cointegration VAR (FCVAR) and wavelet analysis. Monthly data related to the oil production in the U.S. by regions (Anadarko, Appalachia, Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Niobrara and Permian) from January 2007 to June 2020 are used. The results, using fractional integration and cointegration techniques, indicate that the time series analyzed are highly persistent and there is evidence of long run equilibrium relationships in some of the series. Finally, using wavelet analysis, we conclude that the most affected areas are Anadarko, Appalachia, Haynesville and Niobrara where an increase in the shale oil production is followed a decrease in WTI crude oil prices.pre-print1644 K

Lithium: Production and Estimated Consumption. Evidence of Persistence.

Understanding the behavior of the lithium supply and the estimated consumption and flows is important for social and economic development. We focus on estimating persistence and for this purpose, we use techniques based on fractional integration. The empirical results provide evidence of mean reversion for the data corresponding to the global lithium production from 1925 to 2014 but not for U.S. lithium-related series such as production (1900 – 2008), estimated consumption (1900 – 2014), imports (1960 – 2015), and exports (1971 – 2015).pre-print525 K