Expected job loss in East Germany shortly before German unification

We investigate expectations concerning future job loss in the former German Democratic Republic shortly before the economic, monetary and social union in July 1990. In order to model these expectations, we take detailed account of individual heterogeneity, the availability and interpretation of information, and the economic and social environment of the individual. Our data base is the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) East. We find that, with some exceptions, East Germans hold expectations comparable to those held by individuals having experienced a market economy, which is surprising given the lack of such an economy in the previous German Democratic Republic. Since these expectations are only observed ordinally, an adequate estimation method is the ordinal logit model. The corresponding stochastic assumptions are tested extensively using pseudo-Lagrange multiplier tests against omitted variables, nonlinearity, asymmetry of distribution and heteroscedasticity. Furthermore, we apply Hausman tests to check the validity of the classification of the endogenous variable. --

Labour market flexibility and inequality: the changing risk patterns of temporary employment in Germany

"While previous research on temporary employment has shown that certain labour market groups are more likely than others to enter this kind of inferior employment, there has been only little research on the question to what extent these allocation patterns have changed over time. Against the background of pervasive structural and institutional changes that affected the German labour market since the beginning of the 1990s there are reasons to believe that allocation patterns have changed as well. However, on a theoretical level there are different views regarding the quality of these changes. Whereas some scholars argue that social inequality is enhanced along the existing lines of social division, others maintain that risks are less and less socially structured. To evaluate this question empirically we use data from the German Mikrozensus for the period from 1989 to 2005. The analysis reveals that, first, on the aggregate level the overall share of temporary employment has only slightly increased during that time period. Second, as indicated by the results, particularly those individuals belonging to groups that already have had a weak labour market position were increasingly allocated to temporary jobs. Third, contrary to the thesis of a de-structuration of social inequality, the findings reveal no decline in the overall importance of 'classical' determinants of temporary employment relationships." (author's abstract

Was kann man aus dem gegenwärtigen Entwicklungsstand der Beratung für die Gestaltung kommunikativer Sozialforschung lernen?

Die Analyse der offenbar unvermeidlichen Rückkopplungsphänomene, die in Gesprächen gänzlich unabhängig von den Intentionen der Individuen ablaufen, weist Beratern und Wissenschaftlern den Weg zu einem neuen Verständnis sozialer Kommunikation: Nicht als Verknüpfung psychischer Akte, sondern als latente Spiegelung sozialer Strukturen, Dynamiken, Umweltbeziehungen und Identitätskonzepte. In diesem Zusammenhang wird das eigene methodische Selbstverständnis beschrieben, und der Ablauf der kommunikativen Sozialforschung wird skizziert. Ihre Besonderheit liegt darin, dass sie nicht nur soziale Kommunikation zum Gegenstand hat, sondern dass sie den gesamten Forschungsprozess von der Konstitution des Forschungssystems über die Datenerhebung und Auswertung bis hin zur Rückkoppelung der Ergebnisse in die alltägliche Praxis als Kommunikation gestaltet

Technologische Entwicklung, Schriftkultur und Schriftsprache als technologisches System

Die Autoren führen in diesem Aufsatz den Nachweis, daß technologische Entwicklung in den Ländern der Dritten Welt ohne den Übergang zur Schriftkultur nicht möglich ist. "Technologien lassen sich nicht auf jede Kultur aufpropfen, um dann weiter zu wachsen." Inwiefern Schriftkultur und Sprache Voraussetzung von technologischer Adaption und Technologieentwicklung sind, wird im ersten Abschnitt dargelegt. Anschließend wird ausgeführt, daß Schriftsprache als ein technologisches System mit einer Eigengesetztlichkeit betrachtet werden muß. "Große Alphabetisierungskampagnen bestimmten in den 60er Jahren die erste große entwicklungspolitische Euphorie. Sie scheiterten, mußten zwangsläufig scheitern, denn Verschriftlichung setzt Sprachausbau und setzt spezifische Institutionen voraus, die Schriftsprache stabilisieren." Von diesen institutionellen Voraussetzungen handelt der dritte Abschnitt. (psz

Economic Insecurity and Fertility. The Effects of Job Insecurity and Unemployment on Family Formation in East and West Germany

Vor dem Hintergrund der jüngsten, teils kontroversen wissenschaftlichen Debatte zur Auswirkung ökonomischer Unsicherheit auf die Familiengründung analysieren wir in diesem Beitrag die Fertilitätskonsequenzen der zwei wohl wichtigsten Indikatoren ökonomischer Unsicherheit - befristeter Beschäftigungsverhältnisse und Arbeits¬losigkeit - in Ost- und Westdeutschland. Basierend auf Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) der Jahre 1995-2007 können wir weder für ost- noch für westdeutsche Frauen nachweisen, dass befristete Arbeits¬verhältnisse zu einem Aufschub der ersten Mutterschaft führen. Ebenfalls lassen sich keine Wirkungsunterschiede befristeter Beschäftigung nach individuellem Bildungsniveau, dem Qualifikationsgrad der beruflichen Position oder dem Wirtschaftssektor feststellen. Phasen von Arbeitslosigkeit hingegen führen sowohl in Ost- als auch in Westdeutschland zu einer Verschiebung der ersten Geburt. Allerdings unterscheiden sich die Fertilitätsmuster zwischen Ost- und Westdeutschland dahingehend, dass in Westdeutschland Familien¬gründungen häufig dann verschoben werden, wenn der männliche Partner von Arbeitslosigkeit betroffen ist, während der Prozess der Familiengründung in Ostdeutschland weniger von der Erwerbs¬situation des männlichen Partners als vielmehr von der Arbeitsmarktlage der Frau betroffen zu sein scheint.Against the background of recent scientific discussions about the impact of economic insecurity on family formation, we have analyzed the fertility consequences of two very important indicators of economic insecurity - limited contracts and unemployment - in East and West Germany. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (1995-2007) our results show that for women limited contracts do not lead to postponement of reproduction. Also, the effects of limited contracts do not differ across educational level, qualification level of the occupational position, or economic sector. In contrast to these results, periods of unemployment seem to increase the risk of postponement of reproduction both in East and in West Germany. However, these fertility patterns turn out to be rather different between East and West Germany: While in West Germany family formation is postponed especially when the male partner is unemployed, the process of family formation in East Germany is above all influenced by the employment situation of the woman and not so much by that of her partner

Wave 2

The survey covers the following countries: France, Germany, Hungary, Israel, Latvia, Poland, Serbia, Thailand, Turkey, and United States of America. Most but not all items of the wave 1 questionnaire are included in wave 2.The comparative public opinion survey “Public Attitudes towards the Liberal Script” (PALS) is part of the Cluster of Excellence "Contestations of the Liberal Script (SCRIPTS)". The goal of PALS is to measure citizen attitudes towards what we call the liberal script, a specific understanding of how society should be organized around liberal principles. After having conducted a first wave in 26 countries from December 2021 to July 2022, conducting a second wave in some countries served the following purposes: 1. Re-running the survey with as many respondents from wave 1 as possible in selected countries to explore whether individual attitudes toward the liberal script have changed over time (panel data), 2. interviewing additional respondents from selected countries of wave 1 to be able to make statements about the change of public opinion in these countries (cross-sectional data at two points in time), 3. adding additional questions to address, in particular, the changing global situation with regard to Russia’s war against Ukraine, and 4. extending the geographical coverage to four new countries, namely, Thailand, Israel, Serbia, and Hungary which can be described as battlegrounds concerning the liberal script

The association between experimental and clinical pain measures among persons with fibromyalgia and chronic fatigue syndrome

Evoked or experimental pain is often used as a model for the study of clinical pain, yet there are little data regarding the relationship between the two. In addition, there are few data regarding the types of stimuli and stimulus intensities that are most closely related to clinical pain. In this study, 36 subjects with fibromyalgia (FM), chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), or both syndromes were administered measures of clinical pain and underwent a dolorimetry evaluation. Subjects also underwent experimental pain testing utilizing heat and pressure stimulation. Stimulation levels evoking low, moderate and high sensory intensity, and comparable levels of unpleasantness, were determined for both types of stimuli using random staircase methods. Clinical pain was assessed using visual analogue ratings and the short form of the McGill Pain Questionnaire (MPQ). Ratings of heat pain sensation were not significantly associated with clinical pain ratings, with the exception of unpleasantness ratings at high stimulus intensities. Pain threshold and tolerance as assessed by dolorimetry were significantly associated with average measures of clinical pain. Both intensity and unpleasantness ratings of pressure delivered using random staircase methods were significantly associated with clinical pain at low, moderate and high levels, and the strength of the association was greater at increasingly noxious stimulus intensities. These findings suggest that random pressure stimulation as an experimental pain model in these populations more closely reflects the clinical pain for these conditions. These findings merit consideration when designing experimental studies of clinical pain associated with FM and CFS.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/90175/1/j.ejpain.2006.02.001.pd

Arbeitsqualität in Zeitarbeitsverhältnissen: Abschlussbericht - März 2015

Der vorliegende Projektbericht bietet eine umfassende Analyse zur Arbeitszufriedenheit und Arbeitsqualität in der Zeitarbeit, sowie potenzieller Einflussfaktoren und damit Anforderungen an das Personalmanagement auf dem betrachteten Teilarbeitsmarkt. Von besonderem Interesse sind hierbei die betrieblichen Strukturmerkmale und Vorgehensweisen bei der Gestaltung des Verleihprozesses und des Personalmanagements in der Zeitarbeit sowie mögliche betriebliche Ansatzpunkte zur Verbesserung der Arbeitsbedingungen sowie der Arbeitszufriedenheit und Arbeitsqualität. Die empirische Grundlage der Untersuchung bildete die kombinierte Auswertung qualitativer Fallstudien, eigener repräsentativer Befragungen unter Zeitarbeitsbetrieben und Zeitarbeitnehmern/-innen sowie zentraler Ergebnisse zweier weiterer Erhebungen, die ebenfalls im Auftrag des BMAS zu verschiedenen Aspekten der Arbeitsqualität durchgeführt wurden

Scope for Credit Risk Diversification

This paper considers a simple model of credit risk and derives the limit distribution of losses under different assumptions regarding the structure of systematic risk and the nature of exposure or firm heterogeneity. We derive fat-tailed correlated loss distributions arising from Gaussian risk factors and explore the potential for risk diversification. Where possible the results are generalised to non-Gaussian distributions. The theoretical results indicate that if the firm parameters are heterogeneous but come from a common distribution, for sufficiently large portfolios there is no scope for further risk reduction through active portfolio management. However, if the firm parameters come from different distributions, then further risk reduction is possible by changing the portfolio weights. In either case, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to underestimation of expected losses. But, once expected losses are controlled for, neglecting parameter heterogeneity can lead to overestimation of risk, whether measured by unexpected loss or value-at-risk