The 2015-2016 El Nino and the Response of the Carbon Cycle: Findings from NASA's OCO-2 Mission

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important mode of tropical climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. Correlations between atmospheric CO2 growth rate and ENSO activity are relatively well known but the magnitude of this correlation, the contribution from tropical marine vs. terrestrial flux components, and the causal mechanisms, are poorly constrained in space and time. The launch of NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission in July 2014 was rather timely given the development of strong ENSO conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2015-2016. In this presentation, we will discuss how the high-density observations from OCO-2 provided us with a novel dataset to resolve the linkages between El Nino and atmospheric CO2. Along with information from in situ observations of CO2 from NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) project and atmospheric CO2 from the Scripps CO2 Program, and other remote-sensing missions, we are able to piece together the time dependent response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the Tropics. Our findings confirm the hypothesis from studies following the 1997-1998 El Nino event that an early reduction in CO2 outgassing from the tropical Pacific Ocean is later reversed by enhanced net CO2 emissions from the terrestrial biosphere. This implies that a component of the interannual variability (IAV) in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, which has typically been used to constrain the climate sensitivity of tropical land carbon fluxes, is strongly influenced and modified by ocean fluxes during the early phase of the ENSO event. Our analyses shed further light on the understanding of the marine vs. terrestrial partitioning of tropical carbon fluxes during El Nino events, their relative contributions to the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate, and provide clues about the sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate forcing on interannual time scales

Intensity and timing of physical activity in relation to postmenopausal breast cancer risk: the prospective NIH-AARP diet and health study.

BACKGROUND: Despite strong evidence of an inverse association of physical activity with postmenopausal breast cancer risk, whether a certain intensity or time of life of physical activity is most effective for lowering breast cancer risk is not known. METHODS: In 118,899 postmenopausal women in the prospective NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study, we examined the relations of light and moderate-to-vigorous intensity physical activity during four periods of life ("historical": ages 15-18, 19-29, 35-39 years; "recent": past 10 years) to postmenopausal breast cancer risk. Physical activity was assessed by self-report at baseline, and 4287 incident breast cancers were identified over 6.6 years of follow-up. RESULTS: In age-adjusted and multivariate Cox regression models, >7 hours/week of moderate-to-vigorous activity during the past 10 years was associated with 16% reduced risk of postmenopausal breast cancer (RR:0.84; 95%CI:0.76,0.93) compared with inactivity. The association remained statistically significant after adjustment for BMI (RR:0.87; 95%CI:0.78,0.96). Neither moderate-to-vigorous activity during other periods of life nor light intensity activity during any period of life was related to breast cancer risk, and associations did not vary by tumor characteristics. CONCLUSION: A high level of recent, but not historical, physical activity of moderate-to-vigorous intensity is associated with reduced postmenopausal breast cancer risk. More precise recall of recent physical activity than activity in the distant past is one possible explanation for our findings.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Associations of Genetic Ancestry with Terminal Duct Lobular Unit Involution among Healthy Women

Reduced age-related terminal duct lobular unit (TDLU) involution has been linked to increased breast cancer risk and triple-negative breast cancer. Associations of TDLU involution levels with race and ethnicity remain incompletely explored. Herein, we examined the association between genetic ancestry and TDLU involution in normal breast tissue donated by 2014 healthy women in the United States. Women of African ancestry were more likely than European women to have increased TDLU counts (odds ratio [OR](trend) = 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07 to 1.74), acini counts per TDLU (OR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.06 to 2.03), and median TDLU span (OR(trend) = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.91), indicating lower involution, whereas East Asian descendants were associated with decreased TDLU counts (OR(trend) = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.35 to 0.78) after controlling for potential confounders. These associations are consistent with the racial variations in incidence rates of triple-negative breast cancer in the United States and suggest opportunities for future work examining whether TDLU involution may mediate the racial differences in subtype-specific breast cancer risk

The 2015-2016 El Nino and the Response of the Carbon Cycle: Findings from NASA's OCO-2 Mission

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important mode of tropical climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. Correlations between atmospheric CO2 growth rate and ENSO activity are relatively well known but the magnitude of this correlation, the contribution from tropical marine vs. terrestrial flux components, and the causal mechanisms, are poorly constrained in space and time. The launch of NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission in July 2014 was rather timely given the development of strong ENSO conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2015-2016. In this presentation, we will discuss how the high-density observations from OCO-2 provided us with a novel dataset to resolve the linkages between El Nino and atmospheric CO2. Along with information from in situ observations of pCO2 from NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) project and atmospheric CO2 from the Scripps CO2 Program, and other remote-sensing missions, we are able to piece together the time dependent response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the Tropics. Our findings confirm the hypothesis from studies following the 1997-1998 El Nino event that an early reduction in CO2 outgassing from the tropical Pacific Ocean is later reversed by enhanced net CO2 emissions from the terrestrial biosphere. This implies that a component of the interannual variability (IAV) in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, which has typically been used to constrain the climate sensitivity of tropical land carbon fluxes, is strongly influenced and modified by ocean fluxes during the early phase of the ENSO event. Our analyses shed further light on the understanding of the marine vs. terrestrial partitioning of tropical carbon fluxes during El Nino events, their relative contributions to the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate, and provide clues about the sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate forcing on interannual time scales

Relation of Serum Estrogen Metabolites with Terminal Duct Lobular Unit Involution Among Women Undergoing Diagnostic Image-Guided Breast Biopsy

Higher levels of circulating estrogens and estrogen metabolites (EMs) have been associated with higher breast cancer risk. In breast tissues, reduced levels of terminal duct lobular unit (TDLU) involution, as reflected by higher numbers of TDLUs and acini per TDLU, have also been linked to elevated breast cancer risk. However, it is unknown whether reduced TDLU involution mediates the risk associated with circulating EMs. In a cross-sectional analysis of 94 premenopausal and 92 postmenopausal women referred for clinical breast biopsy at an academic facility in Vermont, we examined the associations of 15 EMs, quantified using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry, with the number of TDLUs and acini count/TDLU using zero-inflated Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator and ordinal logistic regression models, respectively. All analyses were stratified by menopausal status and adjusted for potential confounders. Among premenopausal women, comparing the highest vs. the lowest tertiles, levels of unconjugated estradiol (risk ratio (RR) = 1.74, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-2.87, p trend = 0.03), 2-hydroxyestrone (RR = 1.74, 95 % CI = 1.01-3.01, p trend = 0.04), and 4-hydroxyestrone (RR = 1.74, 95 % CI = 0.99-3.06, p trend = 0.04) were associated with significantly higher TDLU count. Among postmenopausal women, higher levels of estradiol (RR = 2.09, 95 % CI = 1.01-4.30, p trend = 0.04) and 16α-hydroxyestrone (RR = 2.27, 95 % CI = 1.29-3.99, p trend = 0.02) were significantly associated with higher TDLU count. Among postmenopausal women, higher levels of EMs, specifically conjugated estrone and 2- and 4-pathway catechols, were also associated with higher acini count/TDLU. Our data suggest that higher levels of serum EMs are generally associated with lower levels of TDLU involution

Contrasting carbon cycle responses of the tropical continents to the 2015–2016 El Niño

The 2015–2016 El Niño led to historically high temperatures and low precipitation over the tropics, while the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_2) was the largest on record. Here we quantify the response of tropical net biosphere exchange, gross primary production, biomass burning, and respiration to these climate anomalies by assimilating column CO_2, solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, and carbon monoxide observations from multiple satellites. Relative to the 2011 La Niña, the pantropical biosphere released 2.5 ± 0.34 gigatons more carbon into the atmosphere in 2015, consisting of approximately even contributions from three tropical continents but dominated by diverse carbon exchange processes. The heterogeneity of the carbon-exchange processes indicated here challenges previous studies that suggested that a single dominant process determines carbon cycle interannual variability