The impact of the demographic transition on dengue in Thailand: Insights from a statistical analysis and mathematical modeling

Background: An increase in the average age of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases has been reported in Thailand. The cause of this increase is not known. Possible explanations include a reduction in transmission due to declining mosquito populations, declining contact between human and mosquito, and changes in reporting. We propose that a demographic shift toward lower birth and death rates has reduced dengue transmission and lengthened the interval between large epidemics. Methods and Findings: Using data from each of the 72 provinces of Thailand, we looked for associations between force of infection (a measure of hazard, defined as the rate per capita at which susceptible individuals become infected) and demographic and climactic variables. We estimated the force of infection from the age distribution of cases from 1985 to 2005. We find that the force of infection has declined by 2% each year since a peak in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Contrary to recent findings suggesting that the incidence of DHF has increased in Thailand, we find a small but statistically significant decline in DHF incidence since 1985 in a majority of provinces. The strongest predictor of the change in force of infection and the mean force of infection is the median age of the population. Using mathematical simulations of dengue transmission we show that a reduced birth rate and a shift in the population's age structure can explain the shift in the age distribution of cases, reduction of the force of infection, and increase in the periodicity of multiannual oscillations of DHF incidence in the absence of other changes. Conclusions: Lower birth and death rates decrease the flow of susceptible individuals into the population and increase the longevity of immune individuals. The increase in the proportion of the population that is immune increases the likelihood that an infectious mosquito will feed on an immune individual, reducing the force of infection. Though the force of infection has decreased by half, we find that the critical vaccination fraction has not changed significantly, declining from an average of 85% to 80%. Clinical guidelines should consider the impact of continued increases in the age of dengue cases in Thailand. Countries in the region lagging behind Thailand in the demographic transition may experience the same increase as their population ages. The impact of demographic changes on the force of infection has been hypothesized for other diseases, but, to our knowledge, this is the first observation of this phenomenon

Assessing Walking Ability in People with HTLV-1-Associated Myelopathy Using the 10 Meter Timed Walk and the 6 Minute Walk Test

Five to ten million persons, are infected by HTLV-1 of which 3% will develop HTLV-1-associated myelopathy (HAM) a chronic, disabling inflammation of the spinal cord. Walking, a fundamental, complex, multi-functional task is demanding of multiple body systems. Restricted walking ability compromises activity and participation levels in people with HAM (pwHAM). Therapy aims to improve mobility but validated measures are required to assess change.Prospective observational study.To explore walking capacity in pwHAM, walking endurance using the 6 minute walk (6MW), and gait speed, using the timed 10m walk (10mTW).Out-patient setting in an inner London Teaching hospital.Prospective documentation of 10mTW and 6MW distance; walking aid usage and pain scores measured twice, a median of 18 months apart.Data analysis was completed for twenty-six pwHAM, (8♂; 18♀; median age: 57.8 years; median disease duration: 8 years). Median time at baseline to: complete 10m was 17.5 seconds, versus 21.4 seconds at follow up; 23% completed the 6MW compared to 42% at follow up and a median distance of 55m was covered compared to 71m at follow up. Using the 10mTW velocity to predict the 6MW distance, overestimated the distance walked in 6 minutes (p<0.01). Functional decline over time was captured using the functional ambulation categories.The 10mTW velocity underestimated the degree of disability. Gait speed usefully predicts functional domains, shows direction of functional change and comparison with published healthy age matched controls show that these patients have significantly slower gait speeds. The measured differences over 18 months were sufficient to reliably detect change and therefore these assessments can be useful to detect improvement or deterioration within broader disability grades. Walking capacity in pwHAM should be measured using the 10mTW for gait speed and the 6MW for endurance

Fanconi anaemia with bilateral diffuse pulmonary arterio venous fistulae: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We report a patient with cytogenetically confirmed Fanconi anaemia with associated diffuse bilateral pulmonary arterio-venous fistulae. This is only the second reported case of diffuse pulmonary arterio-venous fistulae with Fanconi anaemia.</p> <p>Case Presentation</p> <p>A 16 year old Sri Lankan boy, with a cytogenetically confirmed Fanconi anaemia was admitted to University Medical Unit, National Hospital of Sri Lanka for further assessment and treatment. Both central and peripheral cyanosis plus clubbing were noted on examination. The peripheral saturation was persistently low on room air and did not improve with supplementary Oxygen. Contrast echocardiography failed to demonstrate an intra cardiac shunt but showed early crossover of contrast, suggesting the possibility of pulmonary arterio-venous fistulae. Computed tomography pulmonary angiogram was inconclusive. Subsequent right heart catheterisation revealed bilateral diffuse arterio-venous fistulae not amenable for device closure or surgical intervention.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>To our knowledge, this is the second reported patient with diffuse pulmonary arterio-venous fistulae associated with Fanconi anaemia. We report this case to create awareness among clinicians regarding this elusive association. We recommend screening patients with Fanconi anaemia using contrast echocardiography at the time of assessment with transthoracic echocardiogram. Though universal screening may be impossible given the cost constraints, such screening should at least be performed in patients with clinical evidence of desaturation or when a therapeutic option such as haematopoietic stem cell transplantation is considered. Treatment of pulmonary arteriovenous fistulae would improve patient outcome as desaturation by shunting worsens the anaemic symptoms by reducing the oxygen carrying capacity of blood.</p

Can We Really Prevent Suicide?

Every year, suicide is among the top 20 leading causes of death globally for all ages. Unfortunately, suicide is difficult to prevent, in large part because the prevalence of risk factors is high among the general population. In this review, clinical and psychological risk factors are examined and methods for suicide prevention are discussed. Prevention strategies found to be effective in suicide prevention include means restriction, responsible media coverage, and general public education, as well identification methods such as screening, gatekeeper training, and primary care physician education. Although the treatment for preventing suicide is difficult, follow-up that includes pharmacotherapy, psychotherapy, or both may be useful. However, prevention methods cannot be restricted to the individual. Community, social, and policy interventions will also be essentia

Anti-ischemic therapy and stress testing: pathophysiologic, diagnostic and prognostic implications

Anti-ischemic therapy, in particular beta-blockers, is the most commonly employed drug for the control of myocardial ischemia in patients with stable coronary artery disease. Its widespread use also in patients with suspected coronary artery disease has important practical, clinical diagnostic and prognostic implications because diagnostic tests are heavily influenced by its effects. In the present review, the pathophysiological mechanisms of ischemia protection by antianginal therapy are described. Not all stressors are created equal in front of the different classes of antianginal drugs and on their turn the different classes of drugs exert different levels of protection on inducible ischemia. Several clinical implications can be drawn: From the diagnostic viewpoint antianginal therapy decreases test sensitivity, offsetting the real ischemic burden for a too high percentage of false negative tests. From the prognostic viewpoint test positivity in medical therapy identifies a group of subjects at higher risk of experiencing cardiac death and positivity on medical therapy can be considered a parameter of ischemia severity. Nonetheless in patients with known coronary artery disease the ability of antianginal therapy to modify the ischemic threshold at stress testing represent a powerful means to assess therapy efficacy. From a practical viewpoint, the use of antianginal therapy at time of testing has advantages and disadvantages which are largely dependent on the purpose a test is performed: if the purpose of testing is to diagnose ischemia, it should be performed in the absence of antianginal medications. If the purpose of testing is to assess the protective effects of antianginal therapy, the test should be performed on medications

Life histories of the copepods Pseudocalanus minutus, P. acuspes (Calanoida) and Oithona similis (Cyclopoida) in the Arctic Kongsfjorden (Svalbard)

The year-round variation in abundance and stage-specific (vertical) distribution of Pseudocalanus minutus and Oithona similis was studied in the Arctic Kongsfjorden, Svalbard. Maxima of vertically integrated abundance were found in November with 111,297 ind m−2 for P. minutus and 704,633 ind m−2 for O. similis. Minimum abundances comprised 1,088 ind m−2 and 4,483 ind m−2 in June for P. minutus and O. similis, respectively. The congener P. acuspes only occurred in low numbers (15–213 ind m−2), and successful reproduction was debatable. Reproduction of P. minutus took place in May/June, and stage distribution revealed a 1-year life cycle with copepodids CIII, CIV, and CV as the overwintering stages. Oithona similis exhibited two main reproductive peaks in June and August/September, respectively. Moreover, it reproduced more or less continuously throughout the whole year with all stages occurring during the entire sampling period, suggesting two generations per year. Both species migrated towards greater depth in November, but O. similis preferred to stay longer in the upper 100 m as compared to Pseudocalanus. The reproduction of the two species in Kongsfjorden seemed to be linked to phytoplankton dynamics

Satellite remote sensing data can be used to model marine microbial metabolite turnover

Sampling ecosystems, even at a local scale, at the temporal and spatial resolution necessary to capture natural variability in microbial communities are prohibitively expensive. We extrapolated marine surface microbial community structure and metabolic potential from 72 16S rRNA amplicon and 8 metagenomic observations using remotely sensed environmental parameters to create a system-scale model of marine microbial metabolism for 5904 grid cells (49 km2) in the Western English Chanel, across 3 years of weekly averages. Thirteen environmental variables predicted the relative abundance of 24 bacterial Orders and 1715 unique enzyme-encoding genes that encode turnover of 2893 metabolites. The genes’ predicted relative abundance was highly correlated (Pearson Correlation 0.72, P-value <10−6) with their observed relative abundance in sequenced metagenomes. Predictions of the relative turnover (synthesis or consumption) of CO2 were significantly correlated with observed surface CO2 fugacity. The spatial and temporal variation in the predicted relative abundances of genes coding for cyanase, carbon monoxide and malate dehydrogenase were investigated along with the predicted inter-annual variation in relative consumption or production of ~3000 metabolites forming six significant temporal clusters. These spatiotemporal distributions could possibly be explained by the co-occurrence of anaerobic and aerobic metabolisms associated with localized plankton blooms or sediment resuspension, which facilitate the presence of anaerobic micro-niches. This predictive model provides a general framework for focusing future sampling and experimental design to relate biogeochemical turnover to microbial ecology

Changing perceptions of hunger on a high nutrient density diet

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>People overeat because their hunger directs them to consume more calories than they require. The purpose of this study was to analyze the changes in experience and perception of hunger before and after participants shifted from their previous usual diet to a high nutrient density diet.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was a descriptive study conducted with 768 participants primarily living in the United States who had changed their dietary habits from a low micronutrient to a high micronutrient diet. Participants completed a survey rating various dimensions of hunger (physical symptoms, emotional symptoms, and location) when on their previous usual diet versus the high micronutrient density diet. Statistical analysis was conducted using non-parametric tests.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Highly significant differences were found between the two diets in relation to all physical and emotional symptoms as well as the location of hunger. Hunger was not an unpleasant experience while on the high nutrient density diet, was well tolerated and occurred with less frequency even when meals were skipped. Nearly 80% of respondents reported that their experience of hunger had changed since starting the high nutrient density diet, with 51% reporting a dramatic or complete change in their experience of hunger.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A high micronutrient density diet mitigates the unpleasant aspects of the experience of hunger even though it is lower in calories. Hunger is one of the major impediments to successful weight loss. Our findings suggest that it is not simply the caloric content, but more importantly, the micronutrient density of a diet that influences the experience of hunger. It appears that a high nutrient density diet, after an initial phase of adjustment during which a person experiences "toxic hunger" due to withdrawal from pro-inflammatory foods, can result in a sustainable eating pattern that leads to weight loss and improved health. A high nutrient density diet provides benefits for long-term health as well as weight loss. Because our findings have important implications in the global effort to control rates of obesity and related chronic diseases, further studies are needed to confirm these preliminary results.</p

A comparison of low-dose risperidone to paroxetine in the treatment of panic attacks: a randomized, single-blind study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Because a large proportion of patients with panic attacks receiving approved pharmacotherapy do not respond or respond poorly to medication, it is important to identify additional therapeutic strategies for the management of panic symptoms. This article describes a randomized, rater-blind study comparing low-dose risperidone to standard-of-care paroxetine for the treatment of panic attacks.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Fifty six subjects with a history of panic attacks were randomized to receive either risperidone or paroxetine. The subjects were then followed for eight weeks. Outcome measures included the Panic Disorder Severity Scale (PDSS), the Hamilton Anxiety Scale (Ham-A), the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (Ham-D), the Sheehan Panic Anxiety Scale-Patient (SPAS-P), and the Clinical Global Impression scale (CGI).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All subjects demonstrated a reduction in both the frequency and severity of panic attacks regardless of treatment received. Statistically significant improvements in rating scale scores for both groups were identified for the PDSS, the Ham-A, the Ham-D, and the CGI. There was no difference between treatment groups in the improvement in scores on the measures PDSS, Ham-A, Ham-D, and CGI. Post hoc tests suggest that subjects receiving risperidone may have a quicker clinical response than subjects receiving paroxetine.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We can identify no difference in the efficacy of paroxetine and low-dose risperidone in the treatment of panic attacks. Low-dose risperidone appears to be tolerated equally well as paroxetine. Low-dose risperidone may be an effective treatment for anxiety disorders in which panic attacks are a significant component.</p> <p>Trial Registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT100457106</p