Persistency of financial distress amongst Italian households: evidence from dynamic probit models

This paper analyses financial distress among Italian households using the longitudinal component of the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) for the period 1998-2006. It aims to test whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulties is persistent over time. First we review the methodologies for estimating dynamic nonlinear panel data models, drawing attention to the problems to be dealt with to obtain consistent estimators. Specific attention is given to the initial condition problem introduced by the presence of the lagged dependent variable in the set of explanatory variables. Second we provide an in-depth discussion of the alternative approaches proposed in the literature - subjective/qualitative versus quantitative indicators - to identify households in financial distress. We define a quantitative measure of financial distress based on the distribution of net wealth. Finally we apply dynamic probit models to test for true state dependence in financial distress. The estimation uses four different methods: the pooled probit; the random effects probit with exogenous initial conditions; the Heckman model; and the more recent Wooldridge model. The results of all the estimators confirm the null hypothesis of true state dependence and show that, in line with the literature, less sophisticated models, namely pooled and exogenous models, tend to over-estimate this persistence.Difficoltà finanziarie delle famiglie; Modelli probit dinamici su dati panel; Indagine Banca d’Italia sui bilanci familiari; Household financial distress; Dynamic probit models; SHIW.

Persistency of financial distress amongst Italian households: evidence from dynamic probit models

This paper analyses financial distress among Italian households using the longitudinal component of the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) for the period 1998-2006. It aims to test whether the probability of experiencing financial difficulties is persistent over time. First we review the methodologies for estimating dynamic nonlinear panel data models, drawing attention to the problems to be dealt with to obtain consistent estimators. Specific attention is given to the initial condition problem introduced by the presence of the lagged dependent variable in the set of explanatory variables. Second we provide an in-depth discussion of the alternative approaches proposed in the literature - subjective/qualitative versus quantitative indicators - to identify households in financial distress. We define a quantitative measure of financial distress based on the distribution of net wealth. Finally we apply dynamic probit models to test for true state dependence in financial distress. The estimation uses four different methods: the pooled probit; the random effects probit with exogenous initial conditions; the Heckman model; and the more recent Wooldridge model. The results of all the estimators confirm the null hypothesis of true state dependence and show that, in line with the literature, less sophisticated models, namely pooled and exogenous models, tend to over-estimate this persistence

The Worsening of Wage Expectations in Italy: a Study Based on Administrative data

This paper builds on existing studies on the relationship between individual wages, age and experience, and provides new evidence on the determinants of wages in Italy. Using a large panel of individual administrative data, it shows that wage to age profiles for different cohorts of workers are not stable over time: although younger generations of Italian workers are benefiting from higher starting wages than older generations, they face the prospect of lower growth of future earnings. It also confirms the existence of a significant supply effect: the bigger the cohort relative to the active population, the smaller the cohort’s gain in terms of wage levels. Finally, it captures the dependence of individual wages on aggregate labour market conditions: individual wages are shown to be negatively related to the rate of unemployment and positively related to the union wage index.

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Financial fragility across Europe and the US: The role of portfolio choices, household features and economic-institutional setup

This paper investigates households’ financial fragility in twelve European countries and in the US by employing the first wave of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) and the 2010 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), respectively. Financial fragility is defined by taking into account both income constraints and portfolio composition (liquidity and indebtedness). Three main results emerge. First, the estimation of bivariate probit models reveals that in all countries holding an illiquid portfolio increases the likelihood of being financially fragile, while having a mortgage generally reduces it. Second, there are relevant differences among countries in their estimated average probability of financial fragility. Finally, decomposition of these differences by means of counterfactual methods provides evidence of a significant role of the country’s economic-institutional setup in providing a safety net against financial fragility. This is more true in Europe than in the US

Antonin Artaud, Succubi e Supplizi

A cura di Jean-Paul Manganaro e Renata Molinari esce per la Biblioteca Adelphi la traduzione di Suppôts et Suppliciations normalmente considerato come l’ultimo testo, contemporaneo a Van Gogh le suicidé de la société peraltro tradotto, sempre per Adelphi, dallo stesso Manganaro composto da Artaud in vista di una pubblicazione. Testo dalla vicenda editoriale piuttosto complessa e travagliata: nel 1947 la sua stampa è dapprima rifiutata dall’editore Broder per motivi di carattere religioso, poi..

Antonin Artaud, Artaud le Mômo, Ci-gît e altre poesie

Viene qui proposta una breve, ma non per questo meno significativa, antologia delle opere poetiche di Antonin Artaud. Stabilire con certezza all’interno dalla sterminata produzione di questo autore i confini tra cià che è poesia e ciò che non lo è, costituisce già di per sé, un’ardua impresa. Ci si trova d’altronde di fronte al paradosso di un grande poeta che confessa di avere «l’odio profondo per la poesia» e, ciononostante, ogni suo scritto risulta impregnato del ritmo e della musicalità d..