West African convection regimes and their predictability from submonthly forecasts

Recurrent convection regimes are identified during the extended West African Monsoon (WAM) season (May–Nov) using a k − means clustering of 1980–2013 NOAA daily Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), and are well reproduced in 1996–2015 ECMWF week-1 reforecasts despite systematic biases. One regime of broad drying across the Sahel in the early (May–Jun) and late (Oct) WAM is of particular interest regarding the prediction of onset date. This regime is associated with an anticyclonic cell along the Atlantic coast of West Africa leading to a weakened monsoon flow and subsiding anomalies across the Sahel. Teleconnections of this regime with the Indian monsoon sector are identified through modulations of the Walker circulation alongside relationships to MJO phase 3 more than 10 days in advance, when convection is enhanced over the Indian Ocean. Other regimes are associated with westward propagating anomalous convective cells along two distinct wave trains at15◦N and 24◦N during the core (Jul–Sep) and late (Oct–Nov) WAM, respectively, and translate into wet anoma- lies transiting across the Sahel. A regime of broad Sahel wetting in the core WAM, more frequent since the 1990s, is related to global SST warming, agreeing with the observed recovery of Sahel rainfall. ECMWF skill in forecasting regime sequences decreases from week-1 to -4 leads, except in the case of the above-mentioned regime associated with early season dry spells, translating into the potential for skillful WAM onset date predictions. Our analysis suggests that sources of predictability include relationships to the MJO and the Indian monsoon sector, which need to be further examined to benefit subseasonal forecasting efforts in West Africa, and ultimately agricultural planning and food security across the Sahel

Sub‐seasonal teleconnections between convection over the Indian Ocean, the East African long rains and tropical Pacific surface temperatures

Since 1999, the increased frequency of dry conditions over East Africa, particularly during the March–May (MAM) season, has heightened concerns in a region already highly insecure about food. The underlying mechanisms, however, are still not yet fully understood. This article analyses a proxy for daily convection variations over a large region encompassing East Africa and the whole Indian Ocean basin by applying a cluster analysis to more than 30 years of daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). Focusing on the MAM season to investigate relationships with East African long rains, four recurrent convection regimes associated with wet/dry conditions in East Africa are identified. Interestingly, all four regimes are related to western/central Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and rainfall. Wet regimes are associated with cool and dry/warm and wet conditions over the Maritime Continent (MC)/tropical Pacific east of the date line. Dry regimes exhibit opposite SST/rainfall dipole patterns in the Pacific compared to wet regimes, with the Indian Ocean found to modulate impacts on East African rainfall. Significant relationships between off‐equatorial warming in the west Pacific and a more frequent dry regime in May since 1998–1999 suggest an earlier onset of the monsoon and Somali jet, consistent with the recent abrupt shift observed in East African long rains and their modulation at multi‐decadal time scales of the Pacific

Production of Alfalfa Seed in Italy

Alfalfa (Medicago sativa) is considered the largest cultivated forage species in the temperate areas in the world and in Italy covers about 700,000 ha. This species is important for the ability to produce a good quality forage with low input. Alfalfa seed production is spread throughout Italy, France and Spain (Fig. 1). In Italy, about 47% of forage area is planted with alfalfa and the Italian regions where alfalfa seed is mainly produced are Emilia Romagna, Marche and Tuscany (Fig. 2). In 2012 the area for the production of alfalfa seed was 20,906 ha with a seed production of 9,006 tons

Moisture budget analysis of SST-driven decadal Sahel precipitation variability in the twentieth century

It is well known that the Sahel region of Africa is impacted by decadal scale variability in precipitation, driven by global sea surface temperatures. This work demonstrates that the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 is capable of reproducing relationships between Sahelian precipitation variability and Indian and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperature variations on such timescales. Further analysis then constructs a moisture budget breakdown using model output and shows that the change in precipitation minus evaporation in the region is dominated by column integrated moisture convergence due to the mean flow, with the convergence of mass in the atmospheric column mainly responsible. It is concluded that the oceanic forcing of atmospheric mass convergence and divergence to a first order explains the moisture balance patterns in the region. In particular, the anomalous circulation patterns, including net moisture divergence by the mean and transient flows combined with negative moisture advection, together explain the drying of the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century. Diagnosis of moisture budget and circulation components within the main rainbelt and along the monsoon margins show that changes to the mass convergence are related to the magnitude of precipitation that falls in the region, while the advection of dry air is associated with the maximum latitudinal extent of precipitation

A role for tropical tropospheric temperature adjustment to El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the seasonality of monsoonal Indonesia precipitation predictability

We describe the seasonality in the variability and predictability of Indonesian monsoonal climate, dominated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and interpret it in light of theories of the development of the global ENSO teleconnection which explain the evolution of the response of the tropical ocean atmosphere to ENSO’s perturbation. High predictability during the dry and transition seasons, which coincide with ENSO growth, is expected from the coherent large-scale response to ENSO’s initial perturbation. As the tropical ocean-atmosphere equilibrates to ENSO, and ENSO itself begins to decay, its direct influence diminishes, and regional features associated with the delayed response to ENSO become more prominent. Consistent with this interpretation, in a preliminary observational analysis of station data over Jawa we find that predictability is high during the growth phase of ENSO. We also find that at these regional scales there may be more predictability than previously thought as ENSO decays. Finally, we show that a simple one-tier prediction system, i.e., a system where the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric anomalies is internally consistent, better captures the intrinsic coupled nature of the ENSO teleconnection, compared to a two-tier system where the ocean forces the atmosphere, but does not respond to its feedback

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons

Review of Downscaling Methodologies for Africa Climate Applications

Downscaling is the term used to describe the various methods used to translate the climate projections from coarse resolution GCMs to finer resolutions deemed more useful for assessing impacts. Projections of future climate are produced using complex, coupled atmosphere-ocean models (GCMs). The GCMs are most reliable at the continental scale. Due to the inherent uncertainty of the climate system and the inevitable existence of model errors, multi-model ensembling is the recommended approach for characterizing expected climate changes. As downscaling is dependent on the ability of GCMs to successfully project the climate change signal, it is limited to where that signal is clear. Assessments of climate change in Africa indicate some consensus of reduced winter rainfall in southern Africa, increased annual rainfall in east Africa and uncertainty for the rest of Africa. Selection of GCMs that "do better" over Africa, or any region, is difficult and probably not warranted, given the general parity in model skill and the difficulty in identifying which models are more skillful. Ensemble means or medians offer the highest level of projection accuracy. Downscaling approaches are generally categorized as dynamical, using regional climate models, and statistical, using empirical relationships. However, dynamical downscaling often includes statistical modeling in the form of "bias correction." Dynamical downscaling is useful for incorporating topographic features, such as strong orography, and land use and vegetation. It is recommended where those features play a significant role in regional climate. However, computational time and the uncertainties that accompany complex models outweigh the benefits of dynamical downscaling where these features are not significant. The spatial resolution that can be achieved is on the order of tens of kilometers. Statistical downscaling is simpler and more efficient than dynamical downscaling. It is preferred where estimates of specific variables, especially at point locations, are sought for input to sector models (e.g., hydrologic models) or decision making. However, statistical modeling can mask a true understanding of regional climate dynamics and estimates may be overconfident. In summary, downscaling is best understood as an attempt to increase the understanding of climate change influences at the regional scale. In that context, a variety of methodologies should be explored, using all tools possible to increase that understanding. A set of "Best Practices" is recommended for pursuing this effort

Understanding Pacific Ocean influence on interannual precipitation variability in the Sahel

Moisture budget decomposition is performed for the Sahel (10°–20°N and 20°W–40°E) in order to understand the processes that govern regional hydroclimate variability on interannual time scales and frame them in the context of their primary ocean driver. Results show that warm conditions in the Eastern Tropical Pacific remotely force anomalously dry conditions primarily through affecting the low-troposphere mass divergence field. This behavior is related to increased subsidence over the tropical Atlantic and into the Sahel and an anomalous westward flow of moisture from the continent, both resulting in a coherent drying pattern. Understanding the physical processes relating remote sea surface temperature anomalies to atmospheric circulation changes and the resulting complex local convergence patterns is important for advancing seasonal prediction of precipitation over West Africa

Effect of carbamide peroxide-based bleaching agents containing fluoride or calcium on tensile strength of human enamel

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of carbamide peroxide-based bleaching agents (CPG) containing fluoride (CF) or calcium (CCa) on the ultimate tensile strength of enamel (UTS). METHOD: A "cube-like" resin composite structure was built-up on the occlusal surface of twenty-two sound third molars to facilitate specimen preparation for the micro-tensile test. The restored teeth were serially sectioned in buccal-lingual direction in slices with approximate 0.7 mm thickness. Each slice was trimmed with a fine diamond bur to reduce the buccal, internal slope enamel of the cusps to a dumb-bell shape with a cross-sectional area at the "neck" of less than 0.5 mm². The samples were randomly divided into 12 groups (n=11). The control groups were not submitted to the bleaching regimen. Specimens were treated with 10% CPG gel or with 10% CPG formulations containing CF (0.2% and 0.5%) or CCa (0.05% and 0.2%). Bleached groups received the application of the 10% CPGs for 6 hours/day at 37º C, during 14 consecutive days and were stored in artificial saliva (AS) or 100% relative humidity (RH) among each application. After bleaching, specimens were tested with the microtensile method at 0.5 mm/min. Data were analyzed by two-way ANOVA and Tukey test (5%). RESULTS: No significant difference was observed between groups stored in AS or RH. Specimens treated with CF or CCa presented similar UTS as unbleached control groups. CONCLUSION: Either 10% CPG formulations containing CF or CCa can preserve the UTS after bleaching regimen.OBJETIVO: O propósito deste estudo foi avaliar os efeitos de agents clareadores à base de peróxido de carbamida (CPG) contendo fluoreto (CF) e cálcio (CCa) na resistência à tração do esmalte (UTS). MÉTODO: Um bloco de resina composta foi confeccionada na superfície oclusal de vinte e dois terceiros molars hígidos para facilitar a preparação dos espécimes para o teste de micro-tração. Os dentes restaurados foram seccionados com disco diamantado no sentido vestíbulo-lingual em fatias de aproximadamente 0,7 mm de espessura. Com uma ponta diamantada, foi realizada uma constrição na região de esmalte da vertente oclusal interna. Os espécimes apresentaram aproximadamente 0,5 mm² de área na secção transversal da região de constrição e foram divididos em 12 grupos (n=11). Os grupos controles não foram submetidos ao regime clareador e os experimentais foram tratados com gel de CPG 10% ou com formulações de CPG 10% contendo CF (0,2% e 0,5%) ou CCa (0,05% e 0,2%). Os grupos clareadores receberam a aplicação dos CPGs por 6 horas/dia a 37ºC, durante 14 dias consecutivos e foram armazenados em saliva artificial (AS) ou em umidade relativa 100% (RH), entre as aplicações do gel clareador. Após o clareamento, os espécimes foram testados através do método de micro-tração (0,5 mm/min). Os dados foram analisados pela ANOVA (2 fatores) e teste Tukey (5%). RESULTADOS: Nenhuma diferença foi observada entre os grupos armazenados em AS ou RH. Os espécimes tratados com CPG com CF ou Cca apresentaram similar UTS aos grupos controles não clareados. CONCLUSÃO: Ambos CPGs 10% CF or CCa não alteraram a UTS após o tratamento clareador