Near future climate change projections with implications for the agricultural sector of three major Mediterranean islands

AbstractThe paper presents the analysis of a sub-set of high-resolution bias-adjusted simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, in order to examine the changes in the mean climate and the extremes in three Mediterranean islands, namely, Sicily, Crete and Cyprus, in the near future (2031–2060) compared to the present climate (1971–2000), under two future scenarios, i.e. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The analysis entails commonly used climatic indices of interest related to the islands' agricultural sector. The results indicate robust increases for both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures on a seasonal basis, as well as for the temperature related extremes under both climate scenarios. On the contrary, the changes in precipitation are less pronounced as the changes in the seasonal precipitation are not found statistically significant for the three islands under both scenarios. The projected warming combined with the projected unchanged precipitation pattern in the future, especially in spring and summer, might expose the crops to conditions with a negative impact on the plants' phenology, leading to implications on crop production and quality. The results presented here might be the basis for the development of an adaptation strategy specifically targeted on the three islands but also replicable to other Mediterranean islands

Climate Change and Thermal Comfort in Top Tourist Destinations—The Case of Santorini (Greece)

The Mediterranean area is one of the most visited tourist destinations of the world, but it has also been recognized as one of the most vulnerable to climate change areas worldwide with respect to increased thermal risk. The study focuses on a top worldwide tourist destination of the Mediterranean, Santorini Island in Greece, and aims to assess the past, present and future thermal environment in the island based on the advanced Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The study utilizes historical observations capturing past (late 19th to early 20th century) and more recent (1982–2019) time periods, while future projections are realized based on four regional climate models (RCMs) under the weak mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) and the non-mitigation scenario with high emissions (RCP8.5). The frequency of cold stress conditions at midday decreases during winter and early spring months by up to 19.8% (January) in the recent period compared to the historical one, while heat stress conditions increase in summer by up to 22.4% (August). Future projections suggest progressive shifts of the UTCI towards higher values in the future and an increase in the exposure time under heat stress depending on the RCM and adopted scenario. The increase in moderate and strong heat stress conditions is mainly expected during the summer months (June, July, August); nevertheless, a noticeable increase is also foreseen in September and May. The highest occurrences of favorable (no thermal stress) conditions are also projected to shift by one month, from June to May and from September to October, in the future

Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to develop prioritization maps in urban search and rescue operations, after a natural disaster. Case study: the municipality of Agia Paraskevi, Athens, Greece

A natural phenomenon often entails considerable consequences, such as the destruction of infrastructures and the loss of human lives. However, the number of casualties does not only depend on the severity of the natural phenomena but also on the effectiveness of the Urban Search And Rescue (USAR) operations, coordinated by the Operation Center (OC). The number of the incoming information is usually large, while the available USAR teams are limited, resulting in misleading decisions, regarding the prioritizing of the USAR operations, and huge delays. This ineffectiveness could result in a disproportionate number of casualties and decline the civilians' trust to the national and local government, producing political instability to the region or the country. Thus, an automated process, which prioritize the USAR operations is absolutely necessary, in order to ensure that the OC will take the best possible decisions in minimum time. In this study, a methodology is developed, regarding the production of prioritization maps (heatmaps), which identify and prioritize the most critical regions in an area prior to the occurrence of the natural disaster. At the time that the natural disaster occurs, their use from the OC, combined with the incoming information, will contribute to an effective and quick decision-making process, which in turn will minimize the casualties, and ensure the rapid return to normality and stability of the whole area. In order to develop this methodology several scenarios are taken into account, depending on the time and the day of the natural disaster and determining the most likely distribution of the population in the area under consideration. Statistical data (population and building data) and data of vulnerable social groups (eg disabled persons, children) are processed in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to develop heatmaps. Finally, the previous described methodology has been applied for the municipality of Agia Paraskevi (a suburb of Athens), and the corresponding heatmaps are developed. The produced maps present the most critical areas of the municipality and their use, in a case of a natural disaster, is expected to enhance the effectiveness of USAR teams ensuring political stability. (C) 2018, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping under the Climate Change Impact in the Chania Regional Unit, West Crete, Greece

Over the preceding decades, climate change has affected precipitation, the most common factor triggering landslides. The aim of this study is to highlight this impact by examining the precipitation trends in the Chania regional unit, Greece, with the help of the precipitation time series provided by 21 local meteorological stations covering a period from 1955 to 2020. The analysis also focuses on the extreme precipitation events of February 2019, where the monthly cumulated precipitation amount reached 1225 mm, one of the highest ever recorded in Greece. Moreover, an inventory of past and recent landslides was created and the intensity–duration landslide precipitation thresholds were evaluated. Daily simulations of precipitation from three state-of-the-art regional climate models were used to analyze precipitation patterns under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, for the period 2030–2060. The application of the estimated precipitation thresholds on the daily future precipitation projections revealed an increase in the following decades of the precipitation events that can activate a landslide and, therefore, highlighted the climate change impact. Moreover, the mean annual precipitation of the preceding 10 years was evaluated and used along with local hydro-geological data and the recent landslide inventory, providing approximately a 5% more effective landslide susceptibility map compared with the relative maps produced by using the mean annual precipitation evaluated for the control period (1976–2005) and for the preceding 30 years. Thus, landslide susceptibility emerges as a dynamic process and the landslide susceptibility map needs to be regularly updated due to the significant and ongoing changes in precipitation because of climate change