Why do markets react badly to good news? Evidence from Fed Funds Futures

It is well known that U.S. monetary policy is well-approximated by a Taylor rule. This suggests a reason why good macroeconomic news sometimes depresses equity returns: good news about the real side of the economy implies tighter future monetary policy. I test this hypothesis by assessing the effect of news on equity returns after controlling for changes in expectations of future monetary policy using Fed Funds Futures data. The results do not support the theory. Furthermore, the negative response of stock markets to unanticipated inflation is unchanged by controlling for changes in monetary policy expectations.Fed Funds Futures. Macroeconomic News Surprises. Taylor Rule

Comparing Models of Macroeconomic Fluctuations: How Big Are the Differences?

I generate priors for a VAR from four competing models of economic fluctuations: a standard RBC model, Fisher’s (2006) investment-specific technology shocks model, an RBC model with capital adjustment costs and habit formation, and a sticky price model with an unaccommodating monetary authority. I compare the accuracy of the forecasts made with each of the resulting VARs. The economic models generate similar forecast errors to one another. However, at horizons of one to two years and greater, the models generally yield superior forecasts to those made using both an unrestricted VAR and a VAR that uses shrinkage from a Minnesota prior.Model Evaluation; Priors from DSGE models; Economic Fluctuations; Hours Debate; Business Cycles;

Flowers Associations and Mating Behavior or its Absence at Blossoms by \u3ci\u3eSpilomyia\u3c/i\u3e Spp. (Diptera, Syrphidae)

(excerpt) Syrphid flies of many species visit blossoms to obtain nectar and pollen (see Waldbauer 1983 for referencesl. Many of these syrphids, in common with other insects (Parker 1978), also find mates at the blossoms. Males of these syrphid species make aerial patrols of inflorescences frequented by females, alternating these patrols with sitting on foliage. l11ey pounce on or chase insects of various species and swiftly initiate copulation with can specific females (Collet and Land 1975; Maier 1978; Maier and Waldbauer 1 979a,b)

Race and Subprime Loan Pricing

In this paper we investigate whether race and ethnicity influenced subprime loan pricing during 2005, the peak of the subprime mortgage expansion. We combine loan-level data on the performance of non-prime securitized mortgages with individual- and neighborhood-level data on racial and ethnic characteristics for metropolitan areas in California and Florida. Using a model of rate determination that accounts for predicted loan performance, we evaluate the presence of disparate impact and disparate treatment from race and ethnicity on rate-setting behavior across the most popular subprime mortgage products. In contrast with previous studies of the subprime market, we find evidence of adverse pricing effects for black and Hispanic borrowers.

Is housing the business cycle? evidence from U.S. cities

We analyze the relationship between housing and the business cycle in a set of 36 US cities. Most surprisingly, we find that falls in house prices are often not followed by declines in employment. We also find that the leading indicator property of residential investment is not consistent across cities and that, at the national level, the leading indicator property of residential investment is not robust to including financial factors as control variables.Housing ; Housing - Prices ; Business cycles

Digital Risk Management and Data Protection

IVI is researching the precise issues that increased use of technology is creating for businesses. As legislation grows, it is attempting to force organizations to measure and minimize the inherent risk. Data protection (data privacy) is a key focus which includes information security but much more. In this executive briefing we consider the issues around the development of a new DP capability and provide guidance to organizations that are attempting to measure and improve their capability to be compliant and manage risk

Differences in subprime loan pricing across races and neighborhoods

We investigate whether race and ethnicity influenced subprime loan pricing during 2005, the peak of the subprime mortgage expansion. We combine loan-level data on the performance of non-prime securitized mortgages with individual- and neighborhood- level data on racial and ethnic characteristics for metropolitan areas in California and Florida. Using a model of rate determination that accounts for predicted loan performance, we evaluate the differences in subprime mortgage rates in terms of racial and ethnic groups and neighborhood characteristics. We find evidence of adverse pricing for blacks and Hispanics. The evidence of adverse pricing is strongest for purchase mortgages and mortgages originated by non-depository institutions.Subprime mortgage; Housing policy; Discrimination in mortgage loans

An Introductory Survey of Computational Space Complexity

Using the Understanding by Design pedagogical methodology, this thesis aims to combine, clarify, and contextualize introductory ideas about computational space complexity and package them in an instructional unit. The unit is composed primarily of a Unit Template, series of Lessons, and Performance Assessments. It is intended to present content acknowledged as valuable by ACM that is often missing from undergraduate computer science curricula at peer educational institutions to Trinity University. The unit covers ideas such as the space hierarchy, computational time / space tradeoffs, and completeness, and is designed to promote understanding and inquiry of and beyond its subject matter