Progress of Indian summer monsoon onset and convective episodes over Indo-Pacific region observed during 2009-2014

Summer monsoon onset progress from the oceanic region of Southeast Bay of Bengal / Andaman Sea (Oceanr) up to extreme southwestern part of India (Kerala) for the years 2009 to 2014 is investigated. Synoptic weather information, INSAT/KALPANA-1 as well as cloud imageries archived from Dundee Satellite Receiving Station for May and early June for these years are used in the analysis. Upper-air reanalyzed winds from NCEP/NCAR and OLR data archived through NOAA satellites are also used. During the study period, the dates of monsoon onset as well as the time required for the advancement of onset from Oceanr to Kerala have shown a large variation. An attempt is made to investigate the causes for such variations. The results indicate that intense disturbances which formed over north Indian Ocean in 2009, 2010, 2013 and 2014 and over west-north Pacific Oceanic region in 2011 and 2012 have contributed for the same. Analysis is carried out, limiting its focus to bring out the role of these convective events in the observed variation of onset timing and its progress by taking case to case review of these events and bringing out their influence through synoptic analysis. Utility of this information in prediction of the progress of Indian summer monsoon onset is also brought out

Association of the pre-monsoon thermal field over north India and the western Tibetan Plateau with summer monsoon rainfall over India

In this paper, interannual variability of tropospheric air temperatures over the Asian summer monsoon region during the pre-monsoon months is examined in relation to Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR; June to September total rainfall). For this purpose, monthly grid-point temperatures in the entire troposphere over the Asian summer monsoon region and ISMR data for the period 1949–2012 have been used. Spatial correlation patterns are investigated between the temperature field in the lower tropospheric levels during May over the Asian summer monsoon region and ISMR. The results indicate a strong and significant northwest–southeast dipole structure in the spatial correlations over the Indian region, with highly significant positive (negative) correlations over the regions of north India and the western Tibetan Plateau region – region R1 (north Bay of Bengal: region R2). The observed dipole is seen significantly up to a level of 850 hPa and eventually disappears at 700 hPa. Thermal indices evaluated at 850 hPa level, based on average air temperatures over the north India and western Tibetan Plateau region (TI1) and the north Bay of Bengal region (TI2) during May, show a strong, significant relationship with the ISMR. The results are found to be consistent and robust, especially in the case of TI1 during the period of analysis. A physical mechanism for the relationship between these indices and ISMR is proposed. Finally the composite annual cycle of tropospheric air temperature over R1 during flood/drought years of ISMR is examined. The study brings out the importance of the TI1 in the prediction of flood/drought conditions over the Indian subcontinent

Ocean-atmosphere interaction and synoptic weather conditions in association with the two contrasting phases of monsoon during BOBMEX-1999

Surface meteorological parameters acquired during the field phase experiment, BOBMEX-99, for the stationary periods (SP I and II) of the ship ORV Sagar Kanya over Bay of Bengal have been analysed. Active and weak monsoon conditions were observed during the first and the second phase of the experiment respectively over India as well as over the stationary ship location. The phase mean sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be the same in both the phases, however large differences have been observed in the phase mean values of wind speed, mean sea level pressure, latent heat and momentum fluxes at air-sea interface. Synoptic scale monsoon disturbances formed only during the period of strong north-south pressure gradient over the Bay region. Events of prominent fall in SST and in the upper 15 m ocean layer mean temperature and salinity values during typical rainfall events are cited. The impact of monsoon disturbances on ocean-atmosphere interface transfer processes has been investigated

Wind profiles in the boundary layer over Kharagpur associated with synoptic scale systems

Doppler sodar wind data for the boundary layer over Kharagpur obtained during MONTBLEX-1990 at a height interval of 30 m from surface up to 1500 m have been analysed for the periods when intense synoptic scale disturbances from north Bay of Bengal moved along the eastern end of the monsoon trough. The variation in the vertical wind profile in the lower boundary layer over Kharagpur during the passage of synoptic scale disturbances has been discussed in the paper. The analysis indicates that the mean winds over Kharagpur veered with height in the lower boundary layer near the surface suggesting divergence over Kharagpur when the system lay south/southwest of the station. No such veering has been noticed when the centre of the system lay very close to the station

A diagnostic study on heat sources and moisture sinks in the monsoon trough area during active-break phases of the Indian summer monsoon, 1979

The diabatic heating over the Indian monsoon trough area, along with its thermal structure are studied for the 1979 summer monsoon based on FGGE level-IIIb upper air data of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. The apparent heat source and the apparent moisture sink over the trough area varied coherently with the rainfall over central India. The spatial and temporal variations of the vertically integrated apparent heat source and moisture sink were found to be coincident. These coincidences suggested that diabatic heating was largely contributed by the latent heat released by cumulus convection. During the active periods, the vertical structure of spatially-averaged heating and drying rates above the monsoon trough area showed higher values, as much as 8 K to 11 K day-1, at the mid-tropospheric level (500hPa), but much smaller and even negative values during break periods. Analyses of the heating and drying rates at 500 hPa level in a x-t diagram revealed that heat sources and moisture sinks propagated westward across the trough area with a period of 10-15 days (often called monsoon mode). The 30-50 day period of fluctuations showed a close link with the two major active/break phases of monsoon during the season. The monsoon mode became a part of the mid-season fluctuation of monsoon activity between the two major active phases. This paper discusses the spatial distribution of rainfall and heat source and moisture sink over the trough area, and the role of east-west differential heating in the development of weak/break phases of Indian summer monsoon 1979

Emerging concepts in biomarker discovery; The US-Japan workshop on immunological molecular markers in oncology

Supported by the Office of International Affairs, National Cancer Institute (NCI), the "US-Japan Workshop on Immunological Biomarkers in Oncology" was held in March 2009. The workshop was related to a task force launched by the International Society for the Biological Therapy of Cancer (iSBTc) and the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to identify strategies for biomarker discovery and validation in the field of biotherapy. The effort will culminate on October 28th 2009 in the "iSBTc-FDA-NCI Workshop on Prognostic and Predictive Immunologic Biomarkers in Cancer", which will be held in Washington DC in association with the Annual Meeting. The purposes of the US-Japan workshop were a) to discuss novel approaches to enhance the discovery of predictive and/or prognostic markers in cancer immunotherapy; b) to define the state of the science in biomarker discovery and validation. The participation of Japanese and US scientists provided the opportunity to identify shared or discordant themes across the distinct immune genetic background and the diverse prevalence of disease between the two Nations

Application of satellite-derived OLR data in the prediction of the onset of Indian summer monsoon

Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data, obtained from NOAA polar orbiting satellites for the months March-June, for 31 years is utilized to investigate low-frequency oscillation in pre-monsoon convection over southwest peninsular Indian region. The analysis reveals a characteristic fall in OLR over the region, about 5-9 weeks prior to the onset of Indian summer monsoon in almost all the years under study. Such fall is shown to be related with a characteristic peak in convective activity associated with the movement of Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone over the region. The results suggest an indirect non-linear relationship between the time of occurrence of the pre-monsoon convective peak and the onset date. A regression equation is developed to predict the onset date. The results of estimation of present method and that of an earlier method (based on conventional synoptic observations) are compared. The performance of both these methods is validated for two independent years (2007 and 2008). The study highlights the potential application of the developed method for the prediction of onset of Indian summer monsoon well in advance using the remotely sensed satellite-derived OLR data. © 2009 Springer-Verlag

The burst of indian summer monsoon as revealed by goes satellite during monex 1979

During FGGE year 1979, low-level air flow over the western Indian Ocean was determined from the analysis of GOES images (5-20 June). The wind pattern shows sudden change in low-level air circulation over western Indian Ocean during the initial burst of summer monsoon. The burst of monsoon is characte-rized by sudden establishment of low-level jet and strong cross-equatorial flow. This abrupt change signals the beginning of southwest monsoon over India and it is associated with the first monsoon rainfall over the southern part of western coast of India. Sudden change in low-level air flow is followed by the burst of monsoon within 3-5 days

Excitation of low-level jet as seen by GOES (I-O) satellite off the Somali coast

The intensification of a low-level jet off the Somali coast, as observed through GOES (I-O) satellite during Indian summer monsoon 1979 has been studied. Excitation of Low-level cross-equatorial flow in the western Indian ocean results from an interaction between extratropical perturbations moving eastward across the South African-Malgassy region of the Southern Hemisphere. This excitation occurs 2-3 days after the first appearance of a northward propagation cold front across the South African-Malgassy region. Intensification of cross-equatorial flow is followed by an increase in rainfall activity along the west coast of India after 3-4 days. The study reveals that this association can be used to forecast an increase in rainfall activity along the west coast of India 5-7 days in advance