Interim analysis in long-term clinical trials

The purpose of this dissertation is to evaluate the usefulness of both stopping rules and estimation methods in long-term clinical trials with interim analyses. The ASPECT trial, a long-term clinical trial to assess the effect of anticoagulant therapy on mortality in patients after myocardial infarction which is currently conducted in the Netherlands, serves as a major example throughout this dissertation. In the final stage of the development of a new therapy usually a large-scale comparative clinical trial is used. In many clinical trials the effect of a treatment can only be assessed over a long period of time, or the length of time that is needed to recruit the required number of patients for the trial is long. During the course of such long-term clinical trials it is desirable to evaluate the accumulating results at regular time intervals. The interim results might indicate that continuation of the trial is meaningful, superfluous, or ethically unjustified. This dissertation describes statistical methods for the design and the analysis of long-term clinical trials with interim analyses within the classical statistical framework. The usefulness of these methods is investigated. The ASPECT trial, a trial that is currently being conducted in the Netherlands of the effect of anticoagulant therapy on mortality in patients after myocardial infarction, serves as a major example throughout this dissertation

The percutaneous assessment of regional and acute coronary hot unstable plaques by thermographic evaluation (PARACHUTE) study: A prospective reproducibility and prognostic clinical study using thermography to predict future ischemic cardiac events

Intravascular thermography is currently being considered as a valuable tool in assessing macrophage-rich plaques. Since it is unknown what the prognostic value is of non-obstructive atherosclerotic plaques showing temperature heterogeneity, we designed the PARACHUTE study, a prospective, reproducibility, and prognostic clinical study using thermography in patients presenting with an unstable coronary syndrome. The primary endpoint of the study is the predictive value of temperature heterogeneity towards the occurrence of ischemic coronary events and hospitalization for ischemia and/or angina. The secondary endpoints are the predictive value of high-risk plaques associated with the development of future cardiac events, assessmen

Inter- and intra-observer variability in the qualitative categorization of coronary angiograms.

The ABC classification of the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association is a commonly used categorization to estimate the risk and success of intracoronary intervention, as well as the probability of restenosis. To evaluate the reliability of qualitative angiogram readings, we randomly selected 200 films from single lesion angioplasty procedures. A repeated visual assessment (> or = 2 months interval) by two independent observers resulted in kappa values of inter and intra-observer variability for the ABC lesion classification and for all separate items that compile it. Variability in assessment is expressed in percentage of total agreement, and in kappa value, which is a parameter of the agreement between two or more observations in excess of the chance agreement. Percentage of total agreement and kappa value was 67.8% and 0.33 respectively for the ABC classification, indicating a poor agreement. Probably this is due to the deficiency of strict definitions. Further investigation has to demonstrate whether improvement can be achieved using complete and detailed definitions without ambiguity, and consensus after panel assessment

Comparison of usefulness of computer assisted continuous 48-h 3-lead with 12-lead ECG ischaemia monitoring for detection and quantitation of ischaemia in patients with unstable angina

AIMS: The selection of ECG leads used for ST monitoring may influence detection and quantitation of ischaemia. METHODS: We compared on-line continuous 48-h 12-lead against 3-lead ST monitoring in 130 unstable angina patients (Mortara. ELI-100). Onset and offset of ST episodes were defined by the lead with the first > or = 100 microV ST change relative to baseline and the lead with the latest return to baseline ST level, respectively. ST episodes were calculated for 12 leads and 3 leads (V2, V5, III) separately. RESULTS: ST episodes were detected in 88 patients (77%) by 12-lead and in 71 patients (62%) by 3-lead ST monitoring (P < 0.02). The median number (25.75%) of episodes/patient was 1 (0.3) for 3-lead and 2 (1.6) for 12-lead (P < 0.0001). The total duration of ischaemia detected during 12-lead far exceeded 3-lead monitoring: 12.3 (1, 58.2) and 1.7 (0, 23.3) min respectively (P < 0.0001). The probability of recurrent ischaemia declined most during the first 24 h of monitoring. After a period without ST changes of 1, 12, 24 and 36 h, the probabilities of recurrent ischaemia were 63, 31, 14 and 9%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Continuous 12-lead ST monitoring increases detection rate and duration of ST episodes compared to 3-lead ST monitoring. The use of continuous 12-lead ECG monitoring devices on emergency wards and coronary care units is recommended

One year cost effectiveness of sirolimus eluting stents compared with bare metal stents in the treatment of single native de novo coronary lesions: an analysis from the RAVEL trial

OBJECTIVE: To assess the balance between costs and effects of the sirolimus eluting stent in the treatment of single native de novo coronary lesions in the RAVEL (randomised study with the sirolimus eluting Bx Velocity balloon expandable stent in the treatment of patients with de novo native coronary artery lesions) study. DESIGN: Multicentre, double blind, randomised trial. SETTING: Percutaneous coronary intervention for single de novo coronary lesions. PATIENTS: 238 patients with stable or unstable angina. INTERVENTIONS: Randomisation to sirolimus eluting stent or bare stent implantation. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Patients were followed up to one year and the treatment effects were expressed as one year survival free of major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Costs were estimated as the product of resource utilisation and Dutch unit costs. RESULTS: At one year, the absolute difference in MACE-free survival was 23% in favour of the sirolimus eluting stent group. At the index procedure, sirolimus eluting stent implantation had an estimated additional procedural cost of 1286. At one year, however, the estimated additional cost difference had decreased to 54 because of the reduction in the need for repeat revascularisations in the sirolimus group (0.8% v 23.6%; p < 0.01). After adjustment of actual results for the consequences of angiographic follow up (correction based on data from the BENESTENT (Belgium Netherlands stent) II study), the difference in MACE-free survival was estimated at 11.1% and the addit

Clinical and Angiographic Factors Associated With Asymptomatic Restenosis After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

BACKGROUND: Angiographic restenosis after percutaneous coronary interventional procedures is more common than recurrent angina. Clinical and angiographic factors associated with asymptomatic versus symptomatic restenosis after percutaneous coronary intervention were compared. METHODS AND RESULTS: All patients with angiographic restenosis from the BENESTENT I, BENESTENT II pilot, BENESTENT II, MUSIC, WEST 1, DUET, FINESS 2, FLARE, SOPHOS, and ROSE studies were analyzed. Multivariate analysis evaluated 46 clinical and angiographic variables, comparing those with and without angina. The 10 studies recruited 2690 patients who underwent percutaneous revascularization and 6-month follow-up angiography (86% of those eligible). Restenosis (>/=50% diameter stenosis) occurred in 607 patients and was clinically silent in 335 (55%). Male sex (P=0.008), absence of antianginal therapy with nitrates (P=0.0002) and calcium channel blockers (P=0.02) at 6 months, greater reference diameter after the procedure (P=0.04), greater reference diameter at follow-up (P=0.004), and lesser lesion severity (percent stenosis) at 6 months (P=0.0004) were univariate predictors of asymptomatic restenosis. By multivariate analysis, only male sex (P=0.04), greater reference diameter at follow-up (P=0.002), and lesser lesion severity at 6 months (P=0.0001) were associated with restenosis without angina. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of patients with angiographic restenosis have no symptoms. The only multivariate predictors of silent restenosis at 6 months were male sex, greater reference diameter at follow-up, and lesser lesion severity on follow-up angiography

An optical coherence tomography study of a biodegradable vs. durable polymer-coated limus-eluting stent: a LEADERS trial sub-study

Aims Incomplete endothelialization has been found to be associated with late stent thrombosis, a rare but devastating phenomenon, more frequent after drug-eluting stent implantation. Optical coherence tomography (OCT) has 10 times greater resolution than intravascular ultrasound and thus appears to be a valuable modality for the assessment of stent strut coverage. The LEADERS trial was a multi-centre, randomized comparison of a biolimus-eluting stent (BES) with biodegradable polymer with a sirolimus-eluting stent (SES) using a durable polymer. This study sought to evaluate tissue coverage and apposition of stents using OCT in a group of patients from the randomized LEADERS trial. Methods and results Fifty-six consecutive patients underwent OCT during angiographic follow-up at 9 months. OCT images were acquired using a non-occlusive technique at a pullback speed of 3 mm/s. Data were analysed using a Bayesian hierarchical random-effects model, which accounted for the correlation of lesion characteristics within patients and implicitly assigned analytical weights to each lesion depending on the number of struts observed per lesion. Primary outcome was the difference in percentage of uncovered struts between BESs and SESs. Twenty patients were included in the analysis in the BES group (29 lesions with 4592 struts) and 26 patients in the SES group (35 lesions with 6476 struts). A total of 83 struts were uncovered in the BES group and 407 out of 6476 struts were uncovered in the SES group [weighted difference −1.4%, 95% confidence interval (CI) −3.7 to 0.0, P = 0.04]. Results were similar after adjustment for pre-procedure lesion length, reference vessel diameter, number of implanted study stents, and presence of stent overlap. There were three lesions in the BES group and 15 lesions in the SES group that had ≥5% of all struts uncovered (difference −33.1%, 95% CI −61.7 to −10.3, P < 0.01). Conclusion Strut coverage at an average follow-up of 9 months appears to be more complete in patients allocated to BESs when compared with SESs. The impact of this difference on clinical outcome and, in particular, on the risk of late stent thrombosis is yet to be determine

Long-Term Clinical Outcomes With Sirolimus-Eluting Coronary Stents Five-Year Results of the RAVEL Trial

ObjectivesThis study examined the clinical outcomes at 5 years in RAVEL (A Randomized Comparison of a Sirolimus-Eluting Stent With a Standard Stent for Coronary Revascularization), the first controlled trial of drug-eluting stents.BackgroundThe 6-month rate of angiographic coronary restenosis has been markedly lowered by sirolimus-eluting stents (SES). The long-term performance of drug-eluting stents, however, is under close scrutiny.MethodsThe trial included 238 patients (mean age 60.7 ± 10.4 years, 76% men) with a single, de novo native coronary artery lesion, randomly assigned to treatment with SES versus bare-metal stents (BMS). Rates of major adverse cardiac events (MACE), defined as all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, and percutaneous or surgical revascularization up to 5 years of follow-up, and rates of stent thrombosis were compared between the 2 treatment groups.ResultsComplete datasets were available in 92.5% of patients treated with SES and 89.1% of patients assigned to BMS. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year rates of survival free from target lesion revascularization (TLR) were, respectively, 99.2%, 93.8%, and 89.7% in the SES group versus 75.9%, 75.0%, and 74.0% in the control group (p < 0.001; log-rank). Rates of all MACE at 5 years were 25.8% in patients treated with SES versus 35.2% in patients assigned to BMS (p = 0.03; log-rank). Rates of stent thrombosis, per protocol or by the Academic Research Consortium definitions, were similar in both groups.ConclusionsThe 5-year rate of TLR associated with SES was significantly lower than that with BMS. There was no apparent adverse effect associated with the use of SES, although the trial was not powered to examine uncommon complications

Recoil following Wiktor stent implantation for restenotic lesions of coronary arteries

The purpose of this study was to determine acute recoil of the vessel wall immediately after Wiktor stent implantation in native coronary arteries of 77 consecutive patients and to assess whether there was compression or “late recoil” of the stent itself at long-term follow-up. Furthermore, the relationship between recoil and a number of clinical, angiographic, and procedural variables was studied in addition to the relation between acute recoil renarrowing or restenosis was assessed. All angiograms were analyzed with the Cardiovascular Angiography Analysis System using automated edge detection. Acute recoil was defined by the difference between the mean diameter of the fully expanded balloon on which the stent was mounted and the mean diameter of the stented segment. Late recoil was calculated by comparing the mean diameter of the stent itself immediately after implantation and at follow-up without opacification of the vessel. Acute recoil amounted to 0.25 ± 0.32 mm or 8.2%. Multivariate analysis identified sex (coefficient = –0.20, p = 0.04) and stent/artery ratio (coefficient = 0.99, p = 0.0001) as the only independent predictors of acute recoil. “Late recoil” of the stent itself was not observed. The overall difference between the mean diameter of the stent itself immediately after implantation and at follow-up was –0.15 ± 0.33 mm, suggesting an overall increase in diameter of 5.0%. There was no relation between acute recoil and late restenosis. On the contrary, there was a trend towards a greater degree of recoil in patients without restenosis. Moreover, linear regression analysis disclosed a weak but negative correlation between acute recoil and a loss in minimal luminal diameter (coefficient: –0.55, p = 0.04). The Wiktor stent effectively scaffolds the instrumented vessel. Only a minimal amount of acute recoil was noted, which did not contribute to late luminal renarrowing or restenosis. In addition, no late compression of the stent itself was observed. These data suggest that tissue ingrowth into the lumen of the stented segment is the main cause of late luminal renarrowing after stent implantation. © 1994 Wiley-Liss,Inc.

Five-year outcomes of chronic total occlusion treatment with a biolimus A9-eluting biodegradable polymer stent versus a sirolimus-eluting permanent polymer stent in the LEADERS all-comers trial

Background: Few data are available on long-term follow-up of drug-eluting stents in the treatment of chronic total occlusion (CTO). The LEADERS CTO sub-study compared the long-term results in CTO and non-CTO lesions of a Biolimus A9™-eluting stent (BES) with a sirolimus-eluting stent (SES).Methods: Among 1,707 patients enrolled in the prospective, multi-center, all-comers LEADERS trial, 81 with CTOs were treated with either a BES (n = 45) or a SES (n = 36). The primary endpoint was the occurrence of major adverse cardiac events (MACE): cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI) and clinically-indicated target vessel revascularization (TVR).Results: At 5 years, the rate of MACE was numerically higher in the CTO group than in the non-CTO group (29.6% vs. 23.3%; p = 0.173), with a significant increase in the incidence of target lesion revascularization (TLR) (21.0 vs. 12.6; p = 0.033), but no difference in stent thrombosis (ST). Patients with CTO receiving a BES demonstrated a lower incidence of MACE (22.2% vs. 38.9%; p = 0.147) with a significant reduction in TLR compared to patients receiving a SES (11.1% vs. 33.3%, p = 0.0214) with an incidence similar to that observed in the non-CTO group treated with BES (11.6%). Definite ST at 5 years nearly halved in the BES group (4.4% vs. 8.3%, p = 0.478) with no ST in the BES group after the first year (0% vs. 8.3%, p for interaction = 0.009).Conclusions: The use of a BES showed a reduction in MACE, TVR, TLR, and ST over time in the CTO subset with similar outcome as for non-CTO lesions