A 'small-world-like' model for comparing interventions aimed at preventing and controlling influenza pandemics

BACKGROUND: With an influenza pandemic seemingly imminent, we constructed a model simulating the spread of influenza within the community, in order to test the impact of various interventions. METHODS: The model includes an individual level, in which the risk of influenza virus infection and the dynamics of viral shedding are simulated according to age, treatment, and vaccination status; and a community level, in which meetings between individuals are simulated on randomly generated graphs. We used data on real pandemics to calibrate some parameters of the model. The reference scenario assumes no vaccination, no use of antiviral drugs, and no preexisting herd immunity. We explored the impact of interventions such as vaccination, treatment/prophylaxis with neuraminidase inhibitors, quarantine, and closure of schools or workplaces. RESULTS: In the reference scenario, 57% of realizations lead to an explosive outbreak, lasting a mean of 82 days (standard deviation (SD) 12 days) and affecting 46.8% of the population on average. Interventions aimed at reducing the number of meetings, combined with measures reducing individual transmissibility, would be partly effective: coverage of 70% of affected households, with treatment of the index patient, prophylaxis of household contacts, and confinement to home of all household members, would reduce the probability of an outbreak by 52%, and the remaining outbreaks would be limited to 17% of the population (range 0.8%–25%). Reactive vaccination of 70% of the susceptible population would significantly reduce the frequency, size, and mean duration of outbreaks, but the benefit would depend markedly on the interval between identification of the first case and the beginning of mass vaccination. The epidemic would affect 4% of the population if vaccination started immediately, 17% if there was a 14-day delay, and 36% if there was a 28-day delay. Closing schools when the number of infections in the community exceeded 50 would be very effective, limiting the size of outbreaks to 10% of the population (range 0.9%–22%). CONCLUSION: This flexible tool can help to determine the interventions most likely to contain an influenza pandemic. These results support the stockpiling of antiviral drugs and accelerated vaccine development

Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918-9

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The ecology of influenza may be more complex than is usually assumed. For example, despite multiple waves in the influenza pandemic of 1918-19, many people in urban locations were apparently unaffected. Were they unexposed, or protected by pre-existing cross-immunity in the first wave, by acquired immunity in later waves, or were their infections asymptomatic?</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We modelled all these possibilities to estimate parameters to best explain patterns of repeat attacks in 24,706 individuals potentially exposed to summer, autumn and winter waves in 12 English populations during the 1918-9 pandemic.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Before the summer wave, we estimated that only 52% of persons (95% credibility estimates 41-66%) were susceptible, with the remainder protected by prior immunity. Most people were exposed, as virus transmissibility was high with R₀credibility estimates of 3.10-6.74. Because of prior immunity, estimates of effective R at the start of the summer wave were lower at 1.57-3.96. Only 25-66% of exposed and susceptible persons reported symptoms. After each wave, 33-65% of protected persons became susceptible again before the next wave through waning immunity or antigenic drift. Estimated rates of prior immunity were less in younger populations (19-59%) than in adult populations (38-66%), and tended to lapse more frequently in the young (49-92%) than in adults (34-76%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our model for pandemic influenza in 1918-9 suggests that pre-existing immune protection, presumably induced by prior exposure to seasonal influenza, may have limited the pandemic attack-rate in urban populations, while the waning of that protection likely contributed to recurrence of pandemic waves in exposed cities. In contrast, in isolated populations, pandemic attack rates in 1918-9 were much higher than in cities, presumably because prior immunity was less in populations with infrequent prior exposure to seasonal influenza. Although these conclusions cannot be verified by direct measurements of historical immune mechanisms, our modelling inferences from 1918-9 suggest that the spread of the influenza A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic has also been limited by immunity from prior exposure to seasonal influenza. Components of that immunity, which are measurable, may be short-lived, and not necessarily correlated with levels of HI antibody.</p

Gemcitabine, cisplatin and methylprednisolone (GEM-P) is an effective salvage regimen in patients with relapsed and refractory lymphoma

There is currently no standard salvage chemotherapy regimen in relapsed and refractory lymphoma. Gemcitabine is a novel nucleoside analogue, which acts synergistically with cisplatin both in vitro and in clinical studies. We evaluated the combination of gemcitabine, cisplatin and methylprednisolone (GEM-P) in 41 heavily pretreated patients with relapsed and refractory Hodgkin's and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The best-achieved response rate (RR) was 79% (95% CI 64–91), with a complete RR of 21%. In patients with chemo-resistant disease, the RR was 63%. Myelosuppression was the main toxicity, the incidence of Grade 3 or 4 anaemia, neutropenia and thrombocytopenia was 17.1, 61.0 and 53.7% respectively. Only one patient had neutropenic sepsis and none of the patients suffered from haemorrhage. Grade 3 or 4 nonhaematological toxicity was minimal and stem cell mobilisation was not inhibited. GEM-P is an effective salvage regimen and its use prior to autologous stem cell transplant warrants further investigation

The role of bioreductive activation of doxorubicin in cytotoxic activity against leukaemia HL60-sensitive cell line and its multidrug-resistant sublines

Clinical usefulness of doxorubicin (DOX) is limited by the occurrence of multidrug resistance (MDR) associated with the presence of membrane transporters (e.g. P-glycoprotein, MRP1) responsible for the active efflux of drugs out of resistant cells. Doxorubicin is a well-known bioreductive antitumour drug. Its ability to undergo a one-electron reduction by cellular oxidoreductases is related to the formation of an unstable semiquionone radical and followed by the production of reactive oxygen species. There is an increasing body of evidence that the activation of bioreductive drugs could result in the alkylation or crosslinking binding of DNA and lead to the significant increase in the cytotoxic activity against tumour cells. The aim of this study was to examine the role of reductive activation of DOX by the human liver NADPH cytochrome P450 reductase (CPR) in increasing its cytotoxic activity especially in regard to MDR tumour cells. It has been evidenced that, upon CPR catalysis, DOX underwent only the redox cycling (at low NADPH concentration) or a multistage chemical transformation (at high NADPH concentration). It was also found, using superoxide dismutase (SOD), that the first stage undergoing reductive activation according to the mechanism of the redox cycling had the key importance for the metabolic conversion of DOX. In the second part of this work, the ability of DOX to inhibit the growth of human promyelocytic-sensitive leukaemia HL60 cell line as well as its MDR sublines exhibiting two different phenotypes of MDR related to the overexpression of P-glycoprotein (HL60/VINC) or MRP1 (HL60/DOX) was studied in the presence of exogenously added CPR. Our assays showed that the presence of CPR catalysing only the redox cycling of DOX had no effect in increasing its cytotoxicity against sensitive and MDR tumour cells. In contrast, an important increase in cytotoxic activity of DOX after its reductive conversion by CPR was observed against HL60 as well as HL60/VINC and HL60/DOX cells

MicroRNA and mRNA expression profiling in rat acute respiratory distress syndrome

Background: Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is characterized by pulmonary epithelial injury and extensive inflammation of the pulmonary parenchyma. Systematic analyses of microRNA (miRNA) and mRNA expression profiling in ARDS provide insights into understanding of molecular mechanisms of the pathogenesis of ARDS. The objective of this study was to identify miRNA and mRNA interactions in a rat model of ARDS by combining miRNA and mRNA microarray analyses.Methods: Rat model of ARDS was induced by saline lavage and mechanical ventilation. The expression profiles of both mRNAs and miRNAs in rat ARDS model were performed by microarray analyses. Microarray data were further verified by quantitative RT-PCR. Functional annotation on dys-regulated mRNAs and miRNAs was carried out by bioinformatics analysis.Results: The expression of 27 miRNAs and 37 mRNAs were found to be significantly changed. The selected miRNAs and genes were further verified by quantitative real-time PCR. The down-regulated miRNAs included miR-24, miR-26a, miR-126, and Let-7a, b, c, f. The up-regulated miRNAs were composed of miR-344, miR-346, miR-99a, miR-127, miR-128b, miR-135b, and miR-30a/b. Gene ontology and functional annotation analyses indicated that up-regulated mRNAs, such as Apc, Timp1, and Sod2, were involved in the regulation of apoptosis. Bioinformatics analysis showed the inverse correlation of altered miRNAs with the expression of their predicted target mRNAs. While Sod2 was inversely correlated with Let-7a, b, c, f., Ebf1 and Apc were inversely correlated with miR-24 and miR-26a, respectively. miR-26a, miR-346, miR-135b, miR-30a/b, miR-344, and miR-18a targeted multiple altered mRNAs. Gabrb1, Sod2, Eif2ak1, Fbln5, and Tspan8 were targeted by multiple altered miRNAs.Conclusion: The expressions of miRNAs and mRNAs were altered in a rat model of ARDS. The identified miRNA-mRNA pairs may play critical roles in the pathogenesis of ARDS.Peer reviewedPathobiologyOklahoma Center for Respiratory and Infectious DiseasesPhysiological Science

A GPU accelerated Lennard-Jones system for immersive molecular dynamics simulations in virtual reality

Interactive tools and immersive technologies make teaching more engaging and complex concepts easier to comprehend are designed to benefit training and education. Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations numerically solve Newton’s equations of motion for a given set of particles (atoms or molecules). Improvements in computational power and advances in virtual reality (VR) technologies and immersive platforms may in principle allow the visualization of the dynamics of molecular systems allowing the observer to experience first-hand elusive physical concepts such as vapour-liquid transitions, nucleation, solidification, diffusion, etc. Typical MD implementations involve a relatively large number of particles N = O( 104 ) and the force models imply a pairwise calculation which scales, in case of a Lennard-Jones system, to the order of O( N2 ) leading to a very large number of integration steps. Hence, modelling such a computational system over CPU along with a GPU intensive virtual reality rendering often limits the system size and also leads to a lower graphical refresh rate. In the model presented in this paper, we have leveraged GPU for both data-parallel MD computation and VR rendering thereby building a robust, fast, accurate and immersive simulation medium. We have generated state-points with respect to the data of real substances such as CO 2 . In this system the phases of matter viz. solid liquid and gas, and their emergent phase transition can be interactively experienced using an intuitive control panel