Hotspots and Coldspots: Household and village-level variation in orphanhood prevalence in rural Malawi

We explore the spatial distribution of orphans in two areas of Malawi. We first review pertinent themes in qualitative data collected in our research sites. Then, using spatial analysis, we show how positive and negative clusters of orphans—which we term orphanhood "hotspots" and "coldspots"—can be found at the village and sub-village levels. In the third and longest section of the paper, and using multilevel analyses with both simple and complex variance structures, we evaluate the relationship between the presence of orphans and a range of individual, household and village-level characteristics, including households' spatial relationship to each other and to other local sites of significance. This series of analyses shows that the most important covariates of orphan presence are the density of settlement, household size, and religious characteristics, with the latter measured simultaneously at both household and village-level. Other characteristics like education, reported mortality levels and HIV infection, are wholly unrelated to orphan prevalence at all analytic levels. Wealth and various spatial characteristics are only marginally associated with orphan prevalence. We conclude by reviewing some difficulties in explaining causal mechanisms underlying these observed relationships, and discussing conceptual, theoretical and programmatic implications.Africa, AIDS/HIV, Malawi, multilevel model, orphan prevalence, orphans, spatial analysis

Global trends in AIDS mortality

This working paper reviews the evolution of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and provides estimates of past trends and future projections of AIDS mortality indicators, including numbers of AIDS deaths, the proportion of all deaths that are due to AIDS, and life expectancy. A cumulative total of 24 million people have died from AIDS between 1980 and 2007, and by 2030 this total is projected to reach 75 million. Despite the rapid spread of this new disease during the 1980s and 1990s, the epidemic has reached a major turning point in recent years as the rate of new infections peaked and began a decline. Worldwide, the proportion of all deaths caused by AIDS reached 3.9 percent in 2004; this proportion varies widely from a high of 15 percent in sub-Saharan Africa to around one percent in Asia and other regions. In the future, the number of AIDS deaths and the proportion of deaths due to AIDS are projected to remain approximately at their current levels

The end of population aging in high-income countries

Will the population of today's high-income countries continue to age throughout the remainder of the century? We answer this question by combining two methodologies, Bayesian hierarchical probabilistic population forecasting and the use of prospective ages, which are chronological ages adjusted for changes in life expectancy. We distinguish two variants of measures of aging: those that depend on fixed chronological ages and those that use prospective ages. Conventional measures do not, for example, distinguish between 65-year-olds in 2000 and 65- year-olds in 2100. In making forecasts of population aging over long periods of time, ignoring changes in the characteristics of people can lead to misleading results. It is preferable to use measures based on prospective ages in which expected changes in life expectancy are taken into account. We present probabilistic forecasts of population aging that use conventional and prospective measures for high-income countries as a group. The probabilistic forecasts based on conventional measures of aging show that the probability that aging will continue throughout the century is essentially one. In contrast, the probabilistic forecasts based on prospective measures of population aging show that population aging will almost certainly come to end well before the end of the century. Using prospective measures of population aging, we show that aging in high-income countries is likely a transitory phenomenon

Modeling Age Patterns of Under-5 Mortality: Results From a Log-Quadratic Model Applied to High-Quality Vital Registration Data

Information about how the risk of death varies with age within the 0-5 age range represents critical evidence for guiding health policy. This paper proposes a new model for summarizing regularities about how under-5 mortality is distributed by detailed age. The model is based on a newly compiled database that contains under-5 mortality information by detailed age in countries with high-quality vital registration systems, covering a wide array of mortality levels and patterns. The model uses a log-quadratic approach, predicting a full mortality schedule between age 0 and 5 on the basis of only 1 or 2 parameters. With its larger number of age groups, the proposed model offers greater flexibility than existing models both in terms of entry parameters and model outcomes. We present applications of this model for evaluating and correcting under-5 mortality information by detailed age in countries with problematic mortality data

Projecting Sex Imbalances at Birth at Global, Regional and National Levels From 2021 to 2100: Scenario-Based Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of the Sex Ratio at Birth and Missing Female Births Based on 3.26 Billion Birth Records

Introduction Skewed levels of the sex ratio at birth (SRB) due to sex-selective abortions have been observed in several countries since the 1970s. They will lead to long-term sex imbalances in more than one-third of the world\u27s population with yet unknown social and economic impacts on affected countries. Understanding the potential evolution of sex imbalances at birth is therefore essential for anticipating and planning for changing sex structures across the world. Methods We produced probabilistic SRB projections from 2021 to 2100 based on different scenarios of sex ratio transition and assessed their implications in terms of missing female births at global, regional and national levels. Based on a comprehensive SRB database with 3.26 billion birth records, we project the skewed SRB and missing female births with a Bayesian hierarchical time series mixture model. The SRB projections under reference scenario S1 assumed SRB transitions only for countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB inflation, and the more extreme scenario S2 assumed a sex ratio transition for countries at risk of SRB inflation but with no or limited evidence of ongoing inflation. Results Under scenario S1, we projected 5.7 (95% uncertainty interval (1.2; 15.3)) million additional missing female births to occur by 2100. Countries affected will be those already affected in the past by imbalanced SRB, such as China and India. If all countries at risk of SRB inflation experience a sex ratio transition as in scenario S2, the projected missing female births increase to 22.1 (12.2; 39.8) million with a sizeable contribution of sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusion The scenario-based projections provide important illustrations of the potential burden of future prenatal sex discrimination and the need to monitor SRBs in countries with son preference. Policy planning will be needed in the years to come to minimise future prenatal sex discrimination and its impact on social structures

Modelling HIV epidemics in the antiretroviral era: the UNAIDS Estimation and Projection package 2009

OBJECTIVE: The UNAIDS Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) is a tool for country-level estimation and short-term projection of HIV/AIDS epidemics based on fitting observed HIV surveillance data on prevalence. This paper describes the adaptations made in EPP 2009, the latest version of this tool, as new issues have arisen in the global response, in particular the global expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART). RESULTS: By December 2008 over 4 million people globally were receiving ART, substantially improving their survival. EPP 2009 required modifications to correctly adjust for the effects of ART on incidence and the resulting increases in HIV prevalence in populations with high ART coverage. Because changing incidence is a better indicator of program impact, the 2009 series of UNAIDS tools also focuses on calculating incidence alongside prevalence. Other changes made in EPP 2009 include: an improved procedure, incremental mixture importance sampling, for efficiently generating more accurate uncertainty estimates; provisions to vary the urban/rural population ratios in generalised epidemics over time; introduction of a modified epidemic model that accommodates behaviour change in low incidence settings; and improved procedures for calibrating models. This paper describes these changes in detail, and discusses anticipated future changes in the next version of EPP

Proyecto de evaluación de factibilidad económica y financiera para constituir un negocio de venta de chicharrones dirigido a público en Santa Luzmila - Comas - octubre 2016

RESUMEN La idea de este proyecto de inversión surgió por la necesidad de satisfacer un nicho de mercado en la zona de Santa Luzmila Comas, debido a que deseamos invertir en un negocio rentable a simple vista que es el rubro alimenticio, es por ello que buscamos que es lo que faltaba en nuestro alrededor y era la idea más practica que tenemos en mente. Los peruanos somos emprendedores y trabajadores, es por ello que buscamos esta oportunidad de negocio, para cubrir una necesidad insatisfecha que nos permitirá captar una mayor cantidad de clientes, ofreciendo además una atención personalizada y brindando ofertas, promociones que permitan introducirnos al mercado y crear una marca que deberemos renovar y mejorar para lograr la fidelización de los mismos. Para ello realizaremos el estudio de factibilidad económico, un estudio de mercado del entorno de manera exploratoria, basado directamente en la competencia, ya que para lograr que nuestra idea de negocio funciono tomaremos la información de la competencia para mejorarla.ABSTRACT The idea of this investment project arose because of the need to satisfy a market niche in the area of Santa Luzmila Comas, because we want to invest in a profitable business with the naked eye that is the food item, that is why we are looking for it What was missing around us and was the most practical idea we have in mind. Peruvians are entrepreneurs and workers, that is why we are looking for this business opportunity, to cover an unmet need that will allow us to attract a greater number of clients, offering also a personalized attention and offering offers, promotions that allow us to enter the market and create a Brand that we must renew and improve to achieve their loyalty. For this we will carry out the economic feasibility study, an exploratory market study of the environment, based directly on the competition, because to get our business idea worked we will take the information from the competition to improve it