Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land‐use decisions: Does it reduce tropical deforestation?

Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decisionmaking. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decisionmakers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non-natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies

Die Biodiversität als Ressource: Pflanzennutzung und Landnutzung der Shuar, Saraguros und Mestizos in tropischen Regenwaldgebieten Südecuadors

The montane and premontane rainforests of southern Ecuador constitute a hotspot of biodiversity (cf. Brehm et al. 2008; Barthlott et al. 2007, Neill 2007). The use of plant resources from these forest areas is a fundamental part of the portfolio of livelihood activities of the local population. Increasing human activity however results in biodiversity loss. The extension of pastures and fields, logging, mining and the construction of roads represent the main threats to biodiversity in southern Ecuador. In order to develop conservation strategies it is of utmost importance to understand the plant and forest-use patterns of the inhabitants of this region. In this way, it will be possible to develop alternatives that consider local claims while conserving biodiversity (cf. Pohle et al. 2010). In this study ethnoecological and agrogeographical research methods have been used to make a qualitative analysis of the ethnospecific plant knowledge and plant use of the three main ethnic groups of southern Ecuador, namely the Shuar, the Saraguros and the Mestizos. This is followed by a discussion of the feasibility in the study sites of four so-called instruments for biodiversity conservation: agroforestry, ecotourism, payments for environmental services, and bioprospecting.Die montanen und premontanen Regenwälder der tropischen Anden Südecuadors sind ein Hotspot der Biodiversität (vgl. Brehm et al. 2008; Barthlott et al. 2007, Neill 2007). Die Nutzung der pflanzlichen Ressourcen in diesen Wäldern ist für die Mehrzahl der Bevölkerung eine wesentliche Grundlage ihrer Existenz. Allerdings tragen diese anthropogenen Eingriffe erheblich zum Verlust der biologischen Vielfalt bei. Die Ausdehnung von Weideland und Ackerbau, die Holzentnahme, der Bergbau und der Bau von Straßen stellen die größten Gefahren dar. Um erfolgreiche Entwicklungskonzepte zum Schutz und zur nachhaltigen Nutzung der Biodiversität zu entwickeln, ist es dringend erforderlich, die Nutzungsansprüche und Interessen der lokalen Bevölkerung zu verstehen und zu berücksichtigen (vgl. Pohle et al. 2010). In dieser Arbeit werden ethnoökölogische und agrargeographische Untersuchungsmethoden angewendet, um eine qualitative Analyse der ethnospezifischen Pflanzenkenntnisse und Pflanzennutzungen der drei wichtigsten ethnischen Gruppen Südecuadors, nämlich der Shuar, der Saraguros und der Mestizos, durchzuführen. Anschließend wird die Landnutzung beschrieben und die Umsetzbarkeit von vier sogenannten Instrumenten zum Schutz der Biodiversität diskutiert: Agroforstwirtschaft, Ökotourismus, Zahlungen für Umweltleistungen und Bioprospektion

EFFECTIVENESS AND DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS OF PAYMENTS FOR REDUCED CARBON EMISSIONS FROM DEFORESTATION

This paper analyses the effectiveness and distributional effects of payments to avoid tropical deforestation. As a first: aspect, we investigated whether or not expected payments for avoided deforestation would be acceptable for tropical farmers in Southern Ecuador with the study area located directly adjacent to the Podocarpus National Park. Second, we explored possible distributional effects resulting from voluntary or mandatory remuneration schemes to avoid deforestation. Finally, a productive sustainable land use,vas conceptualised to be combined with payments For avoided deforestation to avoid leakage (i.e. deforestation processes elsewhere when avoided at a given farm). Farm level land use scenarios with ("business as usual") and without deforestation ("conservation strategy") were compared. Compensation per Mg Carbon (C) that is not emitted into the atmosphere under the "conservation strategy" was derived to achieve a monetary land net present value (NPV, sum of discounted future net revenues) equal to the NPV obtained under "business as usual'. Avoided carbon emissions were computed from above ground C in tropical forests of the project area and supplemented by In(130 formation on soil carbon from another study Economic data for cattle pasturing were obtained from a farm survey (130 households) to investigate distributional effects. To derive sustainable land use concepts, a risk sensitive bioeconomic farm model was used that considered effects of risk compensation when combining pasture with reforestation of abandoned farm lands and selective logging of natural forests. The results showed that only a few farmers (20 out of 130) would possibly accept a compensation price of US$10 per Mg avoided C emission, a C-compensation that is believed by other authors to reduce deforestation by 65$ 25 per Mg C was necessary to address compensation requirements of farmers who hold 50% of the tropical forest area in our study. The implementation of a voluntary remuneration scheme for avoided deforestation would not introduce systematic distributional effects (such as that only the biggest farmers would benefit from compensation), while a mandatory and enforced ban on deforestation coupled with a "fair" compensation payment equal to mean compensation requirements may lead to undesirable effects for many farmers. Finally, we demonstrate a mixed sustainable land use concept that depended on cheap credits for reforestation of abandoned pasture lands. This concept was able to stop farm level deforestation and to enlarge the economic value of farms through various combined land use options (agricultural and forestry options). The combination of land uses led to risk compensatory), effects and a more efficient land use by reintegrating unproductive abandoned areas back into the economical process. I In our conclusion a combination of payments for avoided deforestation along with productive land use concepts provided a viable solution for tropical forest conservation

Accounting for multiple ecosystem services in a simulation of land-use decisions:Does it reduce tropical deforestation?

Conversion of tropical forests is among the primary causes of global environmental change. The loss of their important environmental services has prompted calls to integrate ecosystem services (ES) in addition to socio-economic objectives in decision-making. To test the effect of accounting for both ES and socio-economic objectives in land-use decisions, we develop a new dynamic approach to model deforestation scenarios for tropical mountain forests. We integrate multi-objective optimization of land allocation with an innovative approach to consider uncertainty spaces for each objective. These uncertainty spaces account for potential variability among decision-makers, who may have different expectations about the future. When optimizing only socio-economic objectives, the model continues the past trend in deforestation (1975–2015) in the projected land-use allocation (2015–2070). Based on indicators for biomass production, carbon storage, climate and water regulation, and soil quality, we show that considering multiple ES in addition to the socio-economic objectives has heterogeneous effects on land-use allocation. It saves some natural forest if the natural forest share is below 38%, and can stop deforestation once the natural forest share drops below 10%. For landscapes with high shares of forest (38%–80% in our study), accounting for multiple ES under high uncertainty of their indicators may, however, accelerate deforestation. For such multifunctional landscapes, two main effects prevail: (a) accelerated expansion of diversified non-natural areas to elevate the levels of the indicators and (b) increased landscape diversification to maintain multiple ES, reducing the proportion of natural forest. Only when accounting for vascular plant species richness as an explicit objective in the optimization, deforestation was consistently reduced. Aiming for multifunctional landscapes may therefore conflict with the aim of reducing deforestation, which we can quantify here for the first time. Our findings are relevant for identifying types of landscapes where this conflict may arise and to better align respective policies