DIFFERENTIAL MODEL OF MACROECONOMIC GROWTH WITH ENDOGENIC CYCLICITY

Objective: to elaborate a mathematical model of economic growth, taking into account the cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics, with the model parameters based on the Russian economy statistics.Methods: economic and mathematical modeling, system analysis, regression factor analysis, econometric time series analysis. Results: the article states that, under unstable economic growth in Russia, forecasting of strategic prospects of the Russian economy is one of the topical directions of scientific studies. Furthermore, construction of predictive models should be based on multiple factors, taking into account such basic concepts as the neo-Keynesian Harrod-Domar model, Ramsey - Cass - Koopmans model, S. V. Dubovskiy’s concept, as well as the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow. They served as the basis for developing a multi-factor differential economic growth model, which is a modification of the neoclassical growth model by R. Solow, taking into account the labor-saving and capital-saving forms of scientific-technical progress and the Keynesian concept of investment. The model parameters are determined based on the dynamics of actual GDP, employment, fixed assets and investments in fixed assets for 1965-2016 in Russia, on the basis of official statistics. The generalized model showed the presence of long-wave fluctuations that are not detected during the individual periods modeling. The cyclical nature of macroeconomic dynamics with a period of 54 years was found, which corresponds to the parameters of long waves by N. D. Kondratiev. Basing on the model, the macroeconomic growth forecast was generated, which shows that after 2020, the increase of scientific-technical progress will be negative.Scientific novelty: a model is proposed of the scientific-technical progress indicator showing the growth rate of the capital productivity ratio to the saving rate; a differential model of macroeconomic growth is obtained, which endogenously takes cyclicity into account.Practical significance: the differential growth model can be used to predict the macroeconomic dynamics, including economic crises, for the strategic regulation of the economy and elaboration of state programs of economic development

Mechanisms of Coordinated Distribution of the Effect from Export/Import Transactions

Economic mathematical model for coordinating economic interests of the regions (companies) and state budgets within the system of export/import transactions is developed. Nash equilibrium mechanisms for hierarchical and nonhierarchical coordination of effect distribution and mechanism of comprehensive coordination of export/import indicators are presented. The author has developed a two-sector model of export/import transactions and the optimal mechanisms for it. There has been carried out a simulation of coordination mechanisms for crude oil (Russia) and oil extraction equipment (Germany). Keywords: export, import, coordination model, effect distribution mechanism, hierarchical system, nonhierarchical system, Nash equilibrium. JEL Classifications: O150; E660; R13

Laser Therapy in Correction of Optimization of Surgical Endointoxication

The problem of endointoxication remains one of the most urgent in modern surgery. The severity of the intoxication syndrome is determined not only by the intensity of the entry of toxic substances into the bloodstream from the lesion focus, but also by the adequacy of the functioning of the main mechanisms of detoxification - elimination of toxins. Clinical and laboratory studies of 62 patients with acute peritonitis were performed. To this end, daily sessions of laser therapy with “Matrix” were conducted for 5 days after the operation, using a head of KLO3 (radiation with a wavelength of 635 nm, 2 mW). Laser irradiation of blood through the skin in the projection of the ulnar vein was performed for 30 minutes. Using laser therapy for patients with acute peritonitis led to the reduction of the endogenous intoxication severity. The level of medium-mass molecules (λ = 280 nm) decreased by 13.3-26.2% compared to the control, the level of average-weight molecules (λ = 254 nm) decreased by 15.5-32.6% (p <0.05) against the background of laser therapy. Thus, the use of laser therapy in patients with acute peritonitis has led to a decrease in the severity of endogenous intoxication. One of the significant components of this treatment is its ability to improve microcirculation and, as a result, to correct lipid peroxidation and hypoxia, which reduces catabolic phenomena (one of the sources of endogenous intoxication). Clinical and laboratory studies have established that the effectiveness of such treatment decreases with severe forms of peritonitis

THE ALGORITHM FOR DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION OF THE PRODUCTION CYCLE IN BEARING INDUSTRY

Abstract. The authors consider the problems in production resources optimization planning by production cycle criteria inside the business process of industrial companies working in the interim manufacturing sectors. The authors have worked-out the models of static and dynamic order optimization for the company production resources in view of pricing and process restrictions. We have also developed the production cycle mechanism optimization to be used in simulating the optimum programs for the companies that work in Russian bearing industry. Keywords: optimization model, optimum planning mechanism, production cycle, static model, dynamic model, net cost. Citation: Geraskin MI, Egorova VV. The algorithm for dynamic optimization of the production cycle when custom planning in industry

Methodology of urological therapy categoral factors parametrization for evaluation of the therapy efficiency

Рассматривается проблема оптимизации лечебного процесса мочекаменной болезни по критериям прогнозируемого результата лечения и ожидаемой продолжительности госпитализации. Разработана методика параметризации категориальных факторов урологической терапии, позволяющая использовать коэффициенты ранговой корреляции Спирмена для выявления тесноты связи этих факторов с результатами лечения с целью дальнейшего построения регрессионных моделей эффективности терапии. The article considers the problem of the urolithiasis treatment process optimization by the criteria of the predicted result of treatment and the expected duration of hospitalization. The author suggests technique of parametrization of the urological therapy categorical factors. The technique allows to use Spearman's rank correlation coefficients for revealing closeness of connection of these factors with results of treatment. The outcomes of the research could be used for the further construction of regression models of the therapy efficiency