Carbon and nitrogen pools in thermokarst-affected permafrost landscapes in Arctic Siberia

Ice rich Yedoma-dominated landscapes store considerable amounts of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) and are vulnerable to degradation under climate warming. We investigate the C and N pools in two thermokarst-affected Yedoma landscapes – on Sobo-Sise Island and on Bykovsky Peninsula in the North of East Siberia. Soil cores up to three meters depth were collected along geomorphic gradients and analysed for organic C and N contents. A high vertical sampling density in the profiles allowed the calculation of C and N stocks for short soil column intervals and enhanced understanding of within-core parameter variability. Profile-level C and N stocks were scaled to the landscape level based on landform classifications from five-meter resolution, multispectral RapidEye satellite imagery. Mean landscape C and N storage in the first meter of soil for Sobo-Sise Island is estimated to be 20.2 kg C m−2 and 1.8 kg N m−2 and for Bykovsky Peninsula 25.9 kg C m−2 and 2.2 kg N m−2. Radiocarbon dating demonstrates the Holocene age of thermokarst basin deposits but also suggests the presence of thick Holocene aged cover layers which can reach up to two meters on top of intact Yedoma landforms. Reconstructed sedimentation rates of 0.10 mm yr−1–0.57 mm yr−1 suggest sustained mineral soil accumulation across all investigated landforms. Both Yedoma and thermokarst landforms are characterized by limited accumulation of organic soil layers (peat). We further estimate that an active layer deepening by about 100 cm will increase organic C availability in a seasonally thawed state in the two study areas by ~ 5.8 Tg (13.2 kg C m−2). Our study demonstrates the importance of increasing the number of C and N storage inventories in ice-rich Yedoma and thermokarst environments in order to account for high variability of permafrost and thermokarst environments in pan-permafrost soil C and N pool estimates

Ponding vs. baydzherakh formation on Yedoma uplands: Implications for modern thermokarst development and thaw subsidence in North Yakutia

Permafrost landscapes of Northern Yakutia recently experienced a widespread warming of mean annual air temperatures and mean positive daily air temperatures during the arctic summer (Federov et al, 2014). Especially in the tundra zone this has led to increased active layer thickness (ALT) and suggests that thermokarst processes reactivate or intensify. However, particularly in the light of the enormous area underlain by ice and carbon-rich permafrost, still only few observations of permafrost-thaw related landscape dynamics exist. Permafrost degradation has consequences for local hydrology, ecosystems, biogeochemical cycling, and sometimes communities. For example in East Siberia, widespread and irreversible thaw subsidence of up to 11 cm per year has been detected on the arctic island Muostakh (Günther et al., 2015), where coastal erosion at average rates of 1.8 m/yr has not only reduced the island’s area by 25% over more than 60 years, but also provides a constant renewal of the erosional base. In this case, favorable drainage conditions provide the prerequisite for active layer thickness deepening during warm summers, when ground ice stability thresholds are exceeded and ground ice thaw and subsequent terrain lowering take place. Our combined approach of ground-based ALT measurements and remote sensing-derived observations of elevation change revealed an inverse connection of shallow seasonal thaw and strong long-term subsidence, which is related to the minimum depth where permafrost thaw encounters pure ground ice bodies. In this study, we focus not only on monitoring thermokarst and subsidence, but also aim to find commonalities and differences of change or no change on yedoma uplands, slopes, and thaw depressions on the landscape scale using multi-temporal digital elevation models (DEMs) from historical aerial photographies, modern satellite stereo imagery, and on-site repeat laser scanning campaigns. In this context, a best practice strategy for remote sensing data fusion combining 2D and 3D information from very high resolution imagery (GeoEye, WorldView, Kompsat, Alos Prism), complemented by local field measurements (meterology, ground temperature, geodetic surveys) on the Bykovsky Peninsula and Sobo-Sise in the Lena Delta, has been developed. In order to capture a large variety of sites across the Yedoma region, additional sites at Cape Mamontov Klyk in the Anabar-Olenyok Lowland, Bolshoy Lyakhovsky on the New Siberian Islands, and Cape Maliy Chukochiy in the Kolyma Lowland with less or no topographical ground control, were considered from the perspective of larger areal coverage. Our high spatial resolution monitoring for the last decades and in comparison for the last years, shows that the current relief development in ice-rich permafrost enhances not only drainage of thermokarst lakes, but also drainage of the entire terrain, which leads to the formation of thermokarst mounds (baydzherakhs) on slopes of yedoma uplands. In contrast, simultaneous ponding on poorly drained massive Yedoma blocks in immediate proximity, suggests thermokarst development. However, formation of new thermokarst lakes on yedoma uplands is limited by topographical and stratigraphical constraints (Morgenstern et al., 2011). Geomorphological mapping of Yedoma and Alas surfaces, baydzherakh fields and areas of newly formed ponds allows to differentiate and link observed topographical changes to specific processes of either thermokarst or denudation. First results show that widespread modern baydzherakh formation is indicative for large-scale permafrost thaw subsidence on yedoma uplands. References: Morgenstern, A., Grosse, G., Günther, F., Fedorova, I. & L. Schirrmeister [2011]: Spatial analyses of thermokarst lakes and basins in Yedoma landscapes of the Lena Delta, The Cryosphere, 5, 849-867, doi:10.5194/tc-5-849-2011. Günther, F., Overduin, P.P., Yakshina, I.A., Opel, T., Baranskaya, A.V. & M.N. Grigoriev [2015]: Observing Muostakh disappear: permafrost thaw subsidence and erosion of a ground-ice-rich island in response to arctic summer warming and sea ice reduction, The Cryosphere, 9, 151-178, doi:10.5194/tc-9-151-2015

Elevation Change Detection for Quantification of Extensive Permafrost Thaw Subsidence in East Siberian Coastal Lowlands

Permanently frozen ground in the Arctic is being destabilized by continuing permafrost degradation, an indicator of climate change in the northern high latitudes. Accelerated coastal erosion due to sea ice reduction and an increased intensity of ground settlement through ground ice melt caused by rising summer air temperatures result in widespread geomorphological activity. The objective of our study is to analyze time series of repeat terrestrial laser scanning (rLiDAR) for quantification of extensive land surface lowering through thaw subsidence, which is the main unknown in terms of recent landscape development in the vast but neglected coastal lowlands of the East Siberian Arctic. These in-situ data provide the basis for calibration and validation of large scale surface change assessments using very high resolution space-borne elevation data with high precision. Complementing our surveys, we conducted botanical mapping. This allows us to relate elevation differences to specific surface conditions and enhances our capabilities to extrapolate our local observations to larger areas through land-cover classifications of multispectral remote sensing data such as Sentinel-2. Additionally, highly detailed digital elevation models (DEMs) with sub-metre accuracy have been photogrammetrically derived from satellite stereo data. These DEMs contain valuable terrain height information for 3D change detection, in case of DEMs representing the state of a study area at different points in time. The results show that elevation differences are almost always negative. When calculated as rates over time, land surface lowering in the ground-ice-rich Siberian coastal lowlands permafrost amounts to 3-10 cm per year

Rapid Fluvio-Thermal Erosion of a Yedoma Permafrost Cliff in the Lena River Delta

The degradation of ice-rich permafrost deposits has the potential to release large amounts of previously freeze-locked carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) with local implications, such as affecting riverine and near-shore ecosystems, but also global impacts such as the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Here, we study the rapid erosion of the up to 27.7 m high and 1,660 m long Sobo-Sise yedoma cliff in the Lena River Delta using a remote sensing-based time-series analysis covering 53 years and calculate the mean annual sediment as well as C and N release into the Lena River. We find that the Sobo-Sise yedoma cliff, which exposes ice-rich late Pleistocene to Holocene deposits, had a mean long-term (1965–2018) erosion rate of 9.1 m yr–1 with locally and temporally varying rates of up to 22.3 m yr–1. These rates are among the highest measured erosion rates for permafrost coastal and river shoreline stretches. The fluvio-thermal erosion led to the release of substantial amounts of C (soil organic carbon and dissolved organic carbon) and N to the river system. On average, currently at least 5.2 × 106 kg organic C and 0.4 × 106 kg N were eroded annually (2015–2018) into the Lena River. The observed sediment and organic matter erosion was persistent over the observation period also due to the specific configuration of river flow direction and cliff shore orientation. Our observations highlight the importance to further study rapid fluvio-thermal erosion processes in the permafrost region, also because our study shows increasing erosion rates at Sobo-Sise Cliff in the most recent investigated time periods. The organic C and N transport from land to river and eventually to the Arctic Ocean from this and similar settings may have severe implications on the biogeochemistry and ecology of the near-shore zone of the Laptev Sea as well as for turnover and rapid release of old C and N to the atmosphere

Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area

Extreme precipitation is a weather phenomenon with tremendous damaging potential for property and human life. As the intensity and frequency of such events is projected to increase in a warming climate, there is an urgent need to advance the existing knowledge on extreme precipitation processes, statistics and impacts across scales. To this end, a working group within the Germany-based project, ClimXtreme, has been established to carry out multidisciplinary analyses of high-impact events. In this work, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event (HPE) affecting the Berlin metropolitan region (Germany), from the meteorological, impacts and climate perspectives, including climate change attribution. Our analysis showed that this event occurred under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough over western Europe and two shortwave surface lows over Britain and Poland (Rasmund and Rasmund II), inducing relevant low-level wind convergence along the German–Polish border. Over 11 000 convective cells were triggered, starting early morning 29 June, displacing northwards slowly under the influence of a weak tropospheric flow (10 m s−1 at 500 hPa). The quasi-stationary situation led to totals up to 196 mm d−1, making this event the 29 June most severe in the 1951–2021 climatology, ranked by means of a precipitation-based index. Regarding impacts, it incurred the largest insured losses in the period 2002 to 2017 (EUR 60 million) in the greater Berlin area. We provide further insights on flood attributes (inundation, depth, duration) based on a unique household-level survey data set. The major moisture source for this event was the Alpine–Slovenian region (63 % of identified sources) due to recycling of precipitation falling over that region 1 d earlier. Implementing three different generalised extreme value (GEV) models, we quantified the return periods for this case to be above 100 years for daily aggregated precipitation, and up to 100 and 10 years for 8 and 1 h aggregations, respectively. The conditional attribution demonstrated that warming since the pre-industrial era caused a small but significant increase of 4 % in total precipitation and 10 % for extreme intensities. The possibility that not just greenhouse-gas-induced warming, but also anthropogenic aerosols affected the intensity of precipitation is investigated through aerosol sensitivity experiments. Our multi-disciplinary approach allowed us to relate interconnected aspects of extreme precipitation. For instance, the link between the unique meteorological conditions of this case and its very large return periods, or the extent to which it is attributable to already-observed anthropogenic climate change.</p

Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area

Extreme precipitation is a weather phenomenon with tremendous damaging potential for property and human life. As the intensity and frequency of such events is projected to increase in a warming climate, there is an urgent need to advance the existing knowledge on extreme precipitation processes, statistics and impacts across scales. To this end, a working group within the Germany-based project, ClimXtreme, has been established to carry out multidisciplinary analyses of high-impact events. In this work, we provide a comprehensive assessment of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event (HPE) affecting the Berlin metropolitan region (Germany), from the meteorological, impacts and climate perspectives, including climate change attribution. Our analysis showed that this event occurred under the influence of a mid-tropospheric trough over western Europe and two shortwave surface lows over Britain and Poland (Rasmund and Rasmund II), inducing relevant low-level wind convergence along the German–Polish border. Over 11 000 convective cells were triggered, starting early morning 29 June, displacing northwards slowly under the influence of a weak tropospheric flow (10 m s$^{−1}$ at 500 hPa). The quasi-stationary situation led to totals up to 196 mm d$^{−1}$, making this event the 29 June most severe in the 1951–2021 climatology, ranked by means of a precipitation-based index. Regarding impacts, it incurred the largest insured losses in the period 2002 to 2017 (EUR 60 million) in the greater Berlin area. We provide further insights on flood attributes (inundation, depth, duration) based on a unique household-level survey data set. The major moisture source for this event was the Alpine–Slovenian region (63 % of identified sources) due to recycling of precipitation falling over that region 1 d earlier. Implementing three different generalised extreme value (GEV) models, we quantified the return periods for this case to be above 100 years for daily aggregated precipitation, and up to 100 and 10 years for 8 and 1 h aggregations, respectively. The conditional attribution demonstrated that warming since the pre-industrial era caused a small but significant increase of 4 % in total precipitation and 10 % for extreme intensities. The possibility that not just greenhouse-gas-induced warming, but also anthropogenic aerosols affected the intensity of precipitation is investigated through aerosol sensitivity experiments. Our multi-disciplinary approach allowed us to relate interconnected aspects of extreme precipitation. For instance, the link between the unique meteorological conditions of this case and its very large return periods, or the extent to which it is attributable to already-observed anthropogenic climate change

Protein p16 as a marker of dysplastic and neoplastic alterations in cervical epithelial cells

BACKGROUND: Cervical carcinomas are second most frequent type of women cancer. Success in diagnostics of this disease is due to the use of Pap-test (cytological smear analysis). However Pap-test gives significant portion of both false-positive and false-negative conclusions. Amendments of the diagnostic procedure are desirable. Aetiological role of papillomaviruses in cervical cancer is established while the role of cellular gene alterations in the course of tumor progression is less clear. Several research groups including us have recently named the protein p16(INK4a )as a possible diagnostic marker of cervical cancer. To evaluate whether the specificity of p16(INK4a )expression in dysplastic and neoplastic cervical epithelium is sufficient for such application we undertook a broader immunochistochemical registration of this protein with a highly p16(INK4a)-specific monoclonal antibody. METHODS: Paraffin-embedded samples of diagnostic biopsies and surgical materials were used. Control group included vaginal smears of healthy women and biopsy samples from patients with cervical ectopia. We examined 197 samples in total. Monoclonal antibody E6H4 (MTM Laboratories, Germany) was used. RESULTS: In control samples we did not find any p16(INK4a)-positive cells. Overexpression of p16(INK4a )was detected in samples of cervical dysplasia (CINs) and carcinomas. The portion of p16(INK4a)-positive samples increased in the row: CIN I – CIN II – CIN III – invasive carcinoma. For all stages the samples were found to be heterogeneous with respect to p16(INK4a)-expression. Every third of CINs III and one invasive squamous cell carcinoma (out of 21 analyzed) were negative. CONCLUSIONS: Overexpression of the protein p16(INK4a )is typical for dysplastic and neoplastic epithelium of cervix uteri. However p16(INK4a)-negative CINs and carcinomas do exist. All stages of CINs and carcinomas analyzed are heterogeneous with respect to p16(INK4a )expression. So p16(INK4a)-negativity is not a sufficient reason to exclude a patient from the high risk group. As far as normal cervical epithelium is p16(INK4a)-negative and the ratio p16(INK4a)-positive/ p16(INK4a)-negative samples increases at the advanced stages application of immunohisto-/cytochemical test for p16(INK4a )may be regarded as a supplementary test for early diagnostics of cervical cancer