How Informative are the Subjective Density Forecasts of Macroeconomists?

In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the information content of subjective expert density forecasts using micro data from the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of scoring functions which evaluate the entire predictive densities, including an evaluation of the impact of density features such as their location, spread, skew and tail risk on density forecast performance. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in the performance of the surveyed densities at the individual level. Relative to a set of crude benchmark alternatives, this performance is somewhat better for GDP growth than for inflation, although in the former case it diminishes substantially with the forecast horizon. In addition, relative to the proposed benchmarks, we report evidence of some improvement in the performance of expert densities during the recent period of macroeconomic volatility. However, our analysis also reveals clear evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in the expert probability assessments, as reflected also in frequent occurrences of events which are assigned a zero probability. Moreover, higher moment features of the expert densities, such as their skew or the degree of probability mass in their tails, are shown not to contribute significantly to improvements in individual density forecast performance.density forecasts, forecast evaluation, real-time data, Survey of Professional Forecasters

Full Disclosure: Why Bank Transparency Matters

This report seeks to reinvigorate the debate on bank disclosure in the UK and to create a better understanding of why it should be demanded of banks. This analysis is carried out through detailed case studies comparing Charter One Bank in Chicago in the US where banks have disclosed local lending practices since 1975- with its parent company Royal Bank of Scotland in Manchester to review the level of information available and the impact that this has. To do this we evaluate the available information on small-business lending, bank branch availability and basic bank account opening in underserved areas of Manchester. Our analysis indicates that data on these factors is generally difficult to obtain, inconsistent, and in many cases incomplete

Mare Geneticum : Balancing Governance of Marine Genetic Resources in International Waters

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

How informative are the subjective density forecasts of macroeconomists?

In this paper, we propose a framework to evaluate the information content of subjective expert density forecasts using micro data from the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). A key aspect of our analysis is the use of scoring functions which evaluate the entire predictive densities, including an evaluation of the impact of density features such as their location, spread, skew and tail risk on density forecast performance. Overall, we find considerable heterogeneity in the performance of the surveyed densities at the individual level. Relative to a set of crude benchmark alternatives, this performance is somewhat better for GDP growth than for inflation, although in the former case it diminishes substantially with the forecast horizon. In addition, relative to the proposed benchmarks, we report evidence of some improvement in the performance of expert densities during the recent period of macroeconomic volatility. However, our analysis also reveals clear evidence of overconfidence or neglected risks in the expert probability assessments, as reflected also in frequent occurrences of events which are assigned a zero probability. Moreover, higher moment features of the expert densities, such as their skew or the degree of probability mass in their tails, are shown not to contribute significantly to improvements in individual density forecast performance

An update on effects of creatine supplementation on performance: a review

Supplementary creatine, available in many different forms but most commonly monohydrate, is a legal and reportedly safe to consume nutritional ergogenic aid. After searching internationally recognised research databases, this review provides and update on the current literature on the physiological effects of creatine supplementation on performance whilst also discussing the underlying physiology regarding the synthesis and dietary provision of creatine as well as addressing issues of safety and the ethical considerations of usage. Research has shown that regular consumption of supplementary creatine can raise associated content within skeletal muscle. Subsequently, there is an extensive, and still growing, body of the literature supporting the efficacy of creatine supplementation on enhancing exercise performance, exercise tolerance, muscle strength and lean body mass. Moreover, little scientific evidence exists showing any unfavourable effects on individuals who are free from illness and disease. This review consolidates the current literature and provides application to the athletic setting which is purposeful for those choosing to either recommend or consume this nutritional ergogenic aid. At this current time, a traditional loading and maintenance supplementation protocol is advised as contemporary research studies are still to unravel the benefits of alternative approaches

Intake, growth and meat quality of steers given diets based on varying proportions of maize silage and grass silage

Simmental × Holstein-Friesian steers were offered four forage diets. These comprised grass silage (G); proportionately 0·67 grass silage, proportionately 0·33 maize silage (GGM); 0·33 grass silage, 0·67 maize silage ( MMG); maize silage ( M) from 424 (s.d. = 11·5) kg to slaughter at a minimum weight of 560 kg. Forages were mixed and offered ad libitum. Steers were offered 2 kg of a concentrate daily, the concentrate being formulated such that all steers had similar crude protein intakes across dietary treatments. A sample of steers was slaughtered at the beginning of the experimental period to allow the calculation of the rate of gain of the carcass and its components. Carcass dissection of a sample of steers allowed the development of a prediction equation of carcass composition based on thoracic limb dissection of all carcasses. Forage dry matter intake and live-weight gain increased linearly as maize silage replaced grass silage in the forage mixture, resulting in improvements in food conversion ratio (all P = 0·001). Killing-out proportion increased with maize silage inclusion ( P < 0·001) but fat and conformation scores did not differ significantly between diets. However, increasing maize inclusion in the diet resulted in a greater weight ( P = 0·05) and proportion ( P = 0·008) of fat in the carcass, and significant increases in internal fat deposition. The inclusion of maize led to a progressive increase in the daily gains of carcass ( P < 0·001), and significant increases in the daily gains of both fat ( P < 0·001) and lean tissue ( P < 0·001). Fat colour was more yellow in cattle given diets G and GGM than diets MMG and M ( P < 0·001) and colour intensity was lower on diet M than the other three diets ( P < 0·001). There were no significant differences in any aspects of eating quality between diets. Therefore, maize silage has the potential to reduce the time taken for finishing beef animals to achieve slaughter weight with no apparent detrimental effects on subsequent meat quality

Towards a collective-values framework of ubuntu : implications for workplace commitment

Abstract: This research offers an extension of current research on commitment across cultures. It incorporates the concept of Ubuntu as an integrating model that can be paired up with other perspectives for directing employee workplace commitment. Research Design & Methods: A literature review entailing concepts related to crosscultures and their relationship to Ubuntu and commitment was considered. The review spanning 50 years covered online-databases of global and African research. Findings: We argue here that the conceptualisation of Ubuntu is important in adapting currently accepted cultural frameworks as operationalised by individualism, collectivism and power distance dimensions for regional management application. Ubuntu collective values (compassion, survival, group solidarity, respect and dignity), which relate affirmatively with a sense of workplace collectivism, was identified as a unique element of cultural management philosophy for directing personal interactions, workplace commitment and performance management improvements..

Mergers and Beliefs

We study the combined effects of managerial optimism and market overvaluation on merger premiums and the chosen form of payment. Our empirical results are consistent with market overvaluation and the target manager‘s optimism as having the most influence on mergers. The observed form of payment corresponds to the acquiring manager‘s preferences, suggesting that the acquiring manager dictates the method of payment. Lastly, our model demonstrates why cash mergers are more likely to be hostile, and provides an explanation for why a combination of cash plus stock may be optimal