The El Niño – La Niña cycle and recent trends in supply and demand of net primary productivity in African drylands

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2016. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climatic Change 138 (2016): 111-125, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1730-1.Inter-annual climatic variability over a large portion of sub-Saharan Africa is under the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Extreme variability in climate is a threat to rural livelihoods in sub-Saharan Africa, yet the role of ENSO in the balance between supply and demand of net primary productivity (NPP) over this region is unclear. Here, we analyze the impact of ENSO on this balance in a spatially explicit framework using gridded population data from the WorldPop project, satellite-derived data on NPP supply, and statistical data from the United Nations. Our analyses demonstrate that between 2000 and 2013 fluctuations in the supply of NPP associated with moderate ENSO events average ±2.8 g C m-2 yr-1 across sub-Saharan drylands. The greatest sensitivity is in arid Southern Africa where a +1oC change in the Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature index is associated with a mean change in NPP supply of -6.6 g C m-2 yr-1. Concurrently, the population-driven trend in NPP demand averages 3.5 g C m-2 yr-1 over the entire region with densely populated urban areas exhibiting the highest mean demand for NPP. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for the role ENSO plays in modulating the balance between supply and demand of NPP in sub-Saharan drylands. An important implication of these findings is that increase in NPP demand for socio-economic metabolism must be taken into account within the context of climate-modulated supplyFunding for this project was provided by the Swedish National Space Board (contract no. 100/11 to J.A.). A.M.A. received support from the Royal Physiographic Society in Lund and the Lund University Center for Studies of Carbon Cycle and Climate Interactions (LUCCI). C.C.U. was supported by NSF grant OCE-1203892.2017-07-0

Climate and Food Production: Understanding Vulnerability from Past Trends in Africa’s Sudan-Sahel

Just how influential is rainfall on agricultural production in the Sudan-Sahel of Africa? And, is there evidence that support for small-scale farming can reduce the vulnerability of crop yields to rainfall in these sensitive agro-ecological zones? These questions are explored based on a case study from Cameroon’s Sudan-Sahel region. Climate data for 20 years and crop production data for six major food crops for the same years are used to find patterns of correlation over this time period. Results show a distinction of three periods of climatic influence of agriculture: one period before 1989, another between 1990 and 1999 and the last from 2000 to 2004. The analysis reveals that, while important in setting the enabling biophysical environment for food crop cultivation, the influence of rainfall in agriculture can be diluted by proactive policies that support food production. Proactive policies also reduce the impact of agriculturally relevant climatic shocks, such as droughts on food crop yields over the time-series. These findings emphasize the extent of vulnerability of food crop production to rainfall variations among small-holder farmers in these agro-ecological zones and reinforce the call for the proactive engagement of relevant institutions and support services in assisting the efforts of small-scale food producers in Africa’s Sudan-Sahel. The implications of climate variability on agriculture are discussed within the context of food security with particular reference to Africa’s Sudan-Sahel

Opening the door to social equity : local and participatory approaches to transportation planning in Montreal

Purpose: Transportation systems play a key role in providing individuals with a diversity of means to access their desired destinations and have significant impacts on their quality of life. The social perspective of mobility is, however, marginalized in the current model of transportation planning and significant changes are called for. This study aims to identify the barriers and opportunities of local participatory approaches to trigger changes in transportation planning in Montreal, drawing on the concept of social learning. Methods: A case study approach is selected and the participatory processes of two Local Transportation Plans (LTPs) are analysed. Data is collected through document analysis and semi-structured interviews with local transport planners and representatives of community groups. A qualitative content analysis is conducted to assess the outcomes of public participation, the quality of the processes and the perspectives of participants. Results: The results highlight the narrow contribution of the participation of local communities and community groups in the development of LTPs. Furthermore, the participatory process assessed in this research allows for a limited integration of social aspects in the planning process. The main barriers lie in the broader planning context and the organizational structure at the borough level as well as the lack of expertise of the community groups. Nevertheless, LTPs provide a window of opportunity for addressing transport-related social aspects. Conclusion: In order to take advantage of this opportunity and foster social learning towards the desired changes, the process requires the inclusion of clear social equity goals at the metropolitan level. Furthermore, the presence of a skilled facilitator is key to support the integration of diverse perspectives on transportation planning. It is also essential to provide community groups with resources to meaningfully participate in the process, thereby promoting social equity. In sum, LTPs have the potential to further include the social dimension of transport, but further steps are required to foster an equitable and sustainable transportation system. This research is of relevance to researchers and planners wishing to better understand the challenges associated with participatory processes and social equity in transport planning

Community resilience to natural disasters in the informal settlements in Mwanza City, Tanzania

The impacts of natural disasters on communities living in hazard prone areas are wide ranging and complex. In Mwanza, steep slopes, rocky hills and river valleys are inhabited by society's poorest people. These areas are prone to natural disasters. Residents have accumulated coping mechanisms for disaster risks and impact reduction. We combine spatial data, household surveys and data from focus groups to identify and rank areas based on their exposure to major disasters. We also examine household and communal mitigation efforts in relation to these disasters. Most areas of the city are exposed to at least one of the natural disasters studied. Pre- and post-disaster risk reduction measures are influenced by the site of homesteads and the socioeconomic situation of households. Current resilience measures are skewed towards the development of physical infrastructure. The challenge of reducing disaster risks in Mwanza involves recognizing the role of non-infrastructure based factors that promote urban resilience to natural disasters

Community resilience to natural disasters in the informal settlements in Mwanza City, Tanzania

<p>The impacts of natural disasters on communities living in hazard prone areas are wide ranging and complex. In Mwanza, steep slopes, rocky hills and river valleys are inhabited by society's poorest people. These areas are prone to natural disasters. Residents have accumulated coping mechanisms for disaster risks and impact reduction. We combine spatial data, household surveys and data from focus groups to identify and rank areas based on their exposure to major disasters. We also examine household and communal mitigation efforts in relation to these disasters. Most areas of the city are exposed to at least one of the natural disasters studied. Pre- and post-disaster risk reduction measures are influenced by the site of homesteads and the socioeconomic situation of households. Current resilience measures are skewed towards the development of physical infrastructure. The challenge of reducing disaster risks in Mwanza involves recognizing the role of non-infrastructure based factors that promote urban resilience to natural disasters.</p

Paths to Attaining Food Security: The Case of Cameroon

This paper sets out to develop a framework for characterizing agricultural growth orientations. We identify four main components in the global food system (technology, institutions, people, and natural resources). Based on the extent to which any two of these components are important in driving the growth of agriculture, we distinguish four main orientations of agricultural growth: local food, high resource-technology driven, guided technology driven, and right-to-food growth orientations. Given the social and environmental challenges that agricultural growth has to meet in Cameroon, we argue that the local food orientation and guided technology-driven orientation offer better opportunities for meeting the problem of food security in this country

The unusual suspects? Perception of underlying causes of anthropogenic climate change in coastal communities in Cambodia and Tanzania

Public perception of the underlying causes of anthropogenic climate change is a complex and subjective issue that is critical to effective risk communication. This issue is important to scientists and policymakers because of the role of individual perceptions in influencing their protective behaviour towards risk (e.g., the adoption of climate risk reduction and mitigation strategies). This cross-sectional study elucidated people's perceptions of the underlying causes of human-induced climate change in coastal communities in Cambodia and Tanzania. The multinomial logistic regression model was based on a geographically and demographically stratified national sample of 3,706 individuals conducted between March and September 2013. The distribution of the fundamental causes of anthropogenic climate change in the pooled sample was deforestation (29%), overpopulation – births and immigration (18%), greenhouse gas emissions (12%), illegal resource extraction (14%), and God's will and transgressing cultural norms (26%). Few people in both countries believed that, the usual suspect, greenhouse gas emission was the fundamental cause of anthropogenic climate change. The number of poor rural residents who indicated that deforestation was the major underlying cause of climate change was approximately three times more than members of the same sub-group who noted that greenhouse gas emissions were the underlying cause of climate change. People who had tertiary education were less likely to consider God's will and transgressing cultural norms as the underlying cause of anthropogenic climate change rather than attributing it to greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, it is imperative to mainstream climate change into educational curricula in both countries