Mitigation measures in the Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector. Quantifying mitigation effects at the farm level and in national greenhouse gas inventories

This document analyses potential greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation measures in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU) sector, looking at their reportability with the IPCC methods. The main conclusions that can be drawn from this analysis are: • Mitigation strategies target either ‘observation’ or ‘parameter’ • Data changes usually have an effect on more than one emission category • All mitigation measures impact farmer’s income • Mitigation measures can be grouped in mitigation mechanism groups • Measures using the mitigation strategy ‘observation’ are relatively straight-forward to be traced in GHG inventories, some with additional data collection required • Measures using the mitigation strategy ‘parameter’ often require research programs to develop (national) differentiated emission factors • Assessing mitigation measures at the farm level is easier at the level of mitigation mechanism groups than at the level of individual mitigation measures • A modular GHG calculator tool would provide highest flexibility for farm level GHG monitoringJRC.D.5-Food Securit

European anthropogenic AFOLU emissions and their uncertainties: a review and benchmark data

Emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) and removals from land, including both anthropogenic and natural fluxes, require reliable quantification, along with estimates of their inherent uncertainties, in order to support credible mitigation action under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a state-of-the-art scientific overview of bottom-up anthropogenic emissions data from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) in Europe. The data integrates recent AFOLU emission inventories with ecosystem data and land carbon models, covering the European Union (EU28) and summarizes GHG emissions and removals over the period 1990–2016, of relevance for UNFCCC. This compilation of bottom-up estimates of the AFOLU GHG emissions of European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGI) with those of land carbon models and observation-based estimates of large-scale GHG fluxes, aims at improving the overall estimates of the GHG balance in Europe with respect to land GHG emissions and removals. Particular effort is devoted to the estimation of uncertainty, its propagation and role in the comparison of different estimates. While NGHGI data for EU28 provides consistent quantification of uncertainty following the established IPCC guidelines, uncertainty in the estimates produced with other methods will need to account for both within model uncertainty and the spread from different model results. At EU28 level, the largest inconsistencies between estimates are mainly due to different sources of data related to human activity which result in emissions or removals taking place during a given period of time (IPCC 2006) referred here as activity data (AD) and methodologies (Tiers) used for calculating emissions/removals from AFOLU sectors. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualised at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3460311, Petrescu et al., 2019

Environmental footprint family to address local to planetary sustainability and deliver on the SDGs

peer-reviewedThe number of publications on environmental footprint indicators has been growing rapidly, but with limited efforts to integrate different footprints into a coherent framework. Such integration is important for comprehensive understanding of environmental issues, policy formulation and assessment of trade-offs between different environmental concerns. Here, we systematize published footprint studies and define a family of footprints that can be used for the assessment of environmental sustainability. We identify overlaps between different footprints and analyse how they relate to the nine planetary boundaries and visualize the crucial information they provide for local and planetary sustainability. In addition, we assess how the footprint family delivers on measuring progress towards Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), considering its ability to quantify environmental pressures along the supply chain and relating them to the water-energy-food-ecosystem (WEFE) nexus and ecosystem services. We argue that the footprint family is a flexible framework where particular members can be included or excluded according to the context or area of concern. Our paper is based upon a recent workshop bringing together global leading experts on existing environmental footprint indicators

Short-term changes in klotho and FGF23 in heart failure with reduced ejection fraction—a substudy of the DAPA-VO2 study

The klotho and fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23) pathway is implicated in cardiovascular pathophysiology. This substudy aimed to assess the changes in klotho and FGF-23 levels 1-month after dapagliflozin in patients with stable heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). The study included 29 patients (32.2% of the total), with 14 assigned to the placebo group and 15 to the dapagliflozin, as part of the double-blind, randomized clinical trial [DAPA-VO2 (NCT04197635)]. Blood samples were collected at baseline and after 30 days, and Klotho and FGF-23 levels were measured using ELISA Kits. Between-treatment changes (raw data) were analyzed by using the Mann-Whitney test and expressed as median (p25%–p75%). Linear regression models were utilized to analyze changes in the logarithm (log) of klotho and FGF-23. The median age was 68.3 years (60.8–72.1), with 79.3% male and 81.5% classified as NYHA II. The baseline medians of left ventricular ejection fraction, glomerular filtration rate, NT-proBNP, klotho, and FGF-23 were 35.8% (30.5–37.8), 67.4 ml/min/1.73 m2 (50.7–82.8), 1,285 pg/ml (898–2,305), 623.4 pg/ml (533.5–736.6), and 72.6 RU/ml (62.6–96.1), respectively. The baseline mean peak oxygen uptake was 13.1 ± 4.0 ml/kg/min. Compared to placebo, patients on dapagliflozin showed a significant median increase of klotho [Δ+29.5, (12.9–37.2); p = 0.009] and a non-significant decrease of FGF-23 [Δ−4.6, (−1.7 to −5.4); p = 0.051]. A significant increase in log-klotho (p = 0.011) and a decrease in log-FGF-23 (p = 0.040) were found in the inferential analysis. In conclusion, in patients with stable HFrEF, dapagliflozin led to a short-term increase in klotho and a decrease in FGF-23

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Unveiling the potential for an efficient use of nitrogen along the food supply and consumption chain

Ensuring global food security is one of the challenges of our society. Nitrogen availability is key for food production, while contributing to different environmental impacts. This paper aims firstly to assess nitrogen flows and to highlight hotspots of inefficient use of nitrogen along the European food chain, excluding primary production. Secondly, it aims to analyse the potential for reducing the identified inefficiencies and increase nitrogen circularity. A baseline and three scenarios-reflecting waste targets reported in EU legislation and technological improvements- are analysed. Results highlighted a potential to reduce reactive nitrogen emissions up to more than 45%. However, this would imply the conversion of reactive nitrogen in molecular nitrogen, such as urea, before re-entering in the food chain. Techniques to harvest reactive nitrogen directly from urine and wastewater are considered promising to increase nitrogen use efficiency along the food chain

Unveiling the potential for an efficient use of nitrogen along the food supply and consumption chain

Ensuring global food security is one of the challenges of our society. Nitrogen availability has is key for food production, while contributing to different environmental impacts. This paper aims firstly to assess nitrogen flows and highlight hotspots of inefficient use of nitrogen along the European food chain. Secondly, it aims to analyse the potential for reducing the identified inefficiencies. A baseline and two scenarios, reflecting waste targets reported in EU legislation and improvements in wastewater treatments are analysed. Results highlighted a potential to reduce reactive nitrogen emissions up to more than 40%. However, this would imply the conversion of reactive nitrogen in molecular nitrogen, which has to be converted other forms before re-entering in the food chain. Techniques to harvest reactive nitrogen directly for urine and wastewater are considered promising to increase nitrogen use efficiency along the food chain.JRC.D.1-Bio-econom

Surface freshwater limitation explains worst rice production anomaly in India in 2002

Abstract: India is the second-most populous country and the second-most important producer of rice of the world. Most Indian rice largely depends on the monsoon timing and dynamics. In fact, 2002 was the year with lowest monsoon in the last 130+ year and the worst year for rice production recorded by FAOSTAT from 1961 to 2014. In that year, freshwater limitation was blamed as responsible for the yield losses in the southeastern coastal regions. Given the important implication for local food security and international market stability, we investigate the specific pathways of the effects that this extreme meteorological drought produced on rice yield at the national and regional levels. We integrate up-to-date climate indicators, output from hydrological model and observations from satellites for the different rice cropping cycles. The main findings show how the severe agronomical drought affected rice fields during the two main cropping cycles, one of which adopting structural irrigation, due to the lack of local precipitation and/or precipitation accumulated previously at distant locations in the upstream basins. This research highlights the need of considering the non-local freshwater dynamics in determining the soil moisture conditions in rice fields for yields assessment, modeling and forecasting.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

Marginal abatement cost curves for agricultural climate policy: State-of-the art, lessons learnt and future potential

Combatting climate change has risen to the top of the international policy discourse. Effective governance necessitates the generation of concise information on the costs-effectiveness of policy instruments aimed at reducing atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) approach is a framework commonly used to summarise information of potential mitigation effort, and can help in identifying the most cost-effective managerial and technological GHG mitigation options. Agriculture offers key opportunities to mitigate GHG emissions and utilise carbon (C) sink potentials. Therefore, a number of countries have developed national agricultural MACCs in the last decade. Whilst these MACCs have undoubtedly been catalysers for the information exchange between science and policy, they have also accentuated a range of constraints and limitations. In response, each of the scientific teams developed solutions in an attempt to address one or more of these limitations. These solutions represent ‘lessons learned’ which are invaluable for the development of future MACCs. To consolidate and harness this knowledge that has heretofore been dispersed across countries, this paper reviews the engineering agricultural MACCs developed in European countries. We collate the state-of-the-art, review the lessons learnt, and provide a more coherent framework for countries or research groups embarking on a trajectory to develop an agricultural MACC that assesses mitigations both within the farm gate and to the wider bioeconomy. We highlight the contemporary methodological developments, specifically on 1) the emergence of stratified MACCs; 2) accounting for soil carbon sequestration 3) accounting for upstream and downstream emissions; 4) the development of comprehensive cost-calculations; 5) accounting for environmental co-effects and 6) uncertainty analyses. We subsequently discuss how the mitigation potential summarised by MACCs can be incentivised in practice and how this mitigation can be captured in national inventories. We conclude that the main purpose of engineering MACCs is not necessarily the accurate prediction of the total abatement potential and associated costs, but rather the provision of a coherent forum for the complex discussions surrounding agricultural GHG mitigation, and to visualise opportunities and low-hanging fruit in a single graphic and manuscript.JRC.D.5-Food Securit

Regionalisation of Nitrogen Balances with the CAPRI Model (RegNiBal): Pilot project in support of the Eurostat Working Group on Agri-Environmental Indicators

The report presents the results of the pilot project “Regionalisation of Gross Nitrogen Balances with the CAPRI model” (RegNiBal), which was carried out by Joint Research Centre in cooperation with Eurostat and delegates from the volunteering countries (France, Germany, Hungary and Italy). The objective of the pilot project was to evaluate the differences between national Eurostat/OECD Gross Nitrogen Balances (GNB) and the GNB calculated using the CAPRI model, with the overall goal of using the CAPRI model to (operationally) provide regional GNB data to complement the national GNBs.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource