Salt-marsh testate amoebae as precise and widespread indicators of sea-level change

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this record.Salt-marsh sediments are routinely used to reconstruct sea-level changes over past millennia. These reconstructions bridge an important gap between geological and instrumental sea-level records, and provide insights into the role of atmospheric, oceanic, climatic and anthropogenic sea-level drivers, thereby improving understanding of contemporary and future sea-level changes. Salt-marsh foraminifera, diatoms and testate amoebae are three of the proxies capable of accurately reconstructing former sea level over decadal to millennial timescales. Datasets of surface assemblages are collated along elevational gradients to provide modern analogues that can be used to infer former marsh-surface elevations from fossil assemblages. Testate amoebae are the most recently developed proxy and existing studies suggest that they are at least as precise as the two other proxies. This study provides a synthesis of sea-level research using testate amoebae and collates and analyses existing surface datasets of intertidal salt-marsh testate amoebae from sites throughout the North Atlantic. We test the hypothesis that intertidal testate amoebae demonstrate cosmopolitan intertidal zonation across wide geographical areas in a way that is unique to this proxy. Testate amoebae assemblages are harmonised under a unified taxonomy and standardised into a single basin-wide training set suitable for reconstructing sea-level changes from salt-marsh sediments across the North Atlantic. Transfer functions are developed using regression modelling and show comparable performance values to published local training sets of foraminifera, diatoms and testate amoebae. When used to develop recent (last 100 years) sea-level reconstructions for sites in Norway and Quebec, Canada, the testate amoebae-based transfer function demonstrated prediction uncertainties of ± 0.26 m and ± 0.10 m respectively. These uncertainties equate to 10% and 11% of the tidal ranges at each site, which is of comparable precision to other published sea-level reconstructions based on foraminifera or diatoms. There is great scope for further developing intertidal testate amoebae as precise sea-level indicators and their application should be tested at sites beyond the North Atlantic.Our work on salt-marsh testate amoebae was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant GR9/03426 to WRG and DJC) and by Plymouth University studentships (to RLB and TLN). Datasets from the Magdalen Islands were originally collected using funding from the Coastal Geoscience Research Chair at the Université du Québec à Rimouski

Drivers of 20th Century Sea-Level Change in Southern New Zealand Determined from Proxy and Instrumental Records

In this paper we present new proxy-based sea-level reconstructions for southern New Zealand spanning the last millennium. These palaeo sea-level records usefully complement sparse Southern Hemisphere proxy and tide-gauge sea-level datasets and, in combination with instrumental observations, can test hypotheses about the drivers of 20th century global sea-level change, including land-based ice melt and regional sterodynamics. We develop sea-level transfer functions from regional datasets of salt-marsh foraminifera to establish a new proxy-based sea-level record at Mokomoko Inlet, at the southern tip of the South Island, and to improve the previously published sea-level reconstruction at Pounawea, located about 110 km to the east. Chronologies are based on radiocarbon, radiocaesium, stable lead isotope and pollen analyses. Both records are in good agreement and show a rapid sea-level rise in the first half of the 20th century that peaked in the 1940s. Previously reported discrepancies between proxy-based sea-level records and tide-gauge records are partially reconciled by accounting for barystatic and sterodynamic components of regional sea-level rise. We conclude that the rapid sea-level rise during the mid-20th century along the coast of southern New Zealand was primarily driven by regional thermal expansion and ocean dynamics

The Economic Value of Climate Information in Adaptation Decisions : Learning in the Sea-level Rise and Coastal Infrastructure Context

Traditional methods of investment appraisal have been criticized in the context of climate change adaptation. Economic assessment of adaptation options needs to explicitly incorporate the uncertainty of future climate conditions and should recognise that uncertainties may diminish over time as a result of improved understanding and learning. Real options analysis (ROA) is an appraisal tool developed to incorporate concepts of flexibility and learning that relies on probabilistic data to characterise uncertainties. It is also a relatively resource-intensive decision support tool. We test whether, and to what extent, learning can result from the use of successive generations of real life climate scenarios, and how non-probabilistic uncertainties can be handled through adapting the principles of ROA in coastal economic adaptation decisions. Using a relatively simple form of ROA on a vulnerable piece of coastal rail infrastructure in the United Kingdom, and two successive UK climate assessments, we estimate the values associated with utilising up-dated information on sea-level rise. The value of learning can be compared to the capital cost of adaptation investment, and may be used to illustrate the potential scale of the value of learning in coastal protection, and other adaptation contexts

Can sand dunes be used to study historic storm events?

Knowing the long-term frequency of high magnitude storm events that cause coastal inundation is critical for present coastal management, especially in the context of rising sea levels and potentially increasing frequency and severity of storm events. Coastal sand dunes may provide a sedimentary archive of past storm events from which long-term frequencies of large storms can be reconstructed. This study uses novel portable optically stimulated luminescence (POSL) profiles from coastal dunes to reconstruct the sedimentary archive of storm and surge activity for Norfolk, UK. Application of POSL profiling with supporting luminescence ages and particle size analysis to coastal dunes provides not only information of dunefield evolution but also on past coastal storms. In this study, seven storm events, two major, were identified from the dune archive spanning the last 140 years. These appear to correspond to historical reports of major storm surges. Dunes appear to be only recording (at least at the sampling resolution used here) the highest storm levels that were associated with significant flooding. As such the approach seems to hold promise to obtain a better understanding of the frequency of large storms by extending the dune archive records further back to times when documentation of storm surges was sparse

Reconstruction of recent sea-level change using testate amoebae

Reproduced with permission of the publisher. Copyright © 2009 University of Washington Published by Elsevier Inc.Proxy-based sea-level reconstructions place the instrumentally observed rates of recent sea-level rise in a longer term context by providing data that extend the instrumental sea-level record into past centuries. This paper presents the first sea-level reconstructions based on analyses of testate amoebae, to test their ability to produce high-precision reconstructions of past sea level. We present two reconstructions for the past 100 yr from sites in Maine (USA) and Nova Scotia (Canada) based on short cores from salt marshes, and modern training data from North America and the United Kingdom. These are compared with tide-gauge records and reconstructions based on foraminifera from the same cores. The reconstructions show good agreement with both the tide-gauge data and the foraminifera-based reconstructions. The UK data perform well in predicting known elevations of North American surface samples and produce sea-level reconstructions very similar to those based on the North American data, suggesting the methodology is robust across large geographical areas. We conclude that testate amoebae have the potential to provide robust, higher precision sea-level reconstructions for the past few centuries if modern transfer functions are improved and core sites are located within the main zone of testate amoebae occurrence on the salt marsh

Drivers of 20th century sea-level change in southern New Zealand determined from proxy and instrumental records

In this paper we present new proxy-based sea-level reconstructions for southern New Zealand spanning the last millennium. These palaeo sea-level records usefully complement sparse Southern Hemisphere proxy and tide-gauge sea-level datasets and, in combination with instrumental observations, can test hypotheses about the drivers of 20th century global sea-level change, including land-based ice melt and regional sterodynamics. We develop sea-level transfer functions from regional datasets of salt-marsh foraminifera to establish a new proxy-based sea-level record at Mokomoko Inlet, at the southern tip of the South Island, and to improve the previously published sea-level reconstruction at Pounawea, located about 110 km to the east. Chronologies are based on radiocarbon, radiocaesium, stable lead isotope and pollen analyses. Both records are in good agreement and show a rapid sea-level rise in the first half of the 20th century that peaked in the 1940s. Previously reported discrepancies between proxy-based sea-level records and tide-gauge records are partially reconciled by accounting for barystatic and sterodynamic components of regional sea-level rise. We conclude that the rapid sea-level rise during the mid-20th century along the coast of southern New Zealand was primarily driven by regional thermal expansion and ocean dynamics

Palaeo-sea-level and palaeo-ice-sheet databases: Problems, strategies, and perspectives

Sea-level and ice-sheet databases have driven numerous advances in understanding the Earth system. We describe the challenges and offer best strategies that can be adopted to build self-consistent and standardised databases of geological and geochemical information used to archive palaeo-sea-levels and palaeo-ice-sheets. There are three phases in the development of a database: (i) measurement, (ii) interpretation, and (iii) database creation. Measurement should include the objective description of the position and age of a sample, description of associated geological features, and quantification of uncertainties. Interpretation of the sample may have a subjective component, but it should always include uncertainties and alternative or contrasting interpretations, with any exclusion of existing interpretations requiring a full justification. During the creation of a database, an approach based on accessibility, transparency, trust, availability, continuity, completeness, and communication of content (ATTAC3) must be adopted. It is essential to consider the community that creates and benefits from a database. We conclude that funding agencies should not only consider the creation of original data in specific research-question-oriented projects, but also include the possibility of using part of the funding for IT-related and database creation tasks, which are essential to guarantee accessibility and maintenance of the collected data

Nonlinear landscape and cultural response to sea-level rise

Dataset S1 (separate file). Relative sea-level database for Scilly comprising directly dated radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence samples with corresponding metainformation (lithostratigraphy, elevation, depositional environment and indicative meaning interpretations, paleotidal range change and sea-level calculations) following the ‘HOLSEA’ (‘Geographic Variability of Holocene Relative Sea Level’) protocol (Khan et al., 2019*). Dataset S2 (separate file). Table containing pollen results as relative abundance (genus level), modelled ages and age uncertainty for pollen samples, landcover index results (community cluster numbers and nMDS ordination axes 1 and 2), foraminifera results as species counts and transfer function results as paleomarsh elevations with uncertainty (1σ). Foraminifera samples with low test concentrations have indicative ranges (from mean high water neap tides to highest astronomical tides) in place of paleomarsh elevation estimations. Foraminifera abbreviations: H.wil – Haplophragmoides wilbertii ; J.mac – Jadammina macrescens ; M.fus – Miliammina fusca ; P.ipo – Polysaccammina ipohalina ; T.inf – Trochammina infalta ; T.och – Trochammina ochracea ; A.bat - Ammonia batavus ; A.mam – Asterigerinata mamilla ; B.var – Bolivina variablis; E.cri – Elphidium crispum ; E.wil – Elphidium Williamsoni ; F.spp. – Fissurina spp. ; Elphidium spp. ; H.ger – Haynesina germanica ; L.lob – Lobatula lobatula ; O.spp. – Oolha spp. ; Q.sem – Quinqueloculina seminula; R.spp. – Rosalina spp.. Dataset S3 (separate file). Database containing three worksheets for developing archaeological indices for Scilly. ‘SWBritain’ – Radiocarbon dates from Devon and Cornwall used to develop a summed probability distribution curve as an estimate of population demographic variation in Southwest Britain. ‘NWFrance’ - Radiocarbon dates from Brittany and Normandy used to develop a summed probability distribution curve as an estimate of population demography in Northwest France. ‘Scilly’ – Archaeological monuments from Scilly used to develop a probabilistic index of population variability.The article associated with these datasets is located in ORE at: http://hdl.handle.net/10871/123489Rising sea levels have been associated with human migration and behavioral shifts throughout prehistory, often with an emphasis on landscape submergence and consequent societal collapse. However, the assumption that future sea-level rise will drive similar adaptive responses is overly simplistic. Whilst the change from land to sea represents a dramatic and permanent shift for pre-existing human populations, the process of change is driven by a complex set of physical and cultural processes with long transitional phases of landscape and socio-economic change. Here we use reconstructions of prehistoric sea-level rise, paleogeographies, terrestrial landscape change and human population dynamics to show how the gradual inundation of an island archipelago resulted in decidedly non-linear landscape and cultural responses to rising sea-levels. Interpretation of past and future responses to sea-level change requires a better understanding of local physical and societal contexts to assess plausible human response patterns in the future.Historic EnglandWelsh GovernmentHigher Education Funding Council for Wale