Measuring consensus as the midpoint of the central tendency

Federal Open Market Committee ; Forecasting

Energy prices: In the mix or swept under the rug?

Power resources - Prices

FOMC consensus forecasts

In November 2007, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced a change in the way it communicates its view of the economic outlook: It increased the frequency of its forecasts from two to four times per year, and it increased the length of the forecasting horizon from two to three years. The FOMC does not release the individual members' forecasts or standard measures of consensus such as the mean or median. Rather, it continues to release the forecast information as a range of forecasts, both the full range between the high and the low and a central tendency that omits the extreme values. This paper uses individual forecaster data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to mimic the FOMC's method for creating their central tendency. The authors show that the midpoint of the central tendency of the SPF is a reliable measure of the consensus, suggesting that the FOMC reporting method is also a reliable measure of consensus. For the dates when both are available, the authors also compare the relative forecast accuracy of the FOMC and SPF consensus forecasts for output growth and inflation. Overall, the differences in forecast accuracy are too small to be statistically significant.Federal Open Market Committee ; Monetary policy

A tale of two crises

Federal funds rate

Eye to I: Males Recognize Own Eye Movements, Females Inhibit Recognition

Studies show that people can recognize their own movements, such as their own walking (presented in silhouette using point lights), their own drawing (presented as a moving point light), own clapping, and their own piano playing. We extend this result to proprioceptive control, showing that people can recognize their own eye movements, when presented as just a point moving against a black background. Eye movements were recorded using a wearable eye tracking glass, while participants executed four tasks. A week later, participants were shown these videos, alongside another person's videos, for each task, and asked to recognize their own movements. Males recognized their own eye movements significantly above chance, but only for tasks with large and familiar body movements. Females performed below chance in these tasks. We argue that the standard common coding/motor simulation model does not account for this result, and propose an extension where eye movements and body movements are strongly coupled. In this model, eye movements automatically trigger covert motor activation, and thus participate directly in motor planning, simulations and the sense of agenc

Marriage and Migration: Moroccan Women’s Views on Partner Choice, Arranged and Forced Marriage in Belgium

With family reunification as one of the key routes to legally gain entry to the European Union, governments are introducing more stringent legislation to counter abuses such as forced marriages and marriages of convenience. This study explores Moroccan women’s views on partner choice, arranged and forced marriages to ascertain the impact of the migratory context. Moreover, it examined whether the diasporic experience affects the occurrence of forced marriage. Using a participatory approach, focus-group discussions and in-depth interviews were held with women from the Moroccan community in both urban and provincial settings in Flanders, Belgium. Our findings indicate a preference for a partner in Belgium. Religion as opposed to ethnicity emerges as the most important attribute in a partner. Furthermore, religion is also a progressive voice in opinions on forced marriage and the virginity norm. Although forced marriages are no longer a pressing issue among the youth of the Moroccan Belgian community, the immigration legislation and policies that aim to enhance integration and tackle forced marriage and marriages of convenience appear to effectively deter women from choosing a partner from Morocco. Overall, the diasporic experience and migration context do not give rise to an increase of forced marriage among the Moroccan community; yet, arranged marriage is prevalent, even though it is on the decline