Light Fermion Mass Effects in e^+e^- -> 4 Fermions

We investigated the effect of the light fermion masses on cross sections for e^+e^- into 4 fermions in the Fermion Loop scheme defined in hep-ph/9612260, and approximations to it. The effects are found to be very small, except of course in the collinear region of single W-boson production where the electron mass acts as the cut-off.Comment: 8 pages, latex, 3 ps figs include

Unstable particles in One Loop Calculations

We present a gauge invariant way to compute one loop corrections to processes involving the production and decay of unstable particles.Comment: 21 pages latex, <A HREF=http://pss058.psi.ch/preprints/unstablefull.ps>ps file, PSI-PR-93-22, REVISED. (Completely rewritten due to many complaints about the unclear exposition.

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP3 models and related uncertainties in projected summer drying in Europe

This paper discusses uncertainties in model projections of summer drying in the Euro-Mediterranean region related to errors and uncertainties in the simulation of the summer NAO (SNAO). The SNAO is the leading mode of summer SLP variability in the North Atlantic/European sector and modulates precipitation not only in the vicinity of the SLP dipole (northwest Europe) but also in the Mediterranean region. An analysis of CMIP3 models is conducted to determine the extent to which models reproduce the signature of the SNAO and its impact on precipitation and to assess the role of the SNAO in the projected precipitation reductions. Most models correctly simulate the spatial pattern of the SNAO and the dry anomalies in northwest Europe that accompany the positive phase. The models also capture the concurrent wet conditions in the Mediterranean, but the amplitude of this signal is too weak, especially in the east. This error is related to the poor simulation of the upper-level circulation response to a positive SNAO, namely the observed trough over the Balkans that creates potential instability and favors precipitation. The SNAO is generally projected to trend upwards in CMIP3 models, leading to a consistent signal of precipitation reduction in NW Europe, but the intensity of the trend varies greatly across models, resulting in large uncertainties in the magnitude of the projected drying. In the Mediterranean, because the simulated influence of the SNAO is too weak, no precipitation increase occurs even in the presence of a strong SNAO trend, reducing confidence in these projections

A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis

EEWW: a generator for e+e−→W+W−e^+e^- \to W^+W^- including one-loop and leading photonic two-loop corrections

We describe a generator for the process $e^+e^- \to W^+W^-$ including all one-loop and leading log photonic two-loop contributions. It includes polarization of the beam and $W$ bosons, and the possibility to study the effect of anomalous couplings.Comment: 13 pages latex with 2 figures ps; also available as http://pss058.psi.ch/preprints/eewwmc.ps; PSI-PR-94-16 (added two references